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Gro Intelligence’s in-house team of climate and data scientists have built the Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture to help traders and analysts get the clearest signals for supply and price. This Application offers significant improvement over traditional weather analysis by providing a crop-weighted view of growing conditions around the world. Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture allows users to compare current growing conditions with over 20 years of historical data to evaluate crop strength and identify analogous periods.

Why Climate Risk Modeling Is the Key to Superior Commodity Analysis

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Jon has been working in agricultural commodities trading and research for the past 14 years, covering both grains and softs. Before joining Gro, he served as a portfolio manager at Jamison Capital Partners where he was responsible for the firm’s agriculture trading strategy. He holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from Cornell University and is a CFA charterholder. 

Jonathan Haines

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Senior Research Analyst

The 2022 USDA acreage report marks only the second time in history that US farmers will plant more soybeans than corn. In a tight corn market facing supply disruptions due to drought conditions in South America and the war in Ukraine, US corn production will be critical to ensure quality global supply.&nbsp;Join us Thursday, August 4, 10-11 AM EST for our highly regarded 2022 US Corn &amp; Soy Outlook webinar. In this webinar, Gro Intelligence’s Research Analysts will present Gro’s yield model forecasts for corn and soy ahead of the USDA’s first surveyed yields estimates for the year. We will also consider the long-term global impact and expectations for the upcoming South American growing season.

2022 US Corn & Soy Outlook and the Long-Term Global Impact

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Will has been a research analyst in agricultural commodities for over a decade. Before joining Gro, he was a strategist at Balyasny Asset Management with a focus on oilseeds. Prior to that, he worked at Yannix Management covering grains and oilseeds. At Perennial Management he was in charge of sugar research and trading as well as conducting coffee, cocoa and macroeconomic research. Will started his career at AIG in the Hedge Fund Strategies group. Will earned a Bachelor of Science & Engineering in Operations Research and Financial Engineering from Princeton University and is a CFA charter holder.

William Osnato

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Kelly has more than 10 years of experience in commodity analytics. Prior to joining Gro, Kelly spent many years working at a hedge fund and a commercial trading house. Kelly understands the ins and outs of commodity analysis but more importantly a client’s needs in regard to trading, hedging, and procurement decisions. Kelly holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Lehigh University.

Kelly Goughary

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Crops like cocoa, coffee, and sugar where global production is concentrated in a few small regions are increasingly being affected by changes in climate and weather. West Africa’s cocoa belt is experiencing greater bouts of dry weather and potentially faces long-term displacement. Similarly, coffee-growing areas of Brazil have seen increased rainfall variability. Recent droughts have driven significant inflation for food producers in the US, and future planning and sourcing decisions must consider the impact presented by climate change.Join us Thursday, May 19, 10-11 AM EST as we evaluate growing conditions for the major soft commodities in 2022, and the implications for prices and availability for this year and beyond using the Gro Intelligence Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture and the Gro Drought Index.

2022 Risks Across Cocoa, Sugar, and Coffee: Global Growing Conditions and Climate 

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Sylwia Padiasek focuses on coffee research and soft commodities. Sylwia joined Gro after working in specialty coffee procurement in New York, where she focused on transparent, sustainable, mutually beneficial and fair trade relationships within the full supply chain. She’s a CQI Certified Arabica Q-grader. She holds a MSc. in Sustainability in Agriculture from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna and a B.Eng. in Food Technology from Warsaw University of Life Sciences.

Sylwia Padiasek

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Global wheat supplies are tight due to drought conditions in the US and Canada. War between Russia and Ukraine, the two big agricultural producers, as well as Western sanctions against Russia, could heighten market volatility further. Southern Hemisphere harvests may be needed to relieve the pressure, as well as abundant Northern Hemisphere spring wheat harvests in 2022.In this webinar, Gro Intelligence’s research analysts will share our analysis of supply and demand for wheat globally. We will demonstrate how you can monitor the upcoming wheat crops to form projections for next season and facilitate planning for your business.

Global Wheat Outlook Amid the Russia-Ukraine Conflict 

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As we approach the 2022 US spring planting season, the world faces tight supplies across multiple crops. US wheat supplies are at the tightest level in 7 years while US corn supplies remain tight. US corn buyers face their second tightest market since 2012. The return of La Niña could bring big ramifications for crops in 2022. Accurate planting intentions estimates are paramount in predicting available supply in the US over the next year.In this webinar, Gro Intelligence’s research analysts will share our forecast of US planting intentions for the 2022 season. Gro’s US Planting Intentions Model allows users to project how much crop will be available in the coming year based on producers’ planting intentions for each of the major crops.

What Will US Farmers Plant in 2022?

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Mintak has worked in agricultural commodities for over 15 years, most recently with Bunge as a senior analyst in business intelligence and oilseeds research. Prior to Bunge he served as a senior strategist and analyst with Wilton Agricultural Strategies and Ospraie Management where he covered a variety of commodities including energy, biofuels and freight. Prior to his commodities career, he worked in high-tech in Silicon Valley for several years. Mintak holds a B.A. in Human Biology with a concentration in Virology from Stanford University.

Mintak Joo

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Broiler chicken producer margins today are the determining factor of supply and price tomorrow. With Gro’s instantly available, up-to-date data on broiler margins, chicken buyers and broader market participants can now immediately visualize cost and revenue to position themselves for the price of chicken in the future. In this webinar, Gro’s team of expert research analysts will demonstrate the scalability of Gro’s newly launched Broiler Chicken Margin Monitor and how it forecasts chicken supply and price. They will also discuss how it applies to procurement strategies, sales forecasts, and research reports. With the app, spend more time on analysis and less on data aggregation.

Overview

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Prior to joining Gro, Grady was the liaison between the data management teams and the price forecasting teams at Informa Economics. He served as head of Informa’s Poultry and Eggs and as a senior analyst for Grains and Oilseeds. After beginning his career as a ranch hand, Grady earned an honors Economics degree from the University of Colorado at Boulder and spent several years originating and merchandising grain in Ohio and Indiana. This led to a physical commodities trading position, which focused heavily on the feed sector. Grady has a master’s in Agricultural Economics from the University of Tennessee. 

Grady Ferguson

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Eduardo has over 23 years of experience working in the financial markets. He was most recently at Pana LCE, a private equity shop, as a consultant assisting the firm with their due diligence on early-stage companies in the agriculture space. Prior to that, Eduardo was a portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management where he managed an equities Agriculture fund and was a portfolio manager on the Commodities fund covering agriculture and chemical equities and futures.

Eduardo Gonzalez, CFA, CAIA

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Equity Strategist

Understanding Broiler Chicken Producer Margins, Supply, and Price

Supply, demand, and trade determine a country's stocks-to-use and are a key driver of price. Building a balance sheet gives you a complete understanding of the dynamics of the market, showing the direction of availability and price with dynamic inputs. Join the Gro Intelligence analyst team as we walk through the key components of our complete and proprietary balance sheet - including the Gro Yield Forecast model, demand for processing and feed, and trade that give a data-driven, objective view of market movements.

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Building Global Balance Sheets for Corn, Soy, and Wheat

Knowing a location's in-season production and price provides a time to market and purchasing advantage. Additionally, mapping historical production and freight rates over in-season estimates gives both a systematic, unbiased view of the local conditions and also a more realistic view of lending risk profiles. In this webinar, Gro Intelligence will walk through the components of a location-based view of in-season production, using cash bid prices to estimate the addressable market as an arc moving outward from each location. The Gro Supply Location Monitor uses Gro's yield forecasts for specific locations with cash grain bids and freight prices to estimate the local market by facility.

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Planning Corn and Soy Supply

Food price inflation is at its highest level in a decade. Years of destocking of major agricultural products around the globe collided with surprisingly strong demand as many nations’ economies recover from COVID-19 and China rebuilds its enormous hog herd. New issues ranging from labor shortages to intense drought could prolong the period of high prices. In this presentation, Gro Intelligence Research Analysts will provide an in-depth look at what led to this high-price environment and which Gro analytics and forecast models will be key to predicting how long it will last.

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What Is Driving Global Food Inflation?

A global understanding of the impact of climate change and extreme weather is critical when dealing with dynamic supply chains. Gro Intelligence provides the data and solutions that enable customers to form the most detailed picture of weather conditions and to mitigate weather-related risk. In this presentation, we’ll walk through how to monitor growing conditions such as soil moisture, vegetation, and evapotranspiration. Using the Growing Conditions app, we will show you how to map growing conditions and how they relate to past growing seasons and crop yields.

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Before joining Gro, Jacques interned in the market risk department at JP Morgan, in grain trading operations at Freepoint Commodities and in options trading at Gelber Group. He graduated from Fordham University in 2020 with a finance major and a math minor. Jacques is currently pursuing an MS in Computer Science from Georgia Tech.

Jacques Paye

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Research Analyst

Monitor Growing Conditions Across Regions and Crops

Detecting drought early allows for advance business planning to mitigate potential negative consequences of unfavorable growing conditions. Drought is also a key risk factor for wildfires, dust storms, and water stress. In this webinar, we will walk through the 46 publicly available data sources that the Gro team evaluated as we built a comprehensive index - the Gro Drought Index.

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When Does Drought Matter? Assessing the Short and Long Term Impact of Drought

Palm oil is a key component in everything from chocolate to toothpaste, but global production is highly concentrated, with over 80% of the world’s production coming from the neighboring countries of Malaysia and Indonesia. The geographical concentration of supply means this key agricultural commodity – and the supply chain of every company that relies on it – is extremely vulnerable to climatic or political disruption. Join us as we demonstrate new methods for monitoring climate risk to this key supply chain, and show approaches to preventing supply interruptions and forecasting potential disruptions to the companies that rely on palm oil.

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What is the Connection Between Palm Oil, Climate, and Global Supply Chains?

India is an increasingly important player in global agricultural markets, and in recent months has been roiled by large farmer protests about the government’s planned reforms to agricultural policy.Given Gro’s commitment to sharing insights that not only drive value for businesses but also unlock benefits for society, we are hosting a public webinar about the structure of Indian agriculture and the data underlying the present issues.Gro has created a new <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9M3AQ0qM">India Food Price Index</a> which measures food inflation on a real-time basis. Gro has also created a series of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9M3AQ0qM">Retail Price Volatility Indices</a> which capture price volatility per product. We believe these models will be transformational for understanding and anticipating food and agricultural market dynamics in India.

<ul><li>An overview of the major crops in India and India's place in the global market</li><li>An introduction to the structure of farming in India</li><li>Gro's new India Food Price Inflation Index – a real-time measure of food inflation based on a consumption-weighted basket of products</li><li>Gro's new Food Price Volatility metric – measures the historic speed of price changes for individual food items</li></ul>

What we'll cover:

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A Quantitative Look at Farmer Protests in India

World wheat prices are on the rise as supplies are limited and major producers Russia and Ukraine impose limits on exports to control domestic food prices. Poor crops in Argentina and the EU in 2020 reduced global supplies, and drought in the winter wheat regions of Russia, Ukraine, and the US threaten the next crop. At the same time, China has emerged as a growing source of demand as it attempts to fill a substantial grain deficit.In this webinar, Gro will show you which data we used to assess the impact of trade restrictions, and we will share our analysis of supply and demand for wheat globally. Finally we will demonstrate how you can monitor the upcoming wheat crops to form projections for next season and facilitate planning for your business.

The Global Wheat Balance Sheet

<ul><li>An overview of the wheat market</li><li>Current trade restrictions</li><li>Global supply &amp; demand balance analysis for Russia, Argentina, Australia, China, and the United States</li><li>The new crops in the Black Sea region, the United States, and India</li><li>An analysis that puts it all together</li></ul>

In This Webinar We Will Discuss

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Will Trade Restrictions and Crop Prospects Curtail Wheat Supplies?

In a year when China’s appetite for feed grain is disrupting corn and soybean balance sheets worldwide and drought brought on by La Niña is hurting yields across the region, South America’s growing season bears watching closely. The region’s importance to global supplies was underlined in the USDA’s November WASDE report, which nearly doubled the estimate for Chinese corn imports in the upcoming year.

All Eyes on South America

As a follow up to our webinar on South America's growing season, Gro hosted a technical review of our Brazil and Argentina Yield Models for corn and soy. The technical review discusses how we built the models and model features, model performance as backtested, and the use of crop masks. We also look at an analysis of how different yield scenarios in South America will impact global balance sheets and prices.

Technical Review

<ul><li>The threat of drought and dry conditions and the impact on production forecasts</li><li>How La Niña is affecting&nbsp;Argentina's and Brazil's newly planted corn crops</li><li>The links between China's rebounding hog herd and feed demand, and corn and soybean yields in South America</li></ul>

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Yiqing has been a data scientist at Gro for five years, developing agricultural models using machine-learning techniques. Before joining Gro, Yiqing was a postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications at the University of Minnesota. Yiqing holds a B.S. in Mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China, and a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science from University of Pennsylvania.

Yiqing Cai

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Senior Data Scientist 

What Will South America's Growing Season Look Like?

La Niña is a climate pattern which can trigger large shifts in weather—making some parts of the world hotter and drier, and others cooler and wetter in—that can persist for several seasons, with significant impacts on global agriculture. In this webinar, join us for a discussion on how to understand and anticipate the main effects of La Niña on agricultural markets, particularly for corn, soy, wheat, palm oil, coffee, sugar, and cocoa.

Unusual Weather Patterns Affect Global Agriculture

<ul><li>How corn and soybean markets around the world will feel the impact of drought in South America</li><li>How La Niña will affect nearly every major wheat producing region in the world</li><li>The potential impact of increased rainfall in Southeast Asia on palm oil</li><li>Risks for coffee and sugar production</li></ul>

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How Will La Niña Affect Global Agricultural Markets?

As the meat industry returns to something approaching pre-COVID levels of operation, it is tempting to return to planning for business as usual. A glut of cattle developed as processing slowed to a crawl in the spring, but this is not the kind of oversupply the market is used to seeing. Join us for a conversation as the Gro team works through the implications of this unusual market distortion, and discusses different models for how the market will find a new equilibrium.This is the first in a series of webinars Gro will host about the global protein market. Look out for more on this topic later in the fall, including installments on how alternative proteins and changing demand for animal protein will impact global agricultural markets.

Not Oversupply as Usual

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Working Through the COVID Cattle Glut

This has been an exceptional year for the US Midwest. Corn and soybeans are heading toward record yields, but the derecho wind storm has raised concerns ahead of harvest. High yields this season will have major impacts on prices and balance sheets worldwide, so crop conditions and yield forecasts are even more important than usual during this exceptional year.

Mixed Signals Ahead of Potential Record Harvests

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Steve leads Gro’s analyst and rapid response modeling team. Before joining Gro, Steve worked as a portfolio manager and the head of commodities research at Tudor Investment Corporation. During his tenure there, he developed extensive commodities analysis software and conducted practical studies of agriculture, energy, and metals.

Steve Mathews

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SVP Financial Services 

US 2020 Midwest Crop Conditions

In this webinar, we discuss Mexico’s transformation from regional player to global powerhouse, and its growing influence on produce markets in the United States. We will also walk through several analyses looking at price, logistics, production, and trade data to illustrate the complexity of Mexico’s mosaic of regions and cultivars.&nbsp;

From Regional Player to Global Powerhouse

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Prior to joining Gro Intelligence, Stefan interned at the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) in Geneva, Switzerland, where he researched and analyzed fiscal policy and trade data in Sub-Saharan Africa. Throughout college, Stefan also worked as a research fellow and assistant for several professors, in fields ranging from economics to anthropology. Stefan has also spent numerous summers teaching English, math, and finance in both Morocco and Kenya.

Stefan Oliva

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Price and Logistics Analysis for Fresh Produce in Mexico

Gro’s recent analysis of volatility in produce prices shows that, while COVID-19 has had a major impact on prices, fresh produce has long been one of the most volatile markets in the world. During this webinar, we will introduce a new, data-driven approach to produce price analysis and discuss how it can be used to better manage buying and marketing decisions in fresh produce.

COVID-19 and Retail Price Volatility

Prior to founding Gro, Sara was a Vice President in Morgan Stanley’s commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and subsequently moved to trading, where she managed an options trading portfolio.  Sara is a Trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a Trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Sara was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.  Sara received a B.A. in Economics and African Studies at Mount Holyoke College and the London School of Economics and an M.B.A. from Columbia University.

Sara Menker

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CEO and Founder

A New Lens on Produce Markets

The rapid spread of COVID-19 has led to unprecedented supply chain disruptions worldwide, as well as significant commodity price volatility. The pandemic first brought China, and now the US, to a grinding halt. Yet backward looking government indicators of economic activity remain woefully inadequate for real time analysis, particularly when the situation changes so dramatically every day. For example, our China agricultural price index anticipates China’s official food CPI by two months. Gro’s agricultural price indices were specifically designed to solve this critical market deficiency. Each index is built on the Gro data platform, which contains hundreds of thousands of unique price series at the national, regional, and local levels (e.g., cities, processing facilities, grain elevators, and ports). We aggregate this local price data for each country, using a basket that represents the food consumption expenditures within the economy.&nbsp;

Using Food Baskets to Manage Risk

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Prior to joining Gro, Steve spent 11 years as a Commodity Analyst at Tudor Investment Corporation. In that role, his main responsibility was to forecast supply/demand balances for various commodity markets. In addition, he developed software and analytics to support portfolio managers and constructed quantitative trading strategies. Steve holds a B.A. from Brown University in Business Economics and Public & Private Sector Organizations. He was also a member of the Track & Field team at Brown.

Steve Bernardi

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US and China Agricultural Price Indices

COVID-19 and shelter-in-place measures have driven oil prices to record lows, which is having significant effects on global agriculture from Iowa to Indonesia. In the United States, nearly 40% of corn planted is destined for ethanol, and plunging ethanol prices will likely shift the balance of corn and soy planted in 2020. Brazil’s production of sugar is also likely to shift as ethanol production grinds to a halt, just as biodiesel blending has largely stopped in Malaysia and Indonesia. In this webinar, we will dive deeper into what’s currently happening in global agricultural markets and provide tools for monitoring the leading indicators using Gro.

How Record Low Oil Prices Are Impacting Agriculture

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Eric joined Gro Intelligence from the Morris Arboretum at the University of Pennsylvania and focused on urban forestry and natural resource management. Prior to Penn, Eric was a graduate research assistant at Bowling Green State University where he analyzed the effects of invasive species, land use, and climate change on carbon and nutrient cycling in forest and agricultural soils. As an undergraduate at Colgate University, Eric researched the effects of acid rain on soil chemistry and plant nutrient acquisition.   Eric holds an M.S. in Soil Biology from Bowling Green State University and a B.A. in Biology from Colgate University. 

Eric Moore

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The Impact of Energy Prices on Agricultural Commodities

The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted global shipping and consumer demand at a time when the agricultural economy is already facing a series of major supply shocks. These events together have the potential to generate ripple effects through the broader macroeconomy for some time to come. In this webinar, we demonstrate how to use Gro's COVID-19 Monitoring Kit to gain real-time insight into this dynamic situation and its effects on global agricultural markets.&nbsp;

Monitoring the Impact of COVID-19 in Real Time

<ul><li>Gro’s yield forecast models for major agricultural regions such as Brazil, Argentina, the US, the Black Sea Region, and India</li><li>The pandemic's effect on trade and inventory balances</li><li>Prices as leading indicators of market perceptions</li><li>The effects of COVID-19 on Chinese agriculture</li></ul>

Webinars