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Featured

India’s wheat production could decline in 2024/25, keeping domestic prices elevated and increasing pressure to extend the country’s current export ban.&nbsp;Low soil moisture levels, a consequence of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-s-erratic-monsoon-could-hurt-soybean-crop-and-drive-up-edible-oil-imports" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">below-normal monsoon</a> rains triggered in part by El Niño, are forcing some farmers to switch to less water intensive crops such as chickpeas or sorghum. India, the No. 3 wheat producer worldwide, already is grappling with low supplies — the country’s wheat stocks are at their third-lowest level in 15 years as a result of a big jump in exports in the previous two years, as seen with&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3raZn9o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s India Wheat Yield Model &amp; Balance Sheet</a>.&nbsp;In Uttar Pradesh, the largest wheat producing state, soil moisture is at one of the lowest levels since at least 2010, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, weighted for the state’s wheat growing areas. Other wheat producing states, including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, also suffered from erratic rainfall during the June-September monsoon, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/K9pp20X9E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;The currently strengthening El Niño could bring additional unfavorable weather for India’s wheat crop, especially during the critical December-March growth phase. An earlier El Niño event fueled high temperatures in India, hurting&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EBj1rdA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat yields</a> in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 crop years. India’s wheat crop is planted in October and November and harvested beginning in March.Gro’s yield forecast model, part of our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/models/india-wheat-yield-model" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India Wheat Yield Model &amp; Balance Sheet</a>, will go live in mid-December when the crop gets established.&nbsp;A smaller wheat crop could exacerbate India’s domestic food price inflation, which has been rising since 2021. India last year&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-wheat-export-ban-risks-inflaming-food-insecurity-worldwide" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">restricted exports</a> of wheat, wheat flour, and sugar in an effort to rein in prices. In July, it also banned exports of non-basmati white rice, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/wheat-futures-spike-on-russian-escalation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. But those efforts have done little to curb rising food prices, in part because of India’s tight domestic wheat supplies.&nbsp;The Indian government recently raised its minimum support prices for wheat and lentils by over 7% for the 2024/25 crop year in an effort to encourage farmers to plant the two crops.India historically swings between being a net importer and a net exporter of wheat depending on the country’s harvest. A lower crop could force the country to be a net importer of wheat for the first time since 2017.&nbsp;

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India’s Wheat Crop Could Falter for 2024/25 as El Niño Strengthens

US potato farmers grew nearly 20 million tonnes of the crop in 2023, a&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWN4L9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">jump of 9%</a> from last year and the first time since 2017 that production increased for America’s most widely consumed vegetable.&nbsp;The surfeit of spuds has ramped up supplies and eased prices for food manufacturers.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/commodities-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Commodities Tracker</a>, which predicts the six-month supply risk for crops in the world’s major producing regions, shows the US is at a “Low” Supply Risk Level for potatoes, meaning the commodity is well supplied and price is not expected to increase significantly.&nbsp;Meanwhile, average producer prices for potatoes have dropped sharply since July and are currently down by more than 50% from a year earlier, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/crop-insights/potatoes/united-states/price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Commodities Tracker display</a>.&nbsp;With prices lower, supermarket discounts on frozen french fries, largely absent during the COVID pandemic, have reappeared. And a major fast food chain is offering a “Free Fries Friday” promotion through the end of the year.&nbsp;Behind the abundance of tubers: Farmers increased their 2023 potato acreage in Idaho, Colorado, and North Dakota, boosting total area planted to potatoes by 3.3% from a year earlier, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWN4L9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> shows.&nbsp;Growing conditions also favored higher potato yields. In Idaho, which accounts for about one-third of total US production, Gro Drought Index readings this season were down significantly from the previous year, and soil moisture levels rose, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22Potatoes%22&amp;region_id=13063" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, weighted for Idaho’s potato growing areas.&nbsp;&nbsp;As a result,&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWN4L9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">potato yields</a> in Idaho rose by 5% from a year earlier to 717 bushels per acre. In Washington, the No. 2 producing state, potato yields were up 6% to 1,025 bu/acre.&nbsp;The US is among the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d5zExDq0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">top five potato producing and exporting countries</a>, with most of the harvest going to food manufacturers for use in french fries, chips, dehydrated potatoes, and other products.&nbsp;The year’s bigger potato crop also has contributed to greater&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6RwovrWRW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US exports</a>, which are up 6% year to date compared to a year earlier. Top markets include Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.Meanwhile, this year’s potato imports slowed in the July-September period — when they were down 20% from a year earlier — although imports are up 10% year to date. In 2022, US potato imports hit a record high, with shipments from Canada, the main supplier, at 36% above the previous five-year average. The US typically imports less than half a million tonnes of potatoes a year.&nbsp;Canadian 2023 potato production is estimated to be slightly above&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3oM4rdo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">last year’s record</a>, despite higher drought levels in the big prairie producing provinces of Alberta and Manitoba, as measured by the Gro Drought Index, which can be seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22Potatoes%22&amp;region_id=10558%2C10556" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Climate Risk Navigator display</a>.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1700594811/new-website/US_Potato_Production_Rises_for_First_Time_in_7_Years_e5d0d898a1.png"></figure>

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9% Jump in US Potato Production Brings Down Prices 

Recent rains have eased&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/worsening-argentine-drought-drives-record-us-soymeal-exports" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drought conditions</a> in Argentina’s soybean- and corn-growing regions. And with longer-term forecasts calling for more rainfall in the coming months, the country’s production looks likely to rebound from last year’s weak harvest.&nbsp;Argentina is normally the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and oil, so increased soybean production will bolster global supply chains for the commodities. A 43% plunge in last year’s Argentine soybean crop — and a resulting 22% year-over-year decline in its soymeal exports — has pushed&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kR0MQJw9z" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean meal futures</a> up by 10% year over year and driven competing&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3WeGdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US soymeal exports</a> to record levels for this time of year.&nbsp;Prospects have now improved for Argentina’s soybeans, which are currently being planted. Recent rains, which may have been helped by El Niño, have lowered Gro Drought Index readings and boosted soil moisture levels since mid-October, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, which can be weighted for a specific crop and region.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/JqYKwDE98" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Soybean production</a> is currently estimated to nearly double from last year.&nbsp;Conditions also have improved for Argentina’s new corn crop, though “moderate” drought levels, as measured by the Gro Drought Index, persist in the biggest corn growing provinces, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22MAGyP+Corn+%28Argentina+only%29%22&amp;region_id=10156%2C10141%2C10136" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display</a>. Argentina is the third-largest corn exporter, after Brazil and the US.&nbsp;Gro’s machine-learning crop yield forecast models, included in our&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxByngR2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">South America Corn</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daEeD7dn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Soybean Production Monitors</a>, will begin generating daily updated forecasts in mid-December when the crops become established.&nbsp;However, for Argentina’s wheat crop, which is currently being harvested, the easing drought conditions came too late. Severe drought for much of the season — the second worst in 20 years — weighed heavily on wheat yields, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22MAGyP+Wheat+%28Argentina+only%29%22&amp;region_id=1010" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Navigator display</a>. The USDA recently sharply cut its estimate for Argentina’s wheat harvest, though production is still expected to top last year’s output, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/usda-slightly-raises-its-outlook-for-us-corn-and-soybeans" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;In 2022, La Niña fueled drought conditions for Argentine crops. Now, El Niño is strengthening, which typically brings higher precipitation to northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. The US Climate Prediction Center forecasts an 88% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through at least May 2024, which bodes well for Argentina’s corn and soy crops.&nbsp;Previous El Niño years, including 2019 and 2015, saw higher Argentine corn and soybean yields compared with La Niña years, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/JqYKwDE98" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Gro’s medium- to long-term weather forecasts indicate favorable growing conditions for Argentina’s soy and corn crops could persist, with increased precipitation and milder temperatures expected from December through April, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOb3Me9w" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> highlights. However, forecasts made months in advance contain a high degree of uncertainty.&nbsp;Meanwhile, in Brazil, with a soybean crop roughly triple the size of Argentina’s, planting has been delayed due to increasing dryness in the country’s main soy-producing states, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybean-planting-slows-as-dry-conditions-spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, although forecasted rains for this week could aid the crop. A late soybean crop also could set back Brazil’s second corn crop, or safrinha, which goes in the ground after soybean harvest in February. Gro’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxByngR2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">South America Corn</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daEeD7dn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Soybean Production Monitors</a> allow users to monitor Brazil’s crop progress.

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Recent Rains and Upbeat Forecast Revive Prospects for Argentina Corn, Soybeans

As extreme weather continues worldwide, monitoring and accurately quantifying hot and dry conditions can help quantitative and financial teams stay ahead of major commodity market movements. To address these needs, Gro Intelligence, an AI-driven data and analytics company helping businesses, financial institutions, and governments make better decisions on food security and climate risk, has built the Gro Drought Index (GDI). The GDI is a proprietary index of global drought and a high-signal indicator of major agricultural trends such as abandoned acres, yields, and prices.In this report, we explore two case studies where the GDI led futures prices and presented signals for profitable trades: US hard red winter wheat and US cotton.You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Quantitative and fundamental analysts can use the Gro Drought Index to focus on drought impact in crop-growing areas and anticipate potential threats to production and prices</li><li>Early on in a crop's growing season, the Gro Drought Index can provide an assessment of the potential for abandoned acres (a key indicator of price) in a growing region, down to the county level</li><li>There is a significant linear relationship between average monthly Gro Drought Index readings and the average monthly price of major agricultural commodities</li></ul><a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/using-the-gro-drought-index-as-a-high-signal-trading-indicator" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here</a>.

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Using the Gro Drought Index as a High-Signal Trading Indicator for Agricultural Commodities

Gro Intelligence has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro's data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through artificial intelligence, generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;In this report, we focus on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Models for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton.&nbsp;You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September. Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September for the last four years.</li><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s suite of machine-learning models provide an unprecedented combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates to enable our customers to move ahead of the market.</li></ul>Download the 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models?utm_campaign=End%20of%20the%20Year%20Report%20-%20January%202023&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--DAawbx4JnPmIhs6GrNfist1fGwSINeh_jnpFQ9_1aaJrTOxCIMEY1Xq-DyHJPXbhZ9TUpn5frwnku07Tb0UXCk7b3NiU9gn6sw5XtheL7Ena6_aw&amp;utm_content=2&amp;utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.

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2022 Performance Report: Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models

In this report, we will talk about how to use growing and climate conditions in a systematic way to better anticipate impact on final yield throughout the growing season—from planting to harvest.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/incorporating-climate-into-agricultural-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here.</a>

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Incorporating Climate Into Agricultural Forecasting

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

Gro Intelligence’s machine learning predictive yield models are a core component of Gro’s suite of innovative agricultural analytics products. Yield is a key driver of the supply and price of agricultural commodities, and Gro’s daily-updating models enable partners to anticipate demand and inform strategy days or even weeks ahead of market-moving yield estimates published each month by the USDA. They also accurately predict end-of-season yield several months in advance of final government reporting.&nbsp;&nbsp;Gro’s yield forecast models provide in-season, daily updates across the US, China, Argentina, Brazil, India, Canada, Australia and the Black Sea region, and cover over 90% of global soybean exports, 70% of global corn exports, and 50% of global wheat exports. Our models can be used as a leading indicator, available months in advance of market-moving government yield estimates and corresponding changes in futures prices.&nbsp;One of the most important differentiators of Gro’s models is that they update every single day, whereas the next most reliable sources in the US, for example, are weekly crop conditions reports or monthly yield forecasts provided by the USDA.&nbsp;<img class="image_resized" style="width:72.39%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/sPnI3umaFFnunJkK__08ANVsdgdX6uhXhjFV_g_EtZdZoGaoGHzULvNsEQ33KCjHmc-8vPyOJsfSyD1yatNVKvUsrIj_qRfhd6cjd4pxI2B8tOPx3PqJfdK8tJRjJ_lu52fPzhgu9RVZyai_LL4gU_E">Each day, Gro automatically calculates a prediction of yield based on the best currently available sets of satellite and weather station data. Our models are also designed to be flexible and resilient; If any upstream data source is obstructed, delayed or otherwise offline on a given day, the models adapt by re-weighting available auxiliary data sources and filling in the gaps in the calculation accordingly.&nbsp;Most users of yield models may not require insight into yield forecasts every single day. However, a key purpose of the daily-updating feature of Gro’s models is to provide the most up-to-date information at any given moment, giving users the flexibility and confidence to take action anytime important decisions are imminent.&nbsp;Another critical outcome of the daily-updating feature is that users can discover multi-day trends in daily weather conditions that could impact crop health. These discoveries often precede government reporting and the subsequent reaction in the crop futures markets. The path of the daily values is therefore particularly useful for agribusinesses, financial traders, insurance negotiators, procurement officers, and others, to get ahead of forthcoming market-moving news out of the USDA and equivalent institutions globally.&nbsp;To learn more about Gro’s Yield models, read our recent yield model Q&amp;A&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/blog/q-and-a-deep-dive-into-gro-s-predictive-yield-models">here</a>, or reach out for a demo through the link&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo">here</a>.&nbsp; &nbsp;

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Need for Speed: How Gro's Daily-Updating Yield Forecast Models Enable Market-Beating Moves

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AI & The Future of Food Security: Using AI to Build Food System Resilience and Opportunity in a Changing Climate

What is a crop yield model? What models does Gro Intelligence currently produce?&nbsp;A crop yield model is a supply prediction tool updated throughout the year for forecasting end-of-season yield for crops, based on environmental conditions and crop-health information.&nbsp;Gro has a growing catalog of yield forecasts as seen below along with the year we launched them:<ul><li>US:&nbsp;Corn (2016), Soy (2018), Winter Wheat (2019)</li><li>Argentina:&nbsp;Corn (2020), Soy (2020)</li><li>Australia:&nbsp;Wheat (2021)</li><li>Brazil:&nbsp;Corn (2020), Soy (2020)</li><li>Canada:&nbsp;Spring Wheat (2020)</li><li>China:&nbsp;Corn (2019), Wheat (2021)</li><li>India: Wheat (2018)</li><li>Russia:&nbsp;Winter Wheat (2019)</li><li>Ukraine:&nbsp;Wheat (2019)</li></ul>Gro’s models cover 90% of global soybean exports, 70% of global corn exports, and 50% of global wheat exports.&nbsp;Why are yield models important?Yield is the most important supply-side driver of the price of a commodity, and yield forecasts drive changes in the futures price. Governments and agribusinesses rely on such models to help manage foreseeable imbalances between food supply and demand.&nbsp; Financial traders buy or sell financial assets based on their expectations of changes in crop futures prices, and yield models are a significant input to their own predictive financial models.&nbsp;How are Gro’s yield models calculated?&nbsp;Our models begin with custom-built Gro crop masks, which are select land areas identified by satellite imagery that are designated for growing a specific crop.&nbsp; Within these crop masks, Gro’s models ingest data on environmental conditions such as: rainfall, drought, vegetative health and density, soil moisture, land surface temperature, soil properties, and more.&nbsp;An important predictive input for yield is NDVI, or normalized difference vegetation index, which uses satellite imagery to measure the amount and vigor of vegetation on the land surface and helps to distinguish plant life from surrounding soil. It is considered to be among the strongest indicators of crop health and of the potential for above or below average yield.&nbsp;Gro combines the satellite data with ‘ground truths,’ which are reliable and respected sources with at least a 20 year track record. These sources are typically official government-produced information, such as the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), or Brazil’s IBGE, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, for example.&nbsp;&nbsp;The ground truths include the history of a given region as well as neighboring regions, which allow Gro’s machine learning (ML) models to train the history for that time of year and any recorded impact on yield if and when those conditions changed.&nbsp;What makes Gro’s models unique?&nbsp;Daily updatesOne of the most important differentiators of our model is that they update daily, whereas the next most reliable sources in the US are weekly crop conditions reports and monthly yield forecasts provided by the USDA.&nbsp;Daily updates not only allow customers to have the most up-to-date information throughout the season, it also reveals multi-day trends in daily weather conditions that could impact crop health. The path of these trends is particularly useful to preempt the forecast changes that one might expect from government reports in the following week or month.&nbsp;&nbsp;Outside of Gro, customers often have zero visibility into daily changes in environmental conditions and crop conditions. The futures market reacts strongly to updates given monthly by the USDA because that has historically been the most timely and trusted update available. Severe weather, however, can have a significant impact on conditions in much narrower timeframes.&nbsp; A multi-day trend in extreme high or low precipitation and temperature can affect crop health and precede serious reactions in the crop futures markets. Alternatively, daily updates can also reveal when multi-trends are potentially reversing.&nbsp; With this capability, Gro’s models allow agribusiness, financial traders, insurance negotiators, procurement officers, and more, to get ahead of forthcoming market-moving news out of the USDA and equivalent institutions globally.&nbsp;Global coverage:In countries that have strong data reporting and analysis, Gro is able to produce highly accurate forecasts months ahead of final government reporting. Gro’s US yield model forecasts for final yield, for example, are released up to 4 months in advance of USDA’s January report, with 98% accuracy.&nbsp;&nbsp;In other parts of the world, however, data accessibility and validation can be extremely limited. However, thanks to powerful machine learning capabilities and strategic ground truth partnerships, Gro’s final yield models of these crop growing regions are still 95-98% accurate, and are available up to 10 months in advance of final government reports.&nbsp;Regional granularity:&nbsp;Beyond the obvious benefits of accurate predictions for national crop yields and futures prices, several commercial actors such as input companies, crop insurance companies, procurement professionals and food and beverage companies all seek to understand sub-national (county or district) level yield data.&nbsp;Gro’s yield models operate at the county or district level, can compare conditions between neighboring regions, and can also detect anomalies in yield forecasts within a given region from its 5 year average.&nbsp;What are some examples of how customers use these models?&nbsp;Commodity traders in the US are able to use Gro’s daily-updating yield models to get ahead of the weekly crop condition reports, and monthly USDA end-of-season forecasts, which typically influence the futures prices of agricultural commodities.&nbsp;&nbsp;Food and beverage company managers, procurement officers as well as insurance planners can utilize our yield models to identify threats to supply and demand and protect their business models against potential changes in commodity prices.&nbsp; They can compare data to the same region and time of year as years past to understand if trends are within a normal range of volatility, whether new records are being broken and/or whether permanent trends are emerging.&nbsp;How does Gro improve their models over time?&nbsp;Our models are engineered to calculate a set of variables that each have an assigned weight, depending on how much it typically influences end-of-season yield. These variables change in relative importance over the season depending on geography, weather conditions, historical data patterns, availability and recency of both ground truth and satellite data, and more. Each day, our yield models recalculate the forecast based on the best currently available sources of data and Gro is continuously studying new sources that could improve accuracy and timeliness.&nbsp;Is there anything else to note about Gro’s yield forecasting process?&nbsp;Gro’s yield forecast models remain highly accurate and available months ahead of official government reporting. We have over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro’s data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through artificial intelligence, generating predictive models and real-time applications.&nbsp;Please read our&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models">2022 Performance Report</a> for more detailed information.&nbsp;&nbsp;To schedule a demo of our yield models or other products, <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">click here.&nbsp;</a>

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Q&A: Deep Dive Into Gro's Predictive Yield Models

November SnapshotThe South American crop planting season is currently underway. Gro Intelligence data and applications like the Climate Risk Navigator provide insights into the conditions that can affect critical factors including planting timing, total area, and soil conditions for key crops in the region.&nbsp; In this November snapshot, learn what variables will be important to monitor over the coming months that determine a healthy start for Soybean and Corn production. Reach out to Gro with any questions on these and other crops, countries, displays, and curated datasets.&nbsp;|&nbsp;Soybeans<img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/HfrAX5m_jD_KnF5Xv6-hMUp-_T6vlo3V68hcFQG8SdtjUPeAvFJJxIxpQexd_u0EOFKwjAT4HqP7s2LJMb2DUAh_VNd7S6sfIfoR_IokmF2nJTRK1AFPgZc7akthHo4pMxDNyCL1YQ5AngsE36Z_LF8"> <img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/DZJ7Ct0OK9z9iqTbUIhKmVYj0xlHvrP97zpOXgFJlqJiincT87hrJ2UJXAE0Pk3nVWX4DFkRgNWU16Xo7fRlqhnVNDPtPABUt8M4AX66ZnmkuF0Ww0DMoNusf3kVoldPRI0Y0VRAk7knxSF2yRDftHM">Key Notes for November<ul><li>Soil moisture + Precipitation:&nbsp;Proper rainfall is key for crop conditions leading into the planting season. Soybeans require warm soil that is not too wet for optimal planting.&nbsp;</li><li>Drought:&nbsp;Severe drought ahead of the current Argentina soybean planting season is threatening to reduce total area and impact crop conditions. US soybean meal exports are reaching record highs in response. For more information, read this recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/worsening-argentine-drought-drives-record-us-soymeal-exports">Insight</a> from Gro.&nbsp;</li><li>Soybean planting in Brazil for the 2023/24 season has slowed as farmers struggle with excess rainfall in the southern states and increasing dryness in the country’s central soy-producing states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul.&nbsp;</li><li>Planting delays could leave the soybean crop vulnerable to excessive heat during the crop’s flowering and pod development phase in November and December. For more information, read this recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybean-planting-slows-as-dry-conditions-spread">Insight</a> from Gro.&nbsp;</li><li>Fertilizer: Dry conditions also hamper nutrient mobility within soils. Water is the main vehicle to deliver essential nutrients from the soil to the crops, either via synthetic fertilizers or organic matter.&nbsp;</li><li>Drought conditions tend to require higher nitrogen application rates due to the volatility of the nitrogen molecule. This process is called volatilization, and farmers sowing parched soils risk nitrogen deficiencies if adjustments to application rates are not made.</li></ul>Gro DisplaysGro Drought Index for Argentina soybean growing regions (as of 10.24.23)To interact with this Climate Risk Navigator display,&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/global-overview/?weight_names=%22Soybeans%22&amp;region_id=1010">click here</a>.<img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/7pXZAnFs7dQhOhpZ5fuMGvsa2Oa2AQCMXUCrr9lTreDP2VUzk1d2yhG-bPmOU2tcIqd_wH42x9FsayFKFhCQgLrcxKC6cKYDJnnJP87zx6TaK_2vkY-oGL7zsQ7hQj2GutP_w-BGh1uY4NnEvzE0680"> Gro Climate Risk Navigator - Soil Moisture for Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (as of 10.17.23)&nbsp;To interact with this Climate Risk Navigator display,&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/global-overview/?weight_names=%22Soybeans%22&amp;region_id=10417">click here</a>.<img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/G_yeGOVmUoMACyz7QZ9YNUUEWt9h8Cf77uhIqOSgTYzsl9DwERw6lIqzg4snlvOt8yxaI9QE26XlJFnE_5rhB-LAktBEiz2HqbZqLWChKE0HHJzup-FCXm2ncxrPXiA_lLYh4thCccMcwTowqDDWBQ8">&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;Corn<img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/h4j9GjL5-d68at0Icbx1A5SsN8xBTAO6y-OXTZpFZvPsYQ0OPSMeKbI7hhkao_6ih1-BbdXEJ0dydbSnYvpw3cOlUh4JEQNTH8LQsfiYrxB4uz07rv_8ip3NUbwVlYEkIpKd47F0wFWNqbsBZMXWvBM"><img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/EcZaCT5FsLPd6M92Z2ATD95P0UbdKGPeQnvZA-jCKhT6aIohxqIGC1uYmmZZWXmPTjXh6GSQGQeKFP1JHwGS3Mve8IFZV7QmWYhMwr8Hg0OGTxLhQieMquNAeNtk0VfR82wtMfgGG8YjFx9a-fiNBIg">Key Notes for November<ul><li>Precipitation: Rain has recently fallen in Argentina’s crop growing areas, but more is needed for healthy planting conditions.</li><li>Timely soybean planting is needed to give Brazil's second corn crop a good chance in 2024.</li></ul>Gro DisplaysGro Climate Risk Navigator - Precipitation in Argentina corn growing regions (as of 10.24.23)To interact with this Climate Risk Navigator display,&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/global-overview/?weight_names=%22Corn%22&amp;region_id=1010">click here</a>.&nbsp;<img class="image_resized" style="width:75%;" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/QtmWhms-M2iwuIKRAe8IXWbIv59X_y016HS81_wQf93hcJHbvqLO6e7OUfAfnX3nzu0yosbR7yTuHxeaAcPBKLcB65tAaUQUzn8Ywh6jzvL7FnqVN47VIFEvMN_8Qvjbd0BJcNf4toe1zb_XAAKKSvU">Questions?&nbsp;Reach out to Gro at sales@gro-intelligence.com.

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South America: Fall Planting Snapshot

Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, heat waves, and heavy rainfall are becoming more intense and more frequent every year, disrupting the global agricultural supply chain.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, “even relatively small incremental increases in global warming (+0.5°C) cause statistically significant changes in extremes on the global scale…In particular, this is the case for temperature extremes (very likely), the intensification of heavy precipitation (high confidence), and the worsening of droughts in some regions (high confidence).”Navigating these events will require businesses to leverage data to adapt risk management strategies, procurement practices, and supply chain infrastructure.&nbsp;The role of historical data in agricultural, climate, and economic analysisHistorical data is a crucial input to agricultural, climate, and economic analysis, and serves as the foundation for understanding impact when businesses face disruption to “normal” operating conditions.&nbsp; This information can help businesses decide how and when to secure supply, hedge opportunities, adjust order volume, or increase insurance coverage.&nbsp;For example, when droughts hit certain crop-producing regions, agribusinesses or traders can use historical data to compare conditions to previous years, and identify what key determinators (e.g. precipitation and land surface temperature) warrant more attention in the following months to understand whether the crop yield could recover by harvest time.&nbsp;How technology is making complex historical data more accessibleAccessing and interpreting historical data has always been a challenge for businesses. Agricultural, climate, and economic data is typically siloed, produced without context or intuitive query tools. Combining these disparate data sets to form a comprehensive narrative is often a manual and expensive proposition that requires several third-party services — a challenge for even the most dedicated and well-funded research experts.&nbsp;Real-world research and reporting requires a multi-layered approach to historical data. For instance, the rise in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is coinciding with rapidly developing infrastructure and increasingly vulnerable legacy infrastructure in exposed areas. By 2050, an estimated 800 million people will live in more than 570 coastal cities that are vulnerable to a 0.5 meter rise in sea level.2&nbsp; This type of interconnected statistic requires an understanding of complex sets of historical socio-economic, climate, topographical and anthropogenic data.&nbsp;AI and machine learning (ML) models have now made it possible to ingest enormous sets of historical data, enabling researchers to visualize conditions on the ground throughout time. These ML models can find connections between inputs and outputs that were previously too complex or widespread for human researchers alone. They can shed light on the circumstances leading up to and following extreme events, or where subtle shifts to a “new normal” are occurring due to climate change.How Gro Intelligence uses decades of historical dataGro has built the world’s largest agriculture and climate data platform that ingests over 180,000 data sets from hundreds of sources, with history spanning decades, and in some instances, even centuries. The data contributes directly to Gro’s ability to provide highly accurate forecasts in global commodities markets, and insights into climate and economic impacts.&nbsp;For example, to find out how hurricanes are becoming more damaging and costly to the US, Gro’s ingests input data such as historical hurricane trajectories, maximum wind speeds, human population statistics, infrastructure locations and values, and more. Furthermore, projections for risk levels into the future require thousands of simulations to determine the areas at risk of damage given potential changes in climate and weather patterns and population trends.&nbsp;Gro’s models can generate a single risk score down to a specific state, district or crop growing region.Gro blends its historical data into its powerful predictive models which are curated, trained, and tested by a group of 50+ domain experts and data scientists. These models have been trained for over 7 years, allowing Gro to deliver accurate predictions to our commercial partners months ahead of government reporting.&nbsp;To learn more about Gro models,&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models">click here</a> to view Gro’s 2022 Performance Report.Sources:&nbsp;<ol><li>Rodell, M., Li B., Changing intensity of hydroclimatic extreme events revealed by GRACE and GRACE-FO,&nbsp;The Journal Nature Water. 2023</li><li>MacManus, K., Balk, D., Engin, H., McGranahan, G. and Inman, R. 2021. Estimating population and urban areas at risk of coastal hazards, 1990–2015: How data choices matter. Earth System Science Data</li><li>WEF 2019. The Global Risks Report 2019, 14th Edition. World Economic Forum</li></ol>

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Why Historical Data Matters In Unprecedented Times

Gro has produced a new report detailing the strong linear relationship between the Gro Drought Index (GDI) and the prices of agricultural commodities. The report highlights two case studies where the GDI, a proprietary, fully automated index of drought conditions worldwide, presented signals for profitable trades: US hard red winter (HRW) wheat and US cotton. This same analysis can be applied to Gro Intelligence’s offering across more than 40 commodities and all regions worldwide.&nbsp;Drought has a significant impact on global agricultural production, from abandoned acres (the amount of land that is unable to be harvested) to final yields. These factors can lead to increased volatility in commodity prices. As extreme weather continues worldwide, monitoring and accurately quantifying hot and dry conditions can help quantitative teams, including systematic and fundamental equity investors, to stay ahead of major commodity market movements.In the first case study, Gro looked at the relationship between average monthly GDI and the average monthly price of HRW wheat and found a significant linear relationship between the two variables with an R² of 0.74. This is important for investors, as it suggests a strong likelihood that&nbsp;GDI represents a meaningful indicator for fundamentally and systematically investing in the underlying commodity.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:74.68%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1695746397/new-website/image8_bf5f7b216d.png"></figure>In the report’s second case study, Gro analyzed the correlation between GDI versus both abandoned acres and final yield for US cotton. In July, for example, GDI and abandoned acres in cotton-growing regions in Texas (where approximately 50% of US production comes from) had an R² of 0.74. With respect to final yield, GDI had an R² of 0.61, again indicating a strong linear relationship.&nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:74.3%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1695746457/new-website/image10_1f9bf54ae3.png"></figure>Every year, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) releases its projected harvest acres for US cotton starting in August. As early as March, however, the Gro Drought Index can provide an early assessment of the potential for abandoned acres in a growing region, down to the county level.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/using-the-gro-drought-index-as-a-high-signal-trading-indicator">Download the full report</a> to learn more about how Gro’s offering can serve as a high-signal indicator to be used as the basis for a new trading system or as an enhancement to an existing one.&nbsp;<a href="mailto: sales@gro-intelligence.com">Contact the Gro team</a> to learn more about how your team can leverage Gro’s data and analytics.&nbsp;

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Case Study: Gro Drought Index Presents Signals for Profitable Trades

Gro Intelligence and DTN are partnering for their sixth annual Digital Yield Tour – a state-by-state analysis of corn and soybean production in key US growing regions. From Monday, August 7, to Friday, August 11, DTN will provide detailed, on-the-ground reporting and Gro will leverage our powerful machine-learning predictive modeling to show how US corn and soy yields are faring this year and what we can expect from the 2023 season.See daily tour updates on <a href="https://spotlights.dtnpf.com/dyt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">DTN’s website here</a>, and <a href="https://www.dtn.com/2023-ag-summit-series/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">register for a webinar</a> on the tour next Tuesday, August 15, at 8:30 AM CDT (Session 3: Digital Yield Tour 2023) to hear Gro Intelligence’s research analysts discuss the US corn and soybean season thus far.Gro’s US Yield Forecast Models Are a Powerful Predictor of Global MarketsBecause the US is the largest producer and consumer of corn and the second-largest producer and exporter of soybeans, fluctuations in yield for these crops&nbsp; have global price ramifications. Following estimates of US production throughout the season is critical for decision-makers across the agricultural supply chain.&nbsp;Gro’s US Corn &amp; Soybean Models provide highly accurate, daily estimates of end-of-season yields to help users get ahead of major market movements. Past years’ performance show that the models’ forecasts are within 98% of the USDA’s final January reporting up to four months in advance. (Check out more in<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models"> our 2022 Performance Report</a>.)Our US models estimate in-season yields at the county, state, and national levels. These models use weather, vegetation health, soil data, and other inputs to monitor environmental and crop conditions during the growing season and continuously forecast final yield.Gro’s customers use these models to:<ul><li>Predict end-of-season yields months sooner than government reports.</li><li>Monitor crop production – the most significant part of the balance sheet – by tracking in-season yield (its most variable component).</li><li>Understand the impact of climate conditions on crop availability and price.</li></ul>What Are We Seeing So Far This Season?According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-yield-model">Gro’s machine-learning model’s&nbsp;</a>latest predictions, higher forecasted yields and an increase in planted acreage could drive US corn production to a double-digit gain from last year.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;That’s a sharp reversal from the crop’s outlook early in the season, when June’s poor rainfall — the lowest for the Corn Belt in more than a decade — presaged a weak harvest. Precipitation rebounded in July, however, and total rainfall for that month was above the 10-year average.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/B2da7KVRn">Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> also currently indicates yields will be above last year. August and September weather has the greatest bearing on US soybean yields. Extended weather forecasts as the calendar flips to August are favorable for soybean pod set and pod fill.&nbsp;However, good-to-excellent crop ratings are still well below average for US corn and soybeans.&nbsp; Daily updates from Gro’s Yield Forecast Models offer insights into these dynamic conditions as the season continues.Read more about the Gro Yield Forecast Models&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-yield-model">here</a> or schedule a demonstration to learn how our Yield Models can be tailored to your organization’s needs&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo">here</a>.

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Gro x DTN Digital Yield Tour: Leveraging Gro’s Machine-Learning Forecast Models

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