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Brazil could dethrone the US as the world’s No. 1 corn exporter in 2023. Behind that projection is forecasted record corn production in Brazil, based on Gro’s model. In addition, China is increasingly looking to the South American country to satisfy its growing appetite for corn imports.&nbsp;This turnabout in corn export dominance, in addition to shifting global trade flows, could pressure US corn prices after the US harvest wraps up in late October, a time when corn prices typically are already around their lowest levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;Brazil exported more corn than the US only once before, during the US drought year of 2012/13. But this time around is different because Brazil’s rise is due to a hefty corn acreage expansion and the opening of its market to China, which Gro wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/china-to-buy-brazil-corn-as-ukraine-exports-remain-blocked" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s corn exports have already <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW77bWdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">jumped sevenfold </a>in the past 15 years, to nearly 50 million tonnes last year. With the addition of increased demand from China, Brazil’s exports look set to expand further.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGQQBlRZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China’s corn imports</a> have soared more than twentyfold since 2010, driven largely by its skyrocketing livestock feed needs. In February, China’s corn imports rose 38% from the previous month and were up 60% from a year earlier, mainly from the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBDnxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s corn production also has grown, fueled by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Pd2EeeJ9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increased acreage</a> planted to corn — up 72% in the past 20 years. While crop yields also have risen, there is much room for improvement — Brazil’s corn yields are still only about half those in the US, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Pd218g69A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s newly planted second corn crop, or safrinha, which represents more than 70% of total corn production, is harvested from June through August. While it is early in the season, <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1029,Brazil$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> shows favorable growing conditions.&nbsp;The recent departure of the La Niña global climate pattern could help ensure normal weather for Brazil’s corn crop, whose outlook depends on when the rainy season ends — typically this occurs in early May, as <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR8054gRe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> shows. Heavy rains earlier this year delayed some corn planting and could hurt yields in some areas.&nbsp;Gro’s Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model went live in mid-January and is currently updating in-season forecasts on a daily basis down to the district level. Gro users can access the machine-learning model, as well as our Brazil corn supply and demand balance sheet, using the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6bOy9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Brazil Corn Monitor</a>.&nbsp;

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Brazil May Overtake US as World's Top Corn Exporter This Year

India’s wheat output could decline for a second year in a row, keeping domestic prices elevated and requiring an extension of the country’s current export ban.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A sudden rise in temperatures hit India’s wheat crop earlier this month, followed by heavy, unseasonable rains coupled with hail. This could negatively impact wheat quality at a time when the country, the No. 3 producer worldwide, grapples with wheat shortages and high food inflation. India’s wheat stocks-to-use ratio, a measure of available supplies, is currently at its lowest level in six years, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qbQWDDdX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Uttar Pradesh, the largest wheat producing state, has suffered from above normal temperatures starting in mid-February, as seen in this display from <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/11205,Uttar%20Pradesh$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India:11205,Uttar%20Pradesh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Navigator for Agriculture</a> weighted for the state’s wheat growing areas.&nbsp;In addition, heavy rains have inundated <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVayjN9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttar Pradesh</a>, along with <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRLeYnw9p" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhya Pradesh</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/EqZvNMoq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajasthan</a>, other big wheat growing regions. The extent of losses might take weeks to quantify. India’s wheat harvest is just getting underway and will continue through May.&nbsp;India’s rapeseed crop also could suffer damage from the unseasonable weather. India is the world’s largest importer of edible oils, and a decrease in its rapeseed production could force it to increase imports of other products including palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil.&nbsp;The potential crop damage could exacerbate India’s domestic food inflation, which has been rising since 2021, as shown by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPPE73d5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s India Food Price Inflation Index</a>. A jump in exports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 further pushed up <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJDPZodV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local wheat prices</a>, prompting India to <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-wheat-export-ban-risks-inflaming-food-insecurity-worldwide" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ban exports</a> last May. That move, however, failed to stop domestic wheat prices rising, particularly after last year’s crop was damaged by a late season spike in temperatures.&nbsp;The current wheat export ban is scheduled to be reviewed in early April, when government officials from food, farm and trade ministries are expected to decide whether an extension is warranted.Nearby countries, including Bangladesh, the UAE, and Sri Lanka, normally <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYoKX9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rely on India</a> for wheat imports. An extension of the wheat export ban could leave these and other countries scrambling for alternative supplies, although India said it will continue to consider individual countries’ requests to waive the export ban.Gro users can view additional data on <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3raZn9o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s India Wheat Yield Model &amp; Balance Sheet</a>, which includes charts on yield, trade metrics, and Gro’s India wheat supply &amp; demand balance sheet.

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Damaged India Wheat Crop Could Drive Food Prices Higher

Gro’s early season outlook for US fertilizer application rates points to a 5% year-over-year increase in nitrogen application on corn areas, due to improved affordability and better soil moisture conditions. And, if the current favorable conditions persist through May, application rates could further rebound and mark a 7% rise.Even though fertilizer prices remain historically high and this season’s application rates will likely remain below the recent five-year average, the expected increase in application rates should provide a boost to US corn production. Last season US farmers sowed the smallest corn crop since 2015, partly because of high input costs.&nbsp;View <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1Zx3xRW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> of US Nitrogen Fertilizer Fundamentals showing fertilizer prices, application rates, and the corn supply &amp; demand balance sheet.&nbsp;Corn farmers must replace nitrogen levels in soils each season, but they can skip or curtail applications of phosphate and potassium, depending on economic conditions and affordability, without significantly sacrificing yield. Because of affordability concerns, many US farmers limited in-season applications and relied on existing soil reserves of phosphorus and potassium last year.&nbsp;As US farmers deferred fertilizer purchases, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7lZ7do" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">retail</a> and wholesale spot physical fertilizer prices began to decline in late 2022, setting in motion improvements in fertilizer affordability throughout this quarter, as we wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/improved-us-fertilizer-affordability-to-boost-nutrient-usage-in-2023-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Since this time last year, US retail urea prices have fallen 29%, and affordability — measured as the ratio of cash corn to the value of nitrogen in urea prices — has improved by 19%. Currently, fertilizer affordability in the US is at its best level since September 2021 because fertilizer and crop values diverged substantially since the floor reached last summer, when the 2022/23 fertilizer fiscal year began.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Y58U3wO1GBKFZOU_Jf1CmmqzoofSoM8PXob_ihmU1NXaR8FPlWYfNG2r8Iwe0t7Rw02lWfwBAwFUp8fpnddvSG_gMuE0zGLkIeiI1QIPwV4Zm4KPQHh5yCTHnhuFNbkxANKLrVXFLSuiCJfwJ2vSnic"><figcaption>US retail fertilizer affordability — measured by the relationship between fertilizer and crop prices — has rebounded from last summer’s lows, returning to the highest level since September 2021. As improved affordability is a key driver of consumption, farmers are expected to apply more fertilizer this season compared to last year.</figcaption></figure>A sharp <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJDYlLdV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expansion in the number of US acres planted to corn</a> also points to a rebound in fertilizer consumption across macronutrients this spring, but other dynamics are in play.&nbsp;For example, retailers might be hesitant to write-down higher priced inventory purchased earlier in the 2022/23 fertilizer fiscal year, as wholesale prices sink prior to spring plantings. Slower fertilizer price depreciation at retail locations compared to wholesale values could mitigate a rebound in application rates, in which affordability is a leading driver.&nbsp;It is still very early, but risks of planting delays also exist in the US’ central to eastern Plains. There, forecasts into mid-April suggest normal-to-wetter than normal conditions. Seasonal models also forecast normal to above-normal precipitation from March through May across US corn and soybean growing areas. Additionally, the US Climate Prediction Center forecasts a near 50% chance of a transition to El Niño conditions between June through August. This too could usher in a normal-to-wetter than normal weather pattern for much of the US’ corn and soybean growing regions, as we wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-s-departure-seen-having-major-impacts-on-global-food-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Reduced fertilizer usage in 2022 — due to low affordability and supply disruptions — <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/improved-us-fertilizer-affordability-to-boost-nutrient-usage-in-2023-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">impacted food production</a> around the world. In the US, an estimated 50.4 trillion calories in staple crop production was lost due to decreased applications of nitrogen fertilizer, according to <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor</a>, which calculates the impact on crop output worldwide based on projected cutbacks in nitrogen fertilizer consumption.&nbsp;Gro’s Fertilizer Impact Monitor was built with support of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and in partnership with the International Fertilizer Association and CRU Group.&nbsp;

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US Farmers to Apply More Nitrogen Fertilizer, Raising Corn Production Hopes

Gro Intelligence has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro's data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through artificial intelligence, generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;In this report, we focus on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Models for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton.&nbsp;You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September. Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September for the last four years.</li><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s suite of machine-learning models provide an unprecedented combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates to enable our customers to move ahead of the market.</li></ul>Download the 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models?utm_campaign=End%20of%20the%20Year%20Report%20-%20January%202023&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--DAawbx4JnPmIhs6GrNfist1fGwSINeh_jnpFQ9_1aaJrTOxCIMEY1Xq-DyHJPXbhZ9TUpn5frwnku07Tb0UXCk7b3NiU9gn6sw5XtheL7Ena6_aw&amp;utm_content=2&amp;utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.

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2022 Performance Report: Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models

In this report, we will talk about how to use growing and climate conditions in a systematic way to better anticipate impact on final yield throughout the growing season—from planting to harvest.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/incorporating-climate-into-agricultural-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here.</a>

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Incorporating Climate Into Agricultural Forecasting

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Early forecasts generated by Gro’s US Corn and US Soybean Planting Intentions Models show corn acres will substantially outnumber US acres planted to soybeans this year. Amid a general acreage expansion for both crops, the models currently show the US’ soybean-to-corn ratio at a 10-year low for this time of year.&nbsp;From the beginning of February, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton generate daily national-level projections on planted acres, along with state and regional forecasts. The Models provide users with an early insight into the upcoming US crop supplies and farmers’ input needs. Our acreage models’ final acreage forecasts are available in early March, about three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report’s release.&nbsp;Unlike the USDA’s report, which relies on farmer surveys to arrive at estimates of what farmers are expected to plant for the upcoming season, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models consider inputs ranging from the total viable farmland available to plant corn, soybeans, wheat, or cotton to the factors that change the opportunity cost between them.&nbsp;As the US is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers globally, changes in US planting intentions impact crop supply and prices worldwide. Market participants can also use the models’ state-level planting intention forecasts to predict regional demand for seeds, fertilizer, crop protection supplies, and machinery.&nbsp;Typically, high fertilizer prices favor soybean plantings over corn because soybeans require much less fertilizer than corn. Currently, fertilizer prices are elevated relative to the 10-year historical average, but this does not appear to be deterring farmers from increasing corn acreage because fertilizer prices are down by more than 40% compared with this time last year.&nbsp;In early 2022, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn and soybeans did not account for the surge in fertilizer prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. After we substantially improved these Models to incorporate fertilizer prices, our 2022 estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions came within 98% of the USDA’s 2022 report, as our latest <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/hubfs/2022%20Gro%20End%20of%20Year%20Performance.pdf">Performance Report on Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models</a> shows.In 2022, Gro’s US Wheat and US Cotton Planting Intentions Models’ acreage estimates were also within 98% of the USDA’s Prospective Planting report.&nbsp;<a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> to learn more about Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models, available with a Premium subscription. &nbsp;

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Gro’s 2023 US Planting Intentions Forecasts Are Coming In, Heavily Favoring Corn

In a time of unprecedented supply and demand shocks, early and accurate yield forecasts and planted acreage estimates are indispensable.&nbsp;Gro’s highly accurate Global Yield Forecast and Acreage Models offer a holistic view of global food supply up to 10 months in advance of final government reporting. These models are a key indicator for supply, prices, and farmer profitability and can be used to make decisions around product pricing, sourcing, trading, or policymaking.Gro’s suite of machine-learning models currently cover 80% of global production for corn, soy, and wheat. They provide an unmatched combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates.&nbsp;Gro’s 2022 Models Accurately Predicted Yields and Planted Acreage Up To 10 Months Before Final Government ReportingIn our latest performance report, we look back on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Model for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton, in 2022.&nbsp;This is the only report currently available in the market that compares model performance against ground truth data in a comprehensive, transparent way. Our analysis shows that Gro’s models accurately predicted yields and planted acreage, averaging within 95%-98% of final government reporting up to 10 months in advance.&nbsp;Key takeaways of our 2022 report include:<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September (i.e., four months in advance). Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September (i.e., four months in advance) for the last four years.</li><li>This remained true during the 2022 US growing season. By September, Gro’s forecasts for corn and soy were already within 98% of the USDA’s final January reporting. Gro’s models thus provided an earlier view of final numbers, allowing customers to move ahead of the market.&nbsp;</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:84.13%;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/f1CcWiAXnVscC279rcf0_HGjcDJg_5hyCPJriq9EtDibGmgt8I6dtvgi2_sGHFt29seHLLZLMDz414zJzjtkVQpohR4fpVw78InVqQJsV6DVFhOBr1lj3OxbSMQI6vjlr9otlzt7L3ATv8PzFid-1CKbC91zENNKO8eMhZal7VvnktJ0BuBqYHVbCFp6uQ"><figcaption>During the 2022 growing season, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model was showing yields consistently below USDA estimates starting in June, providing early insight into lower-than-expected production and potentially lower exports. The model dropped mid-season due to extreme high temperatures, recovering a bit in August as conditions improved. The forecasts stabilized in September and were already within 98% of USDA final January reporting.</figcaption></figure>&nbsp;<ul><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s US Planting Intentions Model for corn and soybeans did not initially account for the surge in fertilizer prices in early 2022. As a result, our model’s estimates, published early February, were higher than the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, published March 31, 2022. However, after we enhanced our Planting Intentions Model by incorporating fertilizer prices, our estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions showed significant improvement and were within 98% of the USDA’s March 31, 2022 report.</li></ul>The Unique Power of the Gro PlatformGro Intelligence is an AI-driven data and analytics company helping businesses, financial institutions, and governments make better decisions on food security and climate risk.Gro has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro’s data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through AI , generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;Gro’s Global Yield Forecast Models leverage high-resolution satellite data that capture every field in every district or province, not just random fields as with traditional crop survey methods, making the data more precise. Our Yield Forecast and Acreage Models are significantly more accurate, and available earlier, because of the blending of multiple unique skill sets across research and data science, comprehensive global data sources and variables, geospatial expertise, and machine and human learning.<a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> for a demo or to learn more about our predictive models.Download the full 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models">here</a>.

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Get Accurate Forecasts 10 Months Ahead of Final Government Reporting

At a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel session on January 18th, Gro Intelligence’s CEO Sara Menker joined United Nations World Food Program executive director David Beasley, Bayer AG’s CEO Werner Baumann, Hanneke Faber, president of Unilever’s nutrition group, and CNBC anchor Steve Sedgwick to discuss the challenges facing global food systems, global food security, and what a credible transition to a resilient agrifood system will require.&nbsp;For the panelists taking part in the WEF’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2023/sessions/innovating-for-food-security">Revolutionizing Food Security</a> discussion, private sector involvement, enabling policies that take farmer profitability into account, and a long-term game plan centered on sustainability, decarbonization, and maintaining yields are the critical components of the resilient global food system that the world needs to build.&nbsp;While that is a tall order, Gro’s CEO Sara Menker said that there is a lot that agrifood systems can learn from the global energy market transition.&nbsp;“It has taken a lot of private capital to move to the conversations that we are having today about clean energy, and the catalyst for that has been data,” Menker said.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to get people to pay attention to food system risk, the agricultural commodity market needs to be able to articulate risks more clearly, she said. Lenders and investors need timely, granular data to measure, price, and transfer risks more effectively, she added.&nbsp;Because relatively few agricultural commodities trade on exchanges, market participants currently have very few options for managing their risks, especially medium to long-term exposures. “If you take the most liquid agricultural product in the world today, it's corn in the US. And [today] if you can sell that two years forward, it's still a miracle,” Menker said.&nbsp;Yet to make actionable and credible long-term plans that align with sustainability and decarbonization objectives and feeding the world’s 8 billion people, market participants across the spectrum need real-time data and reliable projections.&nbsp;“[They need to] know how much of that supply exists. What the supply risks are, and what the demand is going to be” Menker said. “[Without that information] how do you actually systematically price that risk, not just for tomorrow, or for the next year, but for the next 10 to 20 years?” she asked.&nbsp;Menker believes that robust data and analytics can be a cornerstone of a global agrifood system transition that decarbonizes as it improves food security. Data and analytics that are methodically rooted in science can become the infrastructure that facilitates risk management, risk sharing, and risk transfer, and in this way, data and analytics can enable different stakeholders - banks, companies, and governments - to play their role, she explained. Bringing these stakeholders and forces together can spur a transition, while helping to address global food insecurity, she said.&nbsp;Between 2019 and 2022, the number of people facing acute hunger soared 155% to 345 million worldwide. Currently, 49 million people in 49 different countries are on the edge of famine.&nbsp;Even though food price inflation is cooling globally, food security must remain top of mind for world leaders, as the fallout from the last three years’ high inflation lingers, Menker said as the panel discussion concluded.&nbsp;&nbsp;To learn more about the tools that Gro has developed to help users track the growing conditions of crops that are not traded on global exchanges or to schedule a demo of the Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, please reach out to our sales team at <a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a>.&nbsp;

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From Davos: Gro’s CEO Discusses Food Security and the Food System Transition 

Gro Intelligence has attained Service Organizational Control (SOC) 2 Type II compliance, in accordance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountant (AICPA) standards for software as service (SaaS) providers.&nbsp;A SOC 2 Type II designation means that Gro’s systems and processes adhere to the highest levels of data security for all users.&nbsp;Just as we hold our software vendors to the highest security standards, the <a href="https://www.aicpa.org/topic/audit-assurance/audit-and-assurance-greater-than-soc-2#:~:text=A%20SOC%202%20examination%20is,integrity%2C%20confidentiality%2C%20or%20privacy">SOC 2 Type II certification</a> demonstrates our steadfast commitment to protecting the confidentiality, integrity, availability, and privacy of our customer's data. Interest in achieving the AICPA’s SOC 2 Type II certification has been skyrocketing in recent years as incidences of third-party data breaches have soared.&nbsp;About Gro: Gro Intelligence is a data and analytics company that has built one of the world’s most comprehensive agriculture-related data platforms. We use our technology to harvest, translate, and transform approximately 40 million unique data sets and nearly 500 trillion data points across multiple types of data and crop types on a global basis. Gro has also built a suite of machine-learning-based predictive models allowing users to have access to an unprecedented number of data sets and forecasts for production, consumption, trade, and climate globally.&nbsp;For more information on Gro’s SOC 2 Type II designation, please reach out to us at&nbsp; intel<a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">@gro-intelligence.com</a>.&nbsp;

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Gro Reinforces Data Security With SOC 2 Type II Certification

Fertilizer shortages brought on by high prices and tight supplies are continuing to threaten global agricultural production.&nbsp;Gro Intelligence's Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor, launched earlier this year, is the first tool to help quantify the potential impact on global production of major crops from reduced applications of nitrogen fertilizer under different scenarios in a fully transparent way.&nbsp;Now Gro has incorporated the latest scenarios from November 2022 from our partners — the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), an association which represents providers of plant nutrition solutions, and CRU Group (CRU), a leading independent authority on fertilizer.The Monitor, which Gro built with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, is free for anyone to use and can be found <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Overall, the updates from IFA and CRU project that the global fertilizer crisis resulted in even lower rates of nitrogen fertilization applications worldwide in 2022 than was previously estimated.&nbsp;Latest Updates: What Does the Data Tell Us?The monitor originally launched in July 2022 with three scenarios from IFA — “optimistic,” “pessimistic,” and “middle ground.” But IFA in November consolidated its estimates into a single scenario, which projects larger cuts in 2022 global nitrogen fertilizer use than even its “pessimistic” scenario from July. CRU Group’s updated estimates also point to larger declines in nitrogen use than the group previously projected.Gro modeled the impact on crop yield based on the various fertilizer application scenarios to arrive at production estimates for a given country and crop. The production for four major crops — wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans — is then converted into calories and combined to highlight the impact on food supplies from reduced fertilizer usage. Gro’s production estimates are based solely on the usage scenarios for nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and don’t take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. See more on our methodology <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/methodology">here</a>.Overall, the updates on fertilizer usage from both IFA and CRU show increasingly large effects of a crisis still unfolding. Key takeaways include:&nbsp;<ul><li>Under the new IFA scenario, Gro calculates a total worldwide reduction of 216 trillion calories, while the CRU scenario points to a 143 trillion calorie reduction. The IFA scenario shows reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use will trim calorie production by at least 5% in&nbsp; 42 countries (mainly in Central and Southern America, Southeast Asia, and Africa) while CRU’s fertilizer use figures point to a greater-than-5% cut in calorie production in 10 countries (mainly in Africa).</li><li>The average of the IFA and CRU scenarios is now worse than the “pessimistic” scenario from IFA in July 2022.</li><li>The largest calorie losses under both organizations’ scenarios are in Ukraine.</li><li>CRU’s scenario points to a calorie increase in China, while IFA has cut calories in China. IFA also indicates much worse impact in Vietnam, Argentina, and India than does CRU.</li><li>Both the CRU and IFA estimates indicate that production of all four of the major crops (corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans) will be dragged down by cuts in nitrogen fertilizer use in 2022. In USDA PS&amp;D data back to 1965, there have been no years in which production of all four crops dropped in the same year, and only eight years in which three of the crops’ production fell. In addition, only three years going back to 1965 saw such significant declines in corn, rice, and wheat at the same time.</li><li>In both the CRU and IFA scenarios, wheat production will be impacted the most (down ~2.5% worldwide), followed by corn (~2.3% reduction). Rice production will be down ~1.5% and soybeans down ~0.2%. The projected production declines are based solely on anticipated reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use and don’t take into account other factors such as weather.</li></ul>The global distribution of the projected outcomes, compared with the IFA and CRU estimates from July 2022, varies by country and crop. For example:<ul><li>For the US — the global leader in corn production — Gro estimates nitrogen fertilizer use cuts based on CRU’s updated scenario will further reduce corn production compared with July estimates by an additional 3.5 percentage points. Using IFA’s updated scenario, Gro’s new corn production estimates have decreased only by 0.34 percentage points compared to their previous “middle ground” scenario.&nbsp;</li><li>In much of Europe, IFA’s updated figures point to a doubling of the decrease in calorie production when compared to the association’s previous “middle ground” estimates. In France, fertilizer use cuts now point to a 4.6% decline in calorie production compared to the 2.1% cut indicated earlier this year.</li><li>For Brazil, IFA's newest scenario points to a calorie reduction from key principal crops compared to July “middle ground” estimates, which projected a calorie gain. CRU's updated estimates now point to an even steeper caloric reduction for Brazil compared to their estimates in July.</li></ul>These fertilizer application scenarios from IFA and CRU are based on usage exclusively of nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and do not take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. However, Gro’s in-season Yield Forecast Models account for these variables. Go to the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/about-outputs">About Outputs</a> page within the Monitor to see the difference.&nbsp;We welcome feedback and additional data to continue to improve the Fertilizer Impact Monitor and build on the work that we have done. Visit the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Please reach out to <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> with any questions or to learn more about our platform.

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Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor: Updated Scenarios Project Larger Cuts in 2022 Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Use

Heading into 2023, the global food system is facing availability and affordability crises that have been spurred by supply chain challenges, climate disruptions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a related nitrogen fertilizer squeeze. Just the nitrogen fertilizer problem alone is going to lead to a reduction of 216 trillion calories around the world, according to a Gro Intelligence analysis.“The lack of fertilizer is the most terrifying challenge ahead of us for the next two years,” Sara Menker, CEO of Gro Intelligence said when she sat down with Guy Raz, the host of NPR’s “How I Built This” to discuss why she set up the agricultural and climate change data and analytics company, Gro Intelligence.&nbsp;Listen to a full recording of their conversation, which aired on December 8th, on <a href="https://one.npr.org/?sharedMediaId=1141497910:1141497912" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NPR One</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hibt-lab-gro-intelligence-sara-menker/id1150510297?i=1000588226962" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a href="https://wondery.com/shows/how-i-built-this/episode/10386-hibt-lab-gro-intelligence-sara-menker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wondery</a> or <a href="https://www.audible.com/pd/HIBT-Lab-Gro-Intelligence-Sara-Menker-Podcast/B0BPLRNJ8G?ref=a_pd_How-I-_c3_lAsin_0_1&amp;pf_rd_p=625c212d-b95a-47db-8d56-d35a359de6e9&amp;pf_rd_r=ER0G9PR7PSV9VK6NBW15" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Audible</a>.&nbsp;The Seed of an Idea: Gro’s CEO on “How I Built This” with Guy Raz&nbsp;Growing up in Ethiopia in the 1980s and 1990s taught Gro Intelligence’s CEO Sara Menker not to take anything for granted. “When you are growing up and it’s not a world of abundance - when it’s a world of limited resources… It grounds you. It reminds you of what basic necessities are and what basic needs are in this life,” Menker said, explaining how her personal history took her to Wall Street and fostered her interest in building the subscription-based agricultural and climate change data and analytics company, Gro Intelligence.&nbsp;“I was attracted to [commodities trading] because it was attached to things that are physical and necessary to life,” she said.&nbsp;Amid the economic turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis, while some on Wall Street were piling into gold, Menker began looking into investing in agricultural land. “It baffled me that every time I asked questions, I got more questions. Or if I needed data, I got data that was two years old,” she said. “I remember thinking, we are just not going to solve these big food security challenges… We were trying to fix a system that we didn’t even understand,” she said.&nbsp;By 2012, Menker left Wall Street, and after two years of research, she and Sewit Ahderom launched Gro Intelligence, a data and analytics firm that takes trillions of data points from a variety of sources and builds agricultural commodity forecasts that food suppliers, financial firms, and governments can use to navigate climate risk, understand supply models, predict demand for crops, and monitor growing conditions for crops around the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cultivating Gro&nbsp;According to Menker, the first challenge was assessing what data was available and developing a technology that can ingest that data - regardless of language or format - and standardize it. From there, the next challenge was how to use that data to develop models that can tell people something that they didn’t know. “We started with modeling in markets that everyone understood like corn in the US,” Menker explained, noting that Gro now has 28 model templates that can be scaled up through machine learning and AI in a consistent and defined way.&nbsp;“[Today, these models can forecast] everything from the demand of pork in China to the supply of sugar in Brazil… You name it,” she added. Depending on the user, the same Gro model is often used differently. While financial firms might use Gro models to trade, seed companies might use Gro’s models to understand how profitable farmers are, she explained. Governments, meanwhile, might use the models to assess the credit risk of farmers and others in the agricultural sector. In the US, Gro’s yield models are predictive and 98-99% accurate up to four to six months ahead of USDA government data. In places like India, Russia, China, and Africa, Gro’s yield models’ lead time is one to two years in advance of official government releases.It’s About Resilience&nbsp;Heading into 2023, the global food system is facing availability and affordability crises that have been spurred by supply chain challenges, climate disruptions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a related nitrogen fertilizer squeeze.&nbsp;“How do you plan for this so it’s not an absolute catastrophe when it happens,” Menker said, referring to the fertilizer crunch. The same is true for the climate crisis, however.To help farmers, businesses, and governments around the world deal with the climate challenges, Gro has built a suite of climate indices covering specific risks - from drought to floods to fires and heat stress - that help users understand how weather translates into climate impacts in real time and in the future.&nbsp;With this information, users can mitigate risks, Menker noted. Gro’s forward-looking climate models can help users understand the trajectory of the various climate perils that growing regions or corporate assets are up against around the world at the district (county) level.&nbsp;For major food or agricultural companies some of the biggest risks that they face are around procuring food and figuring out where to invest in a shifting climate.&nbsp;&nbsp;“Are the areas that grow food today going to be the most suitable for growing [the same food] tomorrow? And where will [growing areas] be in five, 10, 15, or 20 years from now? You would be surprised at how much [growing] areas are going to have to shift based on different climate [change] scenarios,” Menker said.&nbsp;Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak with a member of our team or to get a demonstration of our platform.&nbsp;

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Gro’s CEO on “How I Built This” with Guy Raz 

Gro Intellgence’s CEO Sara Menker joined Cargill’s CEO David MacLennan, Anastasia Volkova, CEO of Regrow Ag, and Bloomberg’s Shery Ahn in Singapore last month for a panel discussion on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-11-16/action-planning-for-the-global-food-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Action-Planning for the Global Food Crisis</a>. As the world relies on an interconnected food system in order to have availability, accessibility, and price stability, optimizing the global food system for resilient production is key to addressing food insecurity today and averting food crises tomorrow, the panelists said.&nbsp;Globalization is changing in front of our eyes, and that includes changes to the global food system, Menker said at the event.&nbsp;“[Yet, the global] food system is one of the hardest things to deglobalize because, outside of the US, there are not that many countries that can produce 100% of their supply chain,” she added.&nbsp;This fact, and the ongoing climate crisis, suggest that the world needs a new action plan to address today’s global food crisis.&nbsp;“We are not on the verge of a food crisis. We are already in one,” Menker said, noting that structural demand changes that began two to three years ago set the stage for today’s global food crisis. Unprecedented supplyside disruptions, including the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, worsened an already deteriorating global food security outlook, she added.&nbsp;Action plans aimed at addressing current and future global food crises will need to acknowledge the food system’s reliance on trade as well as the agriculture industry’s need to reduce its carbon intensity, particularly around energy and fertilizer.&nbsp;As climate change is already impacting crops and as the industry needs to reduce its carbon emissions, regenerative agriculture - which is often defined as a way of producing food that may have lower environmental and/or social impacts - is often viewed as a way forward. Data will be critical for scaling regenerative agriculture, however.&nbsp;“[This means] defining the metrics that matter and standardizing those metrics at scale so that we are comparing apples to apples,” Menker said. Whereas metrics offer the ability to define issues and establish targets, data is critical for measuring the performance towards those targets, towards helping farmers and the global food system become more productive and more sustainable. “Data is going to be a critical component,” she added.&nbsp;

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