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China’s soaring import volumes of grains and soybeans continued into 2023, with Brazil for the first time contributing a double-digit share of corn shipments. With China seeking to diversify food purchases away from the US, the Asian country is expected to increasingly rely on Brazil to meet its growing import demand.&nbsp;China’s grain imports have been rising strongly for years, and corn imports are up more than twentyfold since 2010. In February of this year, imports of both corn and wheat reached <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BlEPOqM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">record volumes</a>. Corn shipments for the month were up nearly 60% from a year earlier, with the US accounting for nearly 40% of the total and Ukraine and Brazil each representing about a one-quarter share.&nbsp;China opened its corn purchases to include Brazil <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/china-approves-more-brazil-corn-imports-stoking-competition-with-the-us" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">last spring</a>, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/china-to-buy-brazil-corn-as-ukraine-exports-remain-blocked" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, partly to replace grain shipments blocked by the Russia-Ukraine war. This year, Brazil looks set to take an <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-may-overtake-us-as-world-s-top-corn-exporter-this-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">even greater role</a> as higher corn acreage and favorable weather look set to deliver a record harvest, based on Gro’s machine learning-based <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6bOy9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">yield forecast model</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s corn exports typically peak after May, and they represent major competition to US sales. Roughly 25% of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW77JWdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">total US corn export volumes</a> currently go to China. US corn sales to China were valued at $5.1 billion for 2021. China has purchased roughly 2.75 million tonnes of US old crop corn since mid-March.&nbsp;&nbsp;China’s rising imports of grains and soybeans, much of which goes for animal feed, are largely driven by domestic pork demand. In January and February, Chinese pork consumption rose by more than 50% from a year earlier, as COVID pandemic restrictions were eased.&nbsp;While such a fast growth rate isn’t sustainable, Gro expects continued year-over-year increases in pork demand in 2023 and 2024, based on <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/JqY38De98" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s China Pork Demand Forecast Model</a>. Healthy <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/lV9NELeRb" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inventories of hogs</a> also will ensure strong demand for grain this year.&nbsp;Higher wheat imports so far this year have been supported after <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9N7ryydb" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">import margins turned positive</a> in January. But increases in corn import volumes came despite <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57N2LR0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">negative import margins</a>.&nbsp;China’s soybean imports also increased in the first two months, up 16% from a year earlier, although volumes were down in February from January. A majority of the soybean imports in February came from the US as Brazil faced setbacks due to heavy rains. But the large Brazilian soybean supplies expected to arrive over the next few months, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, may have China less interested in US soybeans until next year.&nbsp;

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China’s Grain Imports Reach Record With a Growing Reliance on Brazil

India’s wheat output could decline for a second year in a row, keeping domestic prices elevated and requiring an extension of the country’s current export ban.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A sudden rise in temperatures hit India’s wheat crop earlier this month, followed by heavy, unseasonable rains coupled with hail. This could negatively impact wheat quality at a time when the country, the No. 3 producer worldwide, grapples with wheat shortages and high food inflation. India’s wheat stocks-to-use ratio, a measure of available supplies, is currently at its lowest level in six years, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qbQWDDdX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Uttar Pradesh, the largest wheat producing state, has suffered from above normal temperatures starting in mid-February, as seen in this display from <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/11205,Uttar%20Pradesh$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India:11205,Uttar%20Pradesh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Navigator for Agriculture</a> weighted for the state’s wheat growing areas.&nbsp;In addition, heavy rains have inundated <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVayjN9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttar Pradesh</a>, along with <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRLeYnw9p" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhya Pradesh</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/EqZvNMoq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajasthan</a>, other big wheat growing regions. The extent of losses might take weeks to quantify. India’s wheat harvest is just getting underway and will continue through May.&nbsp;India’s rapeseed crop also could suffer damage from the unseasonable weather. India is the world’s largest importer of edible oils, and a decrease in its rapeseed production could force it to increase imports of other products including palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil.&nbsp;The potential crop damage could exacerbate India’s domestic food inflation, which has been rising since 2021, as shown by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPPE73d5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s India Food Price Inflation Index</a>. A jump in exports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 further pushed up <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJDPZodV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local wheat prices</a>, prompting India to <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-wheat-export-ban-risks-inflaming-food-insecurity-worldwide" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ban exports</a> last May. That move, however, failed to stop domestic wheat prices rising, particularly after last year’s crop was damaged by a late season spike in temperatures.&nbsp;The current wheat export ban is scheduled to be reviewed in early April, when government officials from food, farm and trade ministries are expected to decide whether an extension is warranted.Nearby countries, including Bangladesh, the UAE, and Sri Lanka, normally <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYoKX9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rely on India</a> for wheat imports. An extension of the wheat export ban could leave these and other countries scrambling for alternative supplies, although India said it will continue to consider individual countries’ requests to waive the export ban.Gro users can view additional data on <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3raZn9o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s India Wheat Yield Model &amp; Balance Sheet</a>, which includes charts on yield, trade metrics, and Gro’s India wheat supply &amp; demand balance sheet.

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Damaged India Wheat Crop Could Drive Food Prices Higher

Brazil could dethrone the US as the world’s No. 1 corn exporter in 2023. Behind that projection is forecasted record corn production in Brazil, based on Gro’s model. In addition, China is increasingly looking to the South American country to satisfy its growing appetite for corn imports.&nbsp;This turnabout in corn export dominance, in addition to shifting global trade flows, could pressure US corn prices after the US harvest wraps up in late October, a time when corn prices typically are already around their lowest levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;Brazil exported more corn than the US only once before, during the US drought year of 2012/13. But this time around is different because Brazil’s rise is due to a hefty corn acreage expansion and the opening of its market to China, which Gro wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/china-to-buy-brazil-corn-as-ukraine-exports-remain-blocked" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s corn exports have already <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW77bWdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">jumped sevenfold </a>in the past 15 years, to nearly 50 million tonnes last year. With the addition of increased demand from China, Brazil’s exports look set to expand further.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGQQBlRZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">China’s corn imports</a> have soared more than twentyfold since 2010, driven largely by its skyrocketing livestock feed needs. In February, China’s corn imports rose 38% from the previous month and were up 60% from a year earlier, mainly from the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBDnxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s corn production also has grown, fueled by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Pd2EeeJ9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increased acreage</a> planted to corn — up 72% in the past 20 years. While crop yields also have risen, there is much room for improvement — Brazil’s corn yields are still only about half those in the US, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Pd218g69A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Brazil’s newly planted second corn crop, or safrinha, which represents more than 70% of total corn production, is harvested from June through August. While it is early in the season, <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1029,Brazil$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> shows favorable growing conditions.&nbsp;The recent departure of the La Niña global climate pattern could help ensure normal weather for Brazil’s corn crop, whose outlook depends on when the rainy season ends — typically this occurs in early May, as <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR8054gRe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> shows. Heavy rains earlier this year delayed some corn planting and could hurt yields in some areas.&nbsp;Gro’s Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model went live in mid-January and is currently updating in-season forecasts on a daily basis down to the district level. Gro users can access the machine-learning model, as well as our Brazil corn supply and demand balance sheet, using the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6bOy9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Brazil Corn Monitor</a>.&nbsp;

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Brazil May Overtake US as World's Top Corn Exporter This Year

Gro’s early season outlook for US fertilizer application rates points to a 5% year-over-year increase in nitrogen application on corn areas, due to improved affordability and better soil moisture conditions. And, if the current favorable conditions persist through May, application rates could further rebound and mark a 7% rise.Even though fertilizer prices remain historically high and this season’s application rates will likely remain below the recent five-year average, the expected increase in application rates should provide a boost to US corn production. Last season US farmers sowed the smallest corn crop since 2015, partly because of high input costs.&nbsp;View <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1Zx3xRW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> of US Nitrogen Fertilizer Fundamentals showing fertilizer prices, application rates, and the corn supply &amp; demand balance sheet.&nbsp;Corn farmers must replace nitrogen levels in soils each season, but they can skip or curtail applications of phosphate and potassium, depending on economic conditions and affordability, without significantly sacrificing yield. Because of affordability concerns, many US farmers limited in-season applications and relied on existing soil reserves of phosphorus and potassium last year.&nbsp;As US farmers deferred fertilizer purchases, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7lZ7do" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">retail</a> and wholesale spot physical fertilizer prices began to decline in late 2022, setting in motion improvements in fertilizer affordability throughout this quarter, as we wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/improved-us-fertilizer-affordability-to-boost-nutrient-usage-in-2023-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Since this time last year, US retail urea prices have fallen 29%, and affordability — measured as the ratio of cash corn to the value of nitrogen in urea prices — has improved by 19%. Currently, fertilizer affordability in the US is at its best level since September 2021 because fertilizer and crop values diverged substantially since the floor reached last summer, when the 2022/23 fertilizer fiscal year began.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Y58U3wO1GBKFZOU_Jf1CmmqzoofSoM8PXob_ihmU1NXaR8FPlWYfNG2r8Iwe0t7Rw02lWfwBAwFUp8fpnddvSG_gMuE0zGLkIeiI1QIPwV4Zm4KPQHh5yCTHnhuFNbkxANKLrVXFLSuiCJfwJ2vSnic"><figcaption>US retail fertilizer affordability — measured by the relationship between fertilizer and crop prices — has rebounded from last summer’s lows, returning to the highest level since September 2021. As improved affordability is a key driver of consumption, farmers are expected to apply more fertilizer this season compared to last year.</figcaption></figure>A sharp <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJDYlLdV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expansion in the number of US acres planted to corn</a> also points to a rebound in fertilizer consumption across macronutrients this spring, but other dynamics are in play.&nbsp;For example, retailers might be hesitant to write-down higher priced inventory purchased earlier in the 2022/23 fertilizer fiscal year, as wholesale prices sink prior to spring plantings. Slower fertilizer price depreciation at retail locations compared to wholesale values could mitigate a rebound in application rates, in which affordability is a leading driver.&nbsp;It is still very early, but risks of planting delays also exist in the US’ central to eastern Plains. There, forecasts into mid-April suggest normal-to-wetter than normal conditions. Seasonal models also forecast normal to above-normal precipitation from March through May across US corn and soybean growing areas. Additionally, the US Climate Prediction Center forecasts a near 50% chance of a transition to El Niño conditions between June through August. This too could usher in a normal-to-wetter than normal weather pattern for much of the US’ corn and soybean growing regions, as we wrote about <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-s-departure-seen-having-major-impacts-on-global-food-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Reduced fertilizer usage in 2022 — due to low affordability and supply disruptions — <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/improved-us-fertilizer-affordability-to-boost-nutrient-usage-in-2023-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">impacted food production</a> around the world. In the US, an estimated 50.4 trillion calories in staple crop production was lost due to decreased applications of nitrogen fertilizer, according to <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor</a>, which calculates the impact on crop output worldwide based on projected cutbacks in nitrogen fertilizer consumption.&nbsp;Gro’s Fertilizer Impact Monitor was built with support of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and in partnership with the International Fertilizer Association and CRU Group.&nbsp;

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US Farmers to Apply More Nitrogen Fertilizer, Raising Corn Production Hopes

The atmospheric river storm descending on California will likely worsen existing produce supply gaps into this spring, pushing already elevated retail prices for produce aisle staples like <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBXPyq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lettuce, broccoli</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57XvER0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">strawberries</a> higher.&nbsp;California’s produce industry has been battered by erratic weather since early last fall, as we wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/extreme-weather-is-fueling-produce-prices-and-us-food-price-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/waterlogged-acres-and-planting-delays-california-faces-major-fruit-veg-losses" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, but this latest bout of extreme precipitation is particularly problematic because it is arriving just before winter growing seasons in Florida, Mexico, and Arizona wind down and as California’s produce growing season ramps up.&nbsp;By early April, California takes over as the US’ primary strawberry source, producing about 188 million pounds of strawberries in April before hitting a monthly production peak of around 267 million pounds in late May on average over the last five years. During the first week of March, the state shipped only 2.3 million pounds of strawberries, about 19% of its usual haul for that week based on the 10-year average.&nbsp;At a minimum, this storm could cause delays for California’s strawberry harvest in Oxnard, the state’s biggest strawberry producing area for this time of year, but it could also damage existing crops and flood fields in Santa Maria and Salinas, setting back new plantings.&nbsp;The procession of atmospheric rivers that pummeled the state in late December through mid-January swamped fields, leading to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Ddxowm692" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">record low shipped strawberry volumes</a> in January.&nbsp;By February, California’s shipped strawberry volumes rebounded to the 10-year average before dropping 65% last week after late February rains. In February, Florida’s strawberry crop was able to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBDxEqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">compensate for California’s production declines</a>, but Florida’s strawberry season wraps up this month. Mexico’s strawberry production, which is past its peak, drops off after April.&nbsp;&nbsp;Often during seasonal crop transitions, US produce markets face a higher risk of price increases and supply disruptions.&nbsp;Heading into this spring, lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower, and other leafy greens grown in Yuma, Arizona, are vulnerable to seasonal, transition-related supply gaps. In early April, as temperatures in Yuma rise, the area’s growing season for these crops draws to a close, and producers begin to move their crops and related machinery and equipment to Salinas, California, where temperatures tend to be favorable through the fall. A similar seasonal transition takes place in November, when producers move from Salinas to Yuma for warmer winter growing conditions.&nbsp;This winter, however, Yuma experienced <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYojl9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">consistently cool weather</a> that suppressed production volumes, particularly for lettuce. The Yuma season’s low lettuce production means that there is little supply to fall back on after this latest atmospheric river storm.&nbsp;The storm, which is forecast to dump two to three inches of rain in Monterey County, could complicate producers’ transition and Salinas Valley planting plans, further straining lettuce supplies at a time of year when demand for salad usually picks up. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAjg3QR4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lettuce shipping point prices</a> are not yet reflecting these looming supply constraints, in part because demand for lettuce is currently low.&nbsp;Typically, California’s Salinas Valley is responsible for about 80% of the US’ vegetable production from April to early July.&nbsp;

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Atmospheric River Storm to Aggravate US Produce Supply Woes

Months of severe drought conditions across Argentina’s soybean and corn growing areas forced the USDA to slash its production estimates for a third consecutive month and closely align with what Gro has been predicting since the start of the growing season in December.&nbsp;In its March WASDE report, the USDA cut its production estimates for Argentina soybeans by 20% from the agency’s February projections and its corn output figures by 15%. Since December, the USDA has slashed Argentina’s production outlook by 27% for corn and by 33% for soybeans.&nbsp;Gro’s Argentina Yield Forecast Models have for months signaled <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW787BdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQm0g9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean</a> production would be sharply lower than USDA estimates. Argentina is the world's largest soybean meal exporter and second-largest corn exporting country.Gro’s vegetative health index for Argentina’s soybean crop is the lowest for this century, while the Gro Drought Index is close to a two-decade high, as shown in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1010,Argentina$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Soybeans%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a> from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. Growing conditions for Argentina’s corn crop are equally challenging, as shown in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1010,Argentina$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a>.&nbsp;Argentina’s weak soybean production helped pull down USDA estimates for 2022/23 global soybean ending stocks by 2% from its February projection. Helping to offset Argentina’s weak output is an expected bumper soybean crop in Brazil, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. The USDA left unchanged its estimates for Brazil’s soybean and corn production.&nbsp;Gro users can monitor Brazil’s growing conditions and changes to its estimated balance sheet through Gro’s<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQvQA9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Brazil Corn Monitor</a> and<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/bR7EZE4dN" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Brazil Soybean Monitor</a>.For the US, the USDA lowered its estimates for soybean ending stocks to a seven-year low as exports were revised slightly higher. US soybean exports have outpaced historical trends since last fall, as shown in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1ZyZ1RW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>. By contrast, US corn exports have been sluggish for months, and the USDA reduced its export estimates by 4%.&nbsp;Gro’s<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7E7ldo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> US Soybean Monitor </a>and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYoY79A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US Corn Monitor</a> contain supply and demand balance sheets for the two commodities. They also display crop yield forecasts and growing conditions once the season gets underway.

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USDA Again Cuts Argentina Soybean, Corn Outlook in Line With Gro Predictions

US acres earmarked to soybeans will shrink to a four-year low this spring as growers plant more acres to corn and wheat, according to Gro’s Planting Intentions Models’ estimates.&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-planting-intentions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models</a> for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, which generate acreage forecasts starting in February, provide users insight into expected planting mixes three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is released on March 31.Another big drop in soybean acreage occurred in 2019, following extensive flooding in the Midwest, which contributed to a 15% drop in US soybean production from the five-year average at that time.Heading into this year’s US planting season, growers are likely to forgo planting soybeans because commodity futures prices are signaling that planting corn and wheat will be more profitable.&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/XaLTMcLvMlVUUfAbGtW6H9qi_4RExOkl3KTVzKItDukwRknDvT1-CvkEm51s9Qb1hW1VoHEPjE5xBB9iUr4C4i9e7znYquB4rz2DdBo0FuUGxWt896NXdOVP9zRGU18Bec7orCt_H7FV66AzuIjNzno"><figcaption>The chart above shows how the price ratio between soybeans, priced on the November 2023 contract, and corn, on the December 2023 contract, has ebbed and flowed well below the 20-year average for February. The year’s trend makes corn a more appealing crop to plant compared to soybeans.</figcaption></figure>At its current level, our Planting Intentions Model for Soybeans’ projected contraction in planted acres would further squeeze the US’ soybeans stocks-to-use level, a measure of available supplies, which is already at its tightest level since 2015/16, as shown by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGQKzlRZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Soybean Monitor</a>.&nbsp;However, Brazil’s expected record soybean crop, which is currently being harvested, could reduce the need for US soybean exports in the upcoming marketing year, helping to offset the strain on US supplies. Brazil’s bumper crop is also expected to offset losses from Argentina’s drought-stricken soybean area, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Currently, Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model is forecasting a double-digit year-over-year increase in Brazilian <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRLeMvw9p" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean production</a>.Gro’s Planting Intentions Models also forecast a big jump in corn acreage, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/blog/gro-s-2023-us-planting-intentions-forecasts-are-coming-in-heavily-favoring-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Cotton planted area is <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-cotton-planted-acres-to-shrink-unseated-by-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forecast to shrink</a>. Meanwhile, Gro’s spring wheat planting model shows a nominal increase year-over-year, which, combined with an 11% leap in<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPP04Gd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> winter wheat area</a>, points to an overall jump in total wheat area.Wheat production, though, is expected to suffer due to prolonged drought conditions in key growing states, according to Gro’s <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Winter%20Wheat%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> weighted to US winter wheat area. Soil moisture readings for wheat area are near the lowest levels since 2010.&nbsp;

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US Soybean Acreage to Shrink to a Four-Year Low, Gro Predicts 

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Since 2014, the Gro platform has helped companies, financial institutions, and governments better understand the complex ecosystems of agriculture, climate, and the economy.Gro's data and analytics examine the intersectional effects of supply, climate, demand, and price to enable our customers to make decisions with confidence - and “see around the corner.”&nbsp;

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Latest Insights

China’s Grain Imports Reach Record With a Growing Reliance on Brazil

Damaged India Wheat Crop Could Drive Food Prices Higher

Brazil May Overtake US as World's Top Corn Exporter This Year

US Farmers to Apply More Nitrogen Fertilizer, Raising Corn Production Hopes

Atmospheric River Storm to Aggravate US Produce Supply Woes

USDA Again Cuts Argentina Soybean, Corn Outlook in Line With Gro Predictions

US Soybean Acreage to Shrink to a Four-Year Low, Gro Predicts

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