Gro Model Predicts Sucrose Decline in Brazil Sugarcane

As both drought and frost hit Brazil’s main sugar-producing region, Gro's satellite-data-driven model estimates the crop’s sucrose concentration in the second half of July was 146 kg/tonne, or about 2% below the year-earlier period. 

Gro’s TRS model for São Paulo state projects total recoverable sucrose (TRS) ahead of the semimonthly report by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association UNICA, enabling Gro users to get earlier insights on ethanol and sugar availability in the market. Sucrose is extracted from sugarcane and subsequently used to produce sugar or ethanol products. 

During Brazil’s sugarcane harvest period, from April to December, moderate crop stress is often beneficial to concentrate sucrose. For example, dry conditions typically reduce cane growth, but can increase sucrose concentration. So far this harvest season, sugarcane production is running 12% below year-earlier levels, while TRS is in line with last year’s average of 135 kg/tonne. 

This display, from Gro’s Navigator for Agriculture app, shows growing conditions in São Paulo’s sugarcane-growing areas.

Brazil’s sugarcane crop for the full year is expected to come in 6% below last year’s output. Sugar prices are at their highest levels since 2017, due to tight world supplies and Brazil’s expected lower production.

The Gro TRS model’s forecast for the second half of July is for 13% higher sucrose concentration than in the same period of 2013, when a similar freeze hit São Paulo during the peak producing period. A big difference is that this year Brazil’s largest sugar-growing area has also experienced severe drought conditions since May, as shown via the Gro Drought Index. 

Reach out to Gro at intel@gro-intelligence.com for more information and a demonstration of the Gro São Paulo TRS Model.

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.