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Access a curated data set of crop insights, climate analysis, and market prices.

Understand what creates and increases risk for the crops and region pairings you care about.

Use Gro’s Supply Risk Level to forecast forward supply risk over the next six months.

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<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/commodities-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Track the crops you care about </a>and work with Gro to integrate additional crops, data sources, and regions.

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Despite a steady decline in grain futures prices in recent months, prices for many soft commodities — including cocoa, coffee, sugar, cotton, and orange juice — have risen sharply.&nbsp;&nbsp;Tight inventories of some soft commodities have lifted prices to multi-year highs. El Niño has played a role in higher prices by hurting growing conditions, which reduced crop production and cut into supplies. Exports also suffered as some countries enacted trade restrictions to maintain adequate domestic stocks.&nbsp;With prices and crop conditions still volatile, keeping tabs on soft commodities — essential ingredients in most food manufacturing — is critical. Gro users can monitor prices, growing conditions, and supply risks using:&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/commodities-tracker" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Commodities Tracker</a>, which displays top producing regions, prices, and risks to supplies for an expanding range of major commodities.&nbsp;</li><li><a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, which displays and analyzes global growing conditions and forecasts, and can be weighted by crop and region.&nbsp;</li></ul>Here is a rundown of price movements, and the reasons behind them, for the soft commodities:&nbsp;Cocoa&nbsp;<ul><li>Cocoa futures prices have nearly doubled in the past year and continue to post new all-time highs, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/crop-insights/cocoa/ivory-coast/price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Commodities Tracker</a>. This comes as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QwWO6qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cocoa inventories</a> decline for a third year in a row.</li><li>Excess rainfall and disease pressure, especially from swollen shoot virus, have reduced main-crop cocoa bean arrivals at Cote d’Ivoire export terminals by one-third since the October start of the season versus the previous year.&nbsp;</li><li>2023&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/weather-conditions-forecasts?regionIds=1052&amp;weightNames=Cocoa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">accumulated precipitation</a> was the highest ever in more than 20 years in Cote d’Ivoire’s cocoa-growing areas, according to Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Now, hot and dry weather, driven primarily by El Niño, is hitting West Africa’s mid cocoa crop. The&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/growing-conditions?regionIds=1052&amp;weightNames=Cocoa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a> for Cote d’Ivoire’s cocoa areas is at its second-worst level for this time of year in over 10 years.</li><li>Cote d’Ivoire and neighboring countries account for three-quarters of all cocoa beans — a concentration of production that means the region’s weather has an outsize impact on global supplies.&nbsp;</li></ul>Coffee<ul><li>Robusta coffee front month&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/crop-insights/coffee/vietnam/price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">futures prices</a> reached a record high in late January and continue to hover just below that peak, according to Gro’s Commodities Tracker.&nbsp;</li><li>Tight robusta coffee&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9Qw3Vzqm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inventories</a> are helping to lift prices, as are unfavorable weather conditions in Southeast Asia’s coffee-growing regions, likely triggered by El Niño, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/el-nino-degrades-growing-conditions-for-asia-s-robusta-coffee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;</li><li>Price support also comes from rebel attacks on Red Sea shipping, which since early December have disrupted supply chains between Vietnam, the top robusta producer, and European and US East Coast markets.&nbsp;</li><li>While robusta prices are up 40% year on year,&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBvlxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Arabica prices</a> are little changed. Top Arabica producer Brazil saw its January&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdObEWz9w" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">green coffee exports</a> jump 32% from a year earlier to the highest level for the month in at least five years.&nbsp;</li></ul>Sugar<ul><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/crop-insights/sugarcane/india/price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sugar futures prices</a> hit a 12-year high in the fall and are currently at levels not seen since 2016. That comes as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dX00jgd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">world sugar stocks</a> have fallen for the past two years and are currently at the lowest level since 2011.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Dry conditions, brought on by El Niño, reduced sugarcane harvests in major producers&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/global-overview/precip-anom-monthly?regionIds=1094&amp;weightNames=Sugarcane" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/global-overview/precip-anom-monthly?regionIds=1197&amp;weightNames=Sugarcane" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Thailand</a>, as shown by Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator.&nbsp;</li><li>To maintain adequate domestic supplies, India in October extended sugar&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-bans-sugar-exports-as-domestic-prices-rise-and-supplies-fall" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">export restrictions</a> until further notice.&nbsp;</li><li>In Thailand, sugar millers are reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane in at least 13 years, largely stemming from drought.&nbsp;</li><li>In No. 1 producer Brazil, favorable weather in late 2023, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/sugar-futures-fall-on-brazil-s-upbeat-sugarcane-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, has given way to drier conditions in recent weeks —&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/growing-conditions?regionIds=1029&amp;weightNames=Sugarcane" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soil moisture levels</a> currently are at record lows for this time of year. Such volatile weather warrants close monitoring ahead of the new crop year starting in April.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>Cotton<ul><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/crop-insights/cotton/united-states/price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Cotton futures</a> remain elevated but well off the highs posted in 2022, according to Gro’s Commodities Tracker.&nbsp;</li><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEeKpRw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Cotton ending stocks</a> in the US, the No. 1 exporter, in 2023/24 dropped to a seven-year low after back-to-back years of drought weighed on production.</li><li>In 2024, US acres planted to cotton are set to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-cotton-acreage-will-jump-in-2024-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increase by double digits</a> from last year, according to early forecasts from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/models/us-planting-intentions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Planting Intentions Model</a>.</li></ul>Orange Juice<ul><li>Frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ)&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vqe4AwZdL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">front month futures</a> posted a record high in late 2023 and remain just below that peak. Inventories are the tightest on record.&nbsp;</li><li>Production in the US, the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QwW74qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">No. 2 producer after Brazil</a>, has been hurt by disease, extreme weather, and a decrease in the number of Florida orange farmers.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Florida acreage dedicated to growing oranges has declined by more than half since 2000.</li></ul>

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Prices Surge for Cocoa, Coffee, and Other ‘Soft’ Commodities

Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia looks set to increase to record levels this year despite earlier concerns that El Niño might trigger a reduction in output.&nbsp;Rainfall has been plentiful in the two countries’ major palm growing regions — as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/ui/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/weather-conditions-forecasts?regionIds=1095&amp;regionIds=1123&amp;weightNames=OilPalm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a> from Gro’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> — which is forecast to help hold palm oil yields mostly steady. Although El Niño, which set in in mid-2023, typically brings dry weather to the region — potentially hurting yields — the impact from the climate event has largely been concentrated in southern Indonesia where relatively little palm is produced.&nbsp;View&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMw6j9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> of palm oil production, trade, and crop health data. Indonesia and Malaysia account for a combined&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6Rwo1JARW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">85% of the world’s palm oil</a> production.Precipitation levels in Indonesia and Malaysia have been well&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6Rwo1rARW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">above historical norms</a> since November. Although El Niño is forecast to remain in effect at least through April, the chance that above average rainfall will continue in the coming months is greater than 50% in most areas, and above 80% in some locations, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmoB16R7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Indicator Forecast</a>. Forecasts this far in advance come with a high degree of uncertainty.Heavy rainfall in palm growing areas could lead to flooded fields, which often delays harvesting. However, forecasts also call for temperatures in the region to be well above average for several more months, which could increase evaporation.&nbsp;Harvested palm area, which has largely plateaued in recent years, is likely to increase only modestly in 2024 based on annual trends estimated from Gro's oil palm land use classification model. Gro built the model — which maps year-on-year changes in mature palm area via remote sensing and computer vision — as a key component in developing a palm oil production model that will integrate palm tree age and weather impacts to forecast production.&nbsp;Palm oil prices have moved little in the past year, whereas soybean oil prices are down 23% in that time. As a result, the price spread between palm and soy — the two most widely consumed oils — has narrowed from the record wide level seen last March (see chart below).&nbsp;The narrowed spread has moved the palm/soyoil price ratio back to within a historically normal range. That might allow food manufacturing companies, which can often use the two oils interchangeably, to take advantage of increased procurement options.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1707516425/new-website/Palm_Oil_vs_Soybean_Oil_Prices_ea5415fbe3.png"></figure>The spread between palm oil prices (blue line) and soybean oil prices (green) has narrowed from the record wide level seen in March 2023. As a result, the palm/soyoil price ratio (orange) — a factor food manufacturers consider in making purchasing decisions — has returned to within a historically normal range.

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Palm Oil Production Set to Rise as Crop Dodges the Impact of El Niño

Despite a volatile year of climate events, environmental conditions, and market instability,&nbsp;Gro Intelligence’s proprietary models accurately predicted crop yields months ahead of end-of-season reports averaging between 92%-99% accuracy against final government reporting.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Some highlights of Gro’s 2023 Performance Report include:<ul><li>For the past eight years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98% of the USDA final January report by September (three months in advance of final yield reporting).</li><li>Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September (i.e., three months in advance) since the model launched six years ago.</li><li>In regions where predictive modeling is not readily available or where data is hard to obtain — such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China — Gro’s 2023 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 96% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li></ul>

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2023 Performance Report: Gro Yield Forecast and Acreage Models

Sugar prices have retreated sharply from multi-year highs amid a brightening outlook for Brazil’s upcoming sugarcane crop, the world’s largest.&nbsp;In addition, India’s announcement that it intends to use more of its sugarcane crop to produce sugar — and less of it to produce ethanol — has also helped to push global sugar prices lower.&nbsp;Lifting Brazil’s sugar prospects is record-high accumulated precipitation in the top three sugarcane-growing states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, which can be weighted for specific crops. In São Paulo, rainfall totals for October and November were nearly double those of a year earlier, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2danE6Jqn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.Precipitation trends could continue to favor a healthy Brazil crop. While&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPB3K6R5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s forecast data</a> indicates below-normal rainfall through the end of December, the forecasts call for above-average precipitation in January and normal rainfall levels thereafter, although weather predictions that far into the future can be highly uncertain. Brazil’s rainy season runs from October through March and adequate precipitation is needed during sugarcane’s vegetative phase to stimulate rapid growth, stalk elongation, and internode formation.&nbsp;Brazilian government agency CONAB recently raised its estimate for sugarcane production for the current crop year, which ends in March 2024, to 677.6 million tonnes. That’s up nearly 11% from last year’s total and is nearly 4% ahead of CONAB’s previous estimate released in August.The improved prospects for Brazil’s sugarcane production come at a critical time when&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QW7P6qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global sugar stocks</a> are at the lowest level seen in the past decade. In addition, El Nino has increased risks to sugarcane production in India and Thailand, the No. 2 and No. 3 producers, as Gro highlighted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-bans-sugar-exports-as-domestic-prices-rise-and-supplies-fall" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;ICE&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3rVx59o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sugar futures prices</a> hovered at 12-year highs from mid-September to late November. While&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3rVx59o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">futures prices</a> have retreated from that peak — they are currently down over 18% since November 1 — prices are still up nearly 17% year over year.&nbsp;India’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-s-troubled-sugar-crop-could-further-boost-global-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">erratic monsoon rains</a> this season are expected to cut into the country’s ongoing sugarcane harvest. The country, which has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-bans-sugar-exports-as-domestic-prices-rise-and-supplies-fall" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">banned sugar exports</a> to contain domestic food price inflation, also announced plans to encourage a reduction in the amount of its sugarcane crop diverted to ethanol production to boost its sugar supplies.&nbsp;India has also imposed export restrictions on other commodities to control domestic inflation, including some types of rice, onions, wheat, and wheat flour.

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Sugar Futures Fall on Brazil’s Upbeat Sugarcane Outlook 

The USDA turned its focus to South America in the December WASDE report, trimming its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production to reflect the erratic rainfall and heat stress afflicting many parts of the country.&nbsp;In an unusual move this early in the season, the USDA lowered its forecast for the Brazil soybean harvest to 161 million tonnes, down 1.2% from last month’s projection, but still ahead of last year’s revised record output of 160 million tonnes. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans and competes with the US to satisfy China’s soybean import demand, which has skyrocketed to record levels over the last two decades, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGLkPXqZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.Brazil corn production estimates were left unchanged, despite the heavy rainfall in the country’s south that has damaged the first corn crop. Brazil’s much larger second corn crop, or safrinha, will face its own yield risks when planting begins in early 2024 because of delays to the current soybean crop.&nbsp;Excess rainfall in southern Brazil contrasts with dry conditions in the center of the country, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/threat-to-brazil-s-soy-crop-grows-as-erratic-rainfall-persists" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. In Mato Grosso, the largest soybean growing state, precipitation in October and November was 53% below the 30-year average, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. Drought readings for the state are close to “severe” levels as measured by the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a> and are the second highest in 20 years, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22IBGE+Soybeans+%28Brazil+only%29%22&amp;region_id=10418" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display,</a> weighted for Mato Grosso’s soybean-growing areas.The USDA left unchanged its forecasts for Argentina’s corn and soybean production, which are projected to jump by 62% and 92%, respectively, from last year’s weak output — a result of La Niña-induced drought. This year, beneficial rains since mid-October — which may have been helped by El Niño — have lowered Gro Drought Index readings and boosted soil moisture levels for both Argentina’s soybeans and corn, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22MAGyP+Corn+%28Argentina+only%29%22%2C%22MAGyP+Soybeans+%28Argentina+only%29%22&amp;region_id=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display</a>.&nbsp;Argentina is the No.1 exporter of soybean meal and oil. It is also the third-largest corn exporter, after Brazil and the US.&nbsp;Gro’s machine-learning Yield Forecast Models for Brazil and Argentina, included in our South America Crop Production Monitors for&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxByngR2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daEeD7dn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>, will begin generating daily forecasts in mid-December when the crops become established.&nbsp;While the USDA left unchanged its estimate for US corn production, the agency reduced US corn ending stocks by 1.2%, as exports were raised by 25 million bushels. The US currently is the lowest cost shipper as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/K9p7bWaRE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> of global export prices. US soybean ending stocks were left unchanged.The USDA also cut US wheat ending stocks by 3.7% as export demand picked up with recent soft red winter wheat sales to China. Despite the uptick, total US wheat exports are still projected to be the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd4o7jA9j" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lowest since 1971</a>.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the USDA slightly raised its estimates for Canadian wheat production, up 3.1% to 31.95 million tonnes, and for Australian wheat production, up 4.1% to 25.5 million tonnes. But the agency cut by nearly 11% its forecast for Brazil wheat output due to excessive rains in the south.&nbsp;China is expected to be the world’s largest wheat importer this year (2023/24), with the country’s wheat import estimate raised another 4.2% to 12.5 million tonnes. China’s own wheat crop suffered from untimely rains during harvest season, as Gro highlighted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/china-s-wheat-imports-could-hit-new-high-in-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. China’s soybean import estimate was also raised by 2% to a record 102 million tonnes on strong shipments from&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d5zvemq0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Brazil</a> and the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdObQvz9w" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US</a>.&nbsp;

USDA Cuts Its Forecast for Brazil Soybean Production on Inconsistent Weather

In further fallout from India’s weak monsoon rains,&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBxB2qQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indian rice production</a> could decline for the first time in eight years, adding support to already&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRypGbeq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">elevated global rice prices</a>.&nbsp;India, normally the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2danEKDqn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">largest rice exporter</a>, banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July in an attempt to curb domestic food price inflation, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-considers-broadening-rice-export-curbs-as-domestic-food-inflation-mounts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. A shortfall in 2023/24 rice production would boost India’s domestic food price inflation and increase pressure on the government to expand the export ban.Due in part to El Niño, this year’s monsoon delivered erratic precipitation across many of India’s major crop-producing regions from June-September, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBYMJq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> shows — damaging the country’s main, or kharif, crop, which accounts for around 70% of total rice production. Now, low soil moisture is threatening the rabi, or summer crop, which is currently being planted.&nbsp;Unlike the kharif crops, which rely on rains, the off-season rabi crops largely depend on adequate soil moisture and irrigation. While soil moisture levels in West Bengal, India’s largest rice-growing state, have risen since late November, they have been near historic lows for much of the year, as seen in this display from&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22Rice%22&amp;region_id=11207" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> weighted to the state’s rice-growing regions. In&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22Rice%22&amp;region_id=11205" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttar Pradesh</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-risk-navigator/current-conditions/?weight_names=%22Rice%22&amp;region_id=11200" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Punjab</a>, the second and third top rice-producing states, soil moisture is declining.The El Niño weather pattern tends to bring less rainfall and warmer temperatures to key rice-growing areas in Asia. The last time India saw a decrease in rice production was 2015/16, also an El Niño year.&nbsp;A smaller Indian rice crop would especially impact countries like Bangladesh, China, Benin, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, which rely on&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BvMZ79M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India’s rice exports</a>. India has consistently been the lowest-priced rice supplier, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR877Jbqe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> shows.&nbsp;The weak 2023 monsoon has also caused production problems for other food staples produced in India, including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-s-wheat-crop-could-falter-for-2024-25-as-el-nino-strengthens" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-s-erratic-monsoon-could-hurt-soybean-crop-and-drive-up-edible-oil-imports" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>. With El Niño forecast to bring more unfavorable weather through early 2024, India could increase its grain imports to meet demand.&nbsp;

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India’s Rice Production Set to Fall After Weak Monsoon

A seasonal return of the deadly avian flu is giving a lift to US egg prices in the midst of the key holiday baking season when supermarket egg sales ramp up.&nbsp;Consumers and food manufacturers should expect wholesale egg prices to continue to rise into the first quarter of 2024, although prices are unlikely to reach the record highs seen this time last year, Gro predicts.&nbsp;Helping to limit the price gains: Relatively dry weather this year in the Midwest’s big egg-producing counties, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, resulted in a sharp drop in the number of HPAI cases this summer and fall compared with last year. The virus, typically spread by migrating wild birds, thrives in wetter conditions, which increase contamination rates. (See chart below.)&nbsp;This year’s first large culling of layer chickens took place in November, when more than 5 million birds were killed, especially in Iowa and Ohio, the two biggest egg-producing states. Last year, large cullings due to HPAI began in early spring, more than six months earlier.Layers culled so far this season represent a small portion of the total&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBPkxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US flock of over 389 million birds</a>. However, it’s enough to start wholesale prices on the upswing.&nbsp;Average wholesale egg prices peaked at $4.49 per dozen in December 2022 before dropping sharply in the spring, with avian flu seemingly at bay. This past September, prices averaged $1.22/doz and dipped below $1/doz in October. Now, wholesale prices are rising again, as a combination of holiday buying and the beginnings of a surge in HPAI have boosted table eggs back to $2.38/doz.In 2022, HPAI transmissions surged during the US spring and fall wild bird migrations, and about 58 million animals from commercial poultry flocks were lost to the virus, squeezing egg production and putting sharp upward pressure on prices. The most severe HPAI outbreak was in 2015, with 50.5 million deaths in commercial flocks over a short, four-month time period.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The latest HPAI outbreak also is impacting US turkey flocks, with 2.5 million culled in the fourth quarter to date, especially in Minnesota. The virus had little impact on Thanksgiving celebrations, or prices, as producers prepare frozen turkeys long ahead of the holiday. However, there could be a small impact in some parts of the country on the availability of fresh turkeys during the Christmas holiday season.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1701810901/new-website/Dry_Weather_in_Egg_Producing_Areas_Should_Limit_HPAI_Layer_Deaths_d03906d116.png"></figure>Total precipitation over the past month has been below historical averages in most US egg-producing regions (represented by circles), which has helped to limit the spread of avian flu, or HPAI. On this map from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, red areas show below-average rainfall and blue is above average.

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