Need for Speed: How Gro's Daily-Updating Yield Forecast Models Enable Market-Beating Moves

Gro Intelligence’s machine learning predictive yield models are a core component of Gro’s suite of innovative agricultural analytics products. Yield is a key driver of the supply and price of agricultural commodities, and Gro’s daily-updating models enable partners to anticipate demand and inform strategy days or even weeks ahead of market-moving yield estimates published each month by the USDA. They also accurately predict end-of-season yield several months in advance of final government reporting.  

Gro’s yield forecast models provide in-season, daily updates across the US, China, Argentina, Brazil, India, Canada, Australia and the Black Sea region, and cover over 90% of global soybean exports, 70% of global corn exports, and 50% of global wheat exports. Our models can be used as a leading indicator, available months in advance of market-moving government yield estimates and corresponding changes in futures prices. 

One of the most important differentiators of Gro’s models is that they update every single day, whereas the next most reliable sources in the US, for example, are weekly crop conditions reports or monthly yield forecasts provided by the USDA. 

Each day, Gro automatically calculates a prediction of yield based on the best currently available sets of satellite and weather station data. Our models are also designed to be flexible and resilient; If any upstream data source is obstructed, delayed or otherwise offline on a given day, the models adapt by re-weighting available auxiliary data sources and filling in the gaps in the calculation accordingly. 

Most users of yield models may not require insight into yield forecasts every single day. However, a key purpose of the daily-updating feature of Gro’s models is to provide the most up-to-date information at any given moment, giving users the flexibility and confidence to take action anytime important decisions are imminent. 

Another critical outcome of the daily-updating feature is that users can discover multi-day trends in daily weather conditions that could impact crop health. These discoveries often precede government reporting and the subsequent reaction in the crop futures markets. The path of the daily values is therefore particularly useful for agribusinesses, financial traders, insurance negotiators, procurement officers, and others, to get ahead of forthcoming market-moving news out of the USDA and equivalent institutions globally. 

To learn more about Gro’s Yield models, read our recent yield model Q&A here, or reach out for a demo through the link here.