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Featured

Spain’s parched soils and intense drought are afflicting a broad range of crops and threatening to drive food prices higher in many EU countries.&nbsp;So far this year, cumulative rainfall in Spain is less than one-fourth of the 10-year average, as shown in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. The Gro Drought Index (see chart below) shows “extreme” drought levels across the region’s croplands — the highest recorded reading in at least two decades — while soil moisture levels are the lowest since at least 2010, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1188,Spain$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cropland%20Area%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:14,Europe:1188,Spain" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display</a>.&nbsp;Spain is a top producer of&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/EqZv7VLq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fruits and vegetables</a> in the European Union. The country’s tomato crop is particularly vulnerable to drought as it is highly dependent on irrigation for its development and survival throughout the season. And with water supplies strictly rationed in the country, crop production is likely to suffer.&nbsp;Spain is the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/rdrJ5pndZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">third-largest exporter of tomatoes</a>, with an annual value that typically tops $1 billion. Spain also produces wheat, barley, rice, and olive oil.&nbsp;Increased fresh produce prices would exacerbate already high food price inflation, which has been running at double-digit rates across the European Union. Since January 2020, when global food price inflation began to accelerate, EU food prices are up 31%, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/ag-price-impact-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Agricultural Price Inflation Application</a>.&nbsp;Wheat and barley are Spain’s principal winter cereal crops, and poor weather is forecast to&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEAGGRw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">slash wheat output</a> this year. Shortfalls in wheat production, which is mainly used domestically for feed use, necessitate greater imports from neighboring EU countries. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine was one of Spain's top suppliers of grains.Drought conditions in Spain have been exacerbated by searing temperatures.&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-anomalies/?country=1188&amp;province=1188&amp;climate_series=Temperature&amp;num_days=2023-04-15&amp;date_picker=2023-05-17&amp;map_crop_choice=Cropland+Area&amp;crop_picker=Cropland+Area&amp;col_choice=Current+Temperature+%28%C2%B0C%29">Gro’s Climate Anomalies app</a> shows temperatures over the past month in Extremadura province, the top tomato producing region, have been nearly 9 degrees Celsius above the historical average. Spain has experienced heightened drought conditions since 2022.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;

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Spain’s Drought Threatens to Push Up EU Food Prices

July wheat traded down 4.75% and corn traded down 4.5% intraday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wednesday after Russia said it would extend its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, reminding farmers, traders, and procurement managers of just how volatile the situation in the war-torn region has become.The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which has been extended for an additional two months, has been critically important in restoring Ukrainian grain flows to the world by creating a safe transit corridor from the war-torn country, as Gro highlighted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/ukraine-export-accord-s-renewal-is-critical-for-world-grain-supplies-and-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Plenty of uncertainty around global wheat production and trade remains, especially in the Black Sea, since 2023/24 grain crops are far from settled. Because of lower planted area, wheat production in both Russia and Ukraine is forecast to be lower despite higher predicted yields, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxvm2d4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro's Black Sea Wheat Yield Models</a>.USDA has 2023/24&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd4ZVXXRj" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukraine wheat production</a> at 16.5 million tonnes with exports at 10 million tonnes, down from 21% and 33%, respectively, from the previous year. Ukraine’s corn production is estimated at 22 million tonnes in 2023/24, down 19% year over year, and corn exports at 16.5 million tonnes, down 35%.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3r6nn9o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global wheat ending stocks</a>, outside of China, are at their lowest level since 2008/09. Meanwhile, 2023/24 wheat production in many countries is at risk from drought — the&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/0,World$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a>, aggregated for all the world’s wheat-growing regions using&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, is at its highest level in at least two decades. While&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/canada-s-spring-wheat-acreage-to-increase-but-dry-conditions-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Canada’s wheat&nbsp;</a>production is expected to increase, early indications are for weaker harvests in Russia, India, Ukraine, and Australia. Argentina’s wheat production bears close monitoring amid lingering drought. The country is currently planting its wheat crop.&nbsp;Russia had threatened to quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative multiple times, causing price gyrations. Exacerbating the erratic trades is the speculative position held by managed funds in Chicago wheat;&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDvkk2dV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">managed money</a> as of May 9 was net short nearly 117,000 contracts.The U.N. and Turkey brokered the Black Sea export agreement in July last year to help tackle a global food crisis that has been aggravated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, one of the world's leading grain exporters. Since then, Moscow agreed to extend the export agreement in November for an additional 120 days, and in March for a further 60-day period.&nbsp; &nbsp;

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Russia Agrees to Extend Ukraine Grain Export Accord

The US Supreme Court’s backing late last week for California’s Proposition 12 animal welfare rule looks set to restrict pork and pork product supplies in the state beginning in 2024, while potentially bloating supplies and depressing prices in the rest of the country.The California law, which mandates increased space requirements for sows giving birth, is set to take effect July 1, unless the state changes the timeline. That effectively will require pork sold in California be compliant with the new regulation as of January 1, 2024, given the time it takes for the piglets to grow to market weight.&nbsp;California accounts for about 15% of the country’s pork consumption, while less than 5% of the US pork supply is currently compliant with the state’s new regulation. The 10% difference, representing excess pork supplies that would be barred from California, could need to be added to market supplies outside of the state, further squeezing the industry’s already tight profit margins.The US hog industry already has scaled back operations — and further cuts to herd sizes are planned — in anticipation of the new California restrictions and in response to soft consumer demand. Pork processors for the most part have indicated they aren’t willing to pay to retool their barns to comply with the California law without evidence that consumers will accept paying higher meat costs.&nbsp;View&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQlZA9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> showing US hog inventories and locations, as well as farrowing and slaughter rates.&nbsp;Smithfield Foods, the largest US player, phased out its only California pork processing plant over the past two years, citing the high costs of operating in the state. Last week, Smithfield announced it was closing more than 30 sow operations around the country, again citing competitive costs.&nbsp;Other hog producers also are cutting back. The USDA’s latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released in March, showed the US breeding herd is at the lowest level since 2017. Farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2023 — or producers’ plans to raise new piglets — showed a 3% decline, which would drop farrowing rates to the lowest level since 2015.Even those cutbacks may not be enough to offset excess supplies currently sold in California, and further industry reductions could be forthcoming. Not all pork products will be affected by the California law — hot dogs and sausage, for example, are exempt. But bacon shortages are widely expected in the state beginning in 2024.&nbsp;Adding to the uncertain industry outlook — many questions remain outstanding about the new California law, which first passed in 2018 and has long been delayed. For one thing, it’s unclear if California will bar noncompliant product from entering the state or impose a fine. How the state will enforce the law also hasn’t been made clear, leading to speculation that clandestine sales of noncompliant meat could proliferate.&nbsp;

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California Law Has US Pork Industry Bracing for Excess Supplies

Gro Intelligence has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro's data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through artificial intelligence, generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;In this report, we focus on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Models for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton.&nbsp;You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September. Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September for the last four years.</li><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s suite of machine-learning models provide an unprecedented combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates to enable our customers to move ahead of the market.</li></ul>Download the 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models?utm_campaign=End%20of%20the%20Year%20Report%20-%20January%202023&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--DAawbx4JnPmIhs6GrNfist1fGwSINeh_jnpFQ9_1aaJrTOxCIMEY1Xq-DyHJPXbhZ9TUpn5frwnku07Tb0UXCk7b3NiU9gn6sw5XtheL7Ena6_aw&amp;utm_content=2&amp;utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.

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2022 Performance Report: Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models

In this report, we will talk about how to use growing and climate conditions in a systematic way to better anticipate impact on final yield throughout the growing season—from planting to harvest.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/incorporating-climate-into-agricultural-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here.</a>

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Incorporating Climate Into Agricultural Forecasting

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Gro has added a new Climate Indicator for Observed Fire (GCI - Observed Fire) to our growing Climate Risk Assessment Suite to help companies, financial institutions, and governments better identify and respond to the impacts of wildfires on populations, farmland, infrastructure, and investment portfolios.Wildfires are a growing concern worldwide, particularly in countries and regions seeing higher temperatures and longer stretches of drought, where fire can spread more easily.&nbsp;Tools that monitor the outbreak of fires have become a key component of any comprehensive climate risk assessment. However, the need to normalize and integrate historical data from multiple platforms has made it difficult to access a consistent history of fire occurrences and severity at a global scale. While local agencies are a key resource in assessing the impact and spread of live fire emergencies, their analyses can now be paired with the historical context provided by the GCI - Observed Fire, which goes back 20 years.<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.6%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1684179548/new-website/image4_beccd6b64d.png"></figure>The GCI - Observed Fire draws from high-resolution satellite imagery to track historical fire observations for every district worldwide. Available at the district, province, and national levels globally for the last two decades, the Indicator provides a “percent area with detected fire” across districts for each day, month, or year.&nbsp;Now, with this Indicator,<ul><li>Companies can identify the regions where fires are most likely to occur to understand the potential impacts on their supply chains.&nbsp;</li><li>Financial institutions can conduct studies on specific physical assets, commodities, or portfolio holdings in order to understand instances of damage and their impacts, as well as factors such as insurance rate changes.</li><li>Governments can conduct detailed analyses to better understand impacts on populations and infrastructure, as well as better position assets to respond more quickly and efficiently.</li></ul>The GCI - Observed Fire is accessible in Gro’s <a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Risk Navigator Application</a> and the Gro API and can be paired with Gro’s other available Climate Indicators, such as Water Stress, Observed Flood, or Drought, to name a few examples, to get a holistic understanding of climate risk. Additionally, users can weight the Indicator by cropland or asset. For example, Observed Fire can be used to understand the recent fires in Canada (reflected in the clip below), and the potential overlap with populations, infrastructure assets, or crop growing areas - in order to better plan and prepare for damages.&nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.68%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1684181895/new-website/timeline_2_df7a053c11.gif"></figure>Later this year, Gro will continue to improve upon its suite of Climate Indicators by - among other improvements and additions -&nbsp; making the GCI - Observed Fire predictive. This will allow companies, financial institutions, and governments to anticipate outbreaks of fire globally and plan for the event.<a href="mailto: salesteam@gro-intelligence.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Contact a member of our team</a> to see how to leverage the GCI - Observed Fire to meet your business needs.

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Gro Adds Global Observed Fire Indicator to Climate Risk Assessment Suite

Gro has launched a new Climate Indicator for Water Stress (GCI - Water Stress) to help companies, financial institutions, and governments better manage and respond to risk in water-stress-prone areas around the world.&nbsp;Water stress occurs when there is high competition among users, causing demand for water to exceed water availability. High water stress can be caused by low water supply and high demand, but it can also occur when water supply is high. In a high water supply situation, water demand can still be higher, resulting in high water stress.The GCI - Water Stress measures the ratio between water withdrawals (demand) and water availability (supply) across watersheds worldwide to show the amount of water stress globally, as well as at the national, district, or watershed levels for a more granular view.&nbsp;Accessible through Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator Application and the Gro API, the GCI - Water Stress provides water stress data scored on a 0-5 scale, where 0 represents low water stress and 5 represents high water stress. Higher water stress values indicate more competition among users, and low water stress values indicate there is enough water available for the users in that area.&nbsp;With this information,<ul><li>Companies can assess which assets or production-specific facilities are in water-stress prone areas to improve corporate reporting and better manage supply chain risk.&nbsp;</li><li>Supranational, or national, state, and regional governments can see regions under their jurisdiction that are high water-stress areas to correlate with other economic factors or to target specific funding programs.</li><li>Investors and portfolio managers can evaluate which companies are concentrated in areas with high water stress, as well as study new decisions that companies are making, such as where they build new factories, to see if those are areas where water stress is high.&nbsp;</li></ul>Gro provides both an actual water stress score - which represents baseline water stress values directly from the data source calculated at the watershed level - as well as Gro’s unique weighted average water stress score, which takes actual water stress score values and averages these values across Gro’s regions. The GCI - Water Stress score can additionally be weighted by the asset selected by the user, such as power plants or transportation, to show which assets would be most affected by water stress.Water stress, as it considers both water supply as well as demand, differs fundamentally from drought measurements provided by the Gro Drought Index, which only measures water supply. In addition, the GCI - Water Stress provides a static, average value over a large time interval, whereas the GDI value represents dynamic values that update every day.The GCI - Water Stress complements Gro’s existing climate risk assessment analytics, which allows customers to forecast the impact of various climate risks - from drought to excessive rainfall - on infrastructure, crop-growing regions, or other assets. It can be additionally used with Gro’s Land Suitability Model to indicate which regions most suitable for growing certain crops have water stress risks.<a href="mailto: salesteam@gro-intelligence.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Contact a member of our team</a> to see how to leverage the GCI - Water Stress to meet your business needs.

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Gro Expands Climate Risk Assessment Suite With New Water Stress Scoring

According to the&nbsp;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/">synthesis report</a> released in mid-March, keeping global warming to 1.5°C is achievable with a quantum leap in climate action. This leap is only made possible through a global effort to enact policies and measures that will lead to deep and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.&nbsp;To better analyze carbon emissions policies at the country level, along with the cost of compliance implied by each country’s&nbsp;CO2&nbsp;reduction policies,&nbsp;Gro and Kepos Capital have partnered to launch the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™.&nbsp;<a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/carbon-barometer">Click here to explore the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™</a>The&nbsp;<a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/carbon-barometer">Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer</a>™ tracks seven major&nbsp;CO2 emissions reduction policy categories for more than 25 countries which make up over 83% of global emissions,&nbsp;using both public databases and government sources.&nbsp;It normalizes the policies into a “Carbon Barometer Price™” – the amount, in US dollars, that emitters must pay on average per ton of&nbsp;CO2 emissions as an incentive to develop and leverage low-carbon drivers of economic growth. This makes it simple to analyze the financial incentive for each country to comply with policies designed to reduce carbon emissions.The “carbon barometer” concept was originally developed by&nbsp;world-renowned financial and quantitative investing experts Bob Litterman and Mark Carhart of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.keposcapital.com/#/">Kepos Capital</a> in consultation with climate economists and carbon policy experts. That concept has been operationalized by bringing together Gro’s and Kepos’s combined domain expertise in climate and economic research, and by leveraging Gro’s demonstrated success in the automated ingestion and organization of complex, global datasets. Throughout its development and on an on-going basis, this joint Gro-Kepos effort is supported by&nbsp;carbon policy thought leaders from academia, environmental non-profits, and the private sector who provide advice and feedback, serving as the Carbon Barometer™ Advisory Board.Operationally, the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™ will enable high-emitting countries committed to climate action to identify and understand&nbsp;CO2 policy actions that have been successful elsewhere and then, in implementing their own policies, to consistently measure progress against global benchmarks. And because the Carbon Barometer Price™ is provided globally, the metric supports the creation and monitoring of new, Paris-aligned sustainability investments in typically lower-emitting developing countries.By providing a standardized metric for measuring countries’&nbsp;CO2 emission reduction policy progress, the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™ can be used to study which policies are the most effective at reducing a country’s&nbsp;CO2 emissions. For example, if the Carbon Barometer Price™ is low versus other countries or the global price, it indicates that a government is doing comparatively little to reduce its emissions via policy action. As the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer’s™ time series goes back to 2008, users can also use it to track the evolution of policy over time, signaling how serious each country has become about enacting carbon policies.&nbsp;Additionally, the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™ will serve as an important new benchmark for financial markets, enabling issuers to measure performance of sustainability-linked instruments and lenders to invest in line with sustainability goals for their portfolios. With almost 15 years of high-quality, back-testable data, this automated metric can be leveraged by asset managers as both a signal for research and for investment analytics.In less than eight months, world leaders will be gathering at COP28 in the UAE to launch the process for preparing the next cycle of nationally determined contributions, due in 2025, making a clearer view into how much countries are doing to reduce&nbsp;CO2 emissions even more critical. These national climate plans aimed at reducing emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change will need to reflect the accelerated climate action that the world needs during this decade and the next.&nbsp;<a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/carbon-barometer">Click here to explore the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™</a>For any questions on the Carbon Barometer™ or to learn more about Gro’s data and analytics, contact us at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a>. <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/carbon-barometer" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/kYMt81HEqqw4oh7hD64mgCr-WmQRDnK4jUshKpDYWaXt72Jh2U7uO2bKlUCu-z57k1dllK1m7rFIUkNiA02k7cPSLmuqFO9K5LqAZET_gxAt02IALforlS6t6QpuNTGMkbKttGN7WJViFtfEQtKcAAw"></a>About Gro’s Partnership with Kepos Capital&nbsp;Gro’s partnership with Kepos Capital represents a unique opportunity to advance efforts to reduce&nbsp;CO2 emissions and advance climate financing. Under the terms of this agreement, Gro was provided with the underlying data that supported Kepos’ earlier version of the Carbon Barometer™.&nbsp;Kepos Capital was founded in 2010 by Mark Carhart, Giorgio De Santis, and Bob Litterman, the&nbsp;co-developer of the Black-Litterman Global Asset Allocation Model, a key tool in modern investment management. Litterman also chairs the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer’s™ Advisory Board.&nbsp;The Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™&nbsp;<a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/carbon-barometer/advisory-board">Advisory Board</a>, which was created to facilitate research in the climate-policy and climate financing space, does not participate in any aspect of Kepos Capital LP investing, Kepos Capital LP, or Gro Intelligence operations, and it in no way endorses any Gro Intelligence or Kepos Capital LP products.

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Gro and Kepos Capital Partner to Launch the Gro-Kepos Carbon Barometer™

<a href="https://www.dtn.com/">DTN</a>®, a data, analytics, and technology company, and Gro Intelligence, an AI company with a focus on agricultural markets and climate, have blended their data and modeling expertise to provide grain marketers and buyers with predictive county-level grain supply insights that can help reduce risk.&nbsp;Gro Supply Location Monitor is a cloud-based application that connects exclusive grain market and pricing information from DTN with Gro’s AI-driven, predictive insights to better assess the economics and risk of buying, storing, and handling grain at over 4,000 facilities across the United States.Access to more precise in-season U.S. production and price data throughout the season enables companies to tap into a more accurate view of risk, investment opportunities, profit potential, and price fluctuations. Whether as a primary source across multiple facilities or as a secondary source verifying in-person monitoring, buying and lending teams can leverage the Supply Location Monitor to streamline their buying, selling, and planning processes."In today’s volatile markets grain marketers are seeking solutions that can help them reduce harvest uncertainty. We know that better data drives better decisions and with DTN pricing data and unique commodity insights as part of Gro Intelligence Supply Location Monitor, organizations can make smarter, agile decisions with confidence," said Grey Montgomery, DTN Global Leader for Strategy, Corporate Development and Growth Markets."DTN and Gro are bringing together exclusive boots-on-the-ground insights with comprehensive, real-time visibility that Gro’s satellite data coupled with AI and machine learning can add," said Jim Heneghan, SVP of Agribusiness at Gro. "This Monitor is a dynamic extension of this opportunity."Even deep on-the-ground knowledge cannot make up for the decisioning accuracy needed in the face of extreme weather events such as droughts and flooding, which has increased in-season volatility in corn and soybean yields. This past growing season, the USDA significantly lowered its final yield numbers for corn and soybeans from their original estimates, which Gro’s Yield Forecast Models - a critical input into the Supply Location Monitor - forecasted months in advance.&nbsp;In addition to Gro’s county-level Yield Forecast Models that update daily, the Supply Location Monitor incorporates Gro’s unique, proprietary data across climate and environmental conditions, Gro’s acreage estimates, as well as ingested private and public sources across historical production and harvested area to provide highly accurate in-season production and market depth information.Visit<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/supply-location-monitor"> here</a> to learn more about the Gro Supply Location Monitor or <a href="mailto: todd.meyer@dtn.com">contact</a> the team directly.

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DTN and Gro Intelligence Provide New Insights on U.S. Grain Facilities

Early forecasts generated by Gro’s US Corn and US Soybean Planting Intentions Models show corn acres will substantially outnumber US acres planted to soybeans this year. Amid a general acreage expansion for both crops, the models currently show the US’ soybean-to-corn ratio at a 10-year low for this time of year.&nbsp;From the beginning of February, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton generate daily national-level projections on planted acres, along with state and regional forecasts. The Models provide users with an early insight into the upcoming US crop supplies and farmers’ input needs. Our acreage models’ final acreage forecasts are available in early March, about three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report’s release.&nbsp;Unlike the USDA’s report, which relies on farmer surveys to arrive at estimates of what farmers are expected to plant for the upcoming season, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models consider inputs ranging from the total viable farmland available to plant corn, soybeans, wheat, or cotton to the factors that change the opportunity cost between them.&nbsp;As the US is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers globally, changes in US planting intentions impact crop supply and prices worldwide. Market participants can also use the models’ state-level planting intention forecasts to predict regional demand for seeds, fertilizer, crop protection supplies, and machinery.&nbsp;Typically, high fertilizer prices favor soybean plantings over corn because soybeans require much less fertilizer than corn. Currently, fertilizer prices are elevated relative to the 10-year historical average, but this does not appear to be deterring farmers from increasing corn acreage because fertilizer prices are down by more than 40% compared with this time last year.&nbsp;In early 2022, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn and soybeans did not account for the surge in fertilizer prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. After we substantially improved these Models to incorporate fertilizer prices, our 2022 estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions came within 98% of the USDA’s 2022 report, as our latest <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/hubfs/2022%20Gro%20End%20of%20Year%20Performance.pdf">Performance Report on Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models</a> shows.In 2022, Gro’s US Wheat and US Cotton Planting Intentions Models’ acreage estimates were also within 98% of the USDA’s Prospective Planting report.&nbsp;<a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> to learn more about Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models, available with a Premium subscription. &nbsp;

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Gro’s 2023 US Planting Intentions Forecasts Are Coming In, Heavily Favoring Corn

In a time of unprecedented supply and demand shocks, early and accurate yield forecasts and planted acreage estimates are indispensable.&nbsp;Gro’s highly accurate Global Yield Forecast and Acreage Models offer a holistic view of global food supply up to 10 months in advance of final government reporting. These models are a key indicator for supply, prices, and farmer profitability and can be used to make decisions around product pricing, sourcing, trading, or policymaking.Gro’s suite of machine-learning models currently cover 80% of global production for corn, soy, and wheat. They provide an unmatched combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates.&nbsp;Gro’s 2022 Models Accurately Predicted Yields and Planted Acreage Up To 10 Months Before Final Government ReportingIn our latest performance report, we look back on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Model for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton, in 2022.&nbsp;This is the only report currently available in the market that compares model performance against ground truth data in a comprehensive, transparent way. Our analysis shows that Gro’s models accurately predicted yields and planted acreage, averaging within 95%-98% of final government reporting up to 10 months in advance.&nbsp;Key takeaways of our 2022 report include:<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September (i.e., four months in advance). Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September (i.e., four months in advance) for the last four years.</li><li>This remained true during the 2022 US growing season. By September, Gro’s forecasts for corn and soy were already within 98% of the USDA’s final January reporting. Gro’s models thus provided an earlier view of final numbers, allowing customers to move ahead of the market.&nbsp;</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:84.13%;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/f1CcWiAXnVscC279rcf0_HGjcDJg_5hyCPJriq9EtDibGmgt8I6dtvgi2_sGHFt29seHLLZLMDz414zJzjtkVQpohR4fpVw78InVqQJsV6DVFhOBr1lj3OxbSMQI6vjlr9otlzt7L3ATv8PzFid-1CKbC91zENNKO8eMhZal7VvnktJ0BuBqYHVbCFp6uQ"><figcaption>During the 2022 growing season, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model was showing yields consistently below USDA estimates starting in June, providing early insight into lower-than-expected production and potentially lower exports. The model dropped mid-season due to extreme high temperatures, recovering a bit in August as conditions improved. The forecasts stabilized in September and were already within 98% of USDA final January reporting.</figcaption></figure>&nbsp;<ul><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s US Planting Intentions Model for corn and soybeans did not initially account for the surge in fertilizer prices in early 2022. As a result, our model’s estimates, published early February, were higher than the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, published March 31, 2022. However, after we enhanced our Planting Intentions Model by incorporating fertilizer prices, our estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions showed significant improvement and were within 98% of the USDA’s March 31, 2022 report.</li></ul>The Unique Power of the Gro PlatformGro Intelligence is an AI-driven data and analytics company helping businesses, financial institutions, and governments make better decisions on food security and climate risk.Gro has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro’s data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through AI , generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;Gro’s Global Yield Forecast Models leverage high-resolution satellite data that capture every field in every district or province, not just random fields as with traditional crop survey methods, making the data more precise. Our Yield Forecast and Acreage Models are significantly more accurate, and available earlier, because of the blending of multiple unique skill sets across research and data science, comprehensive global data sources and variables, geospatial expertise, and machine and human learning.<a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> for a demo or to learn more about our predictive models.Download the full 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models">here</a>.

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Get Accurate Forecasts 10 Months Ahead of Final Government Reporting

At a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel session on January 18th, Gro Intelligence’s CEO Sara Menker joined United Nations World Food Program executive director David Beasley, Bayer AG’s CEO Werner Baumann, Hanneke Faber, president of Unilever’s nutrition group, and CNBC anchor Steve Sedgwick to discuss the challenges facing global food systems, global food security, and what a credible transition to a resilient agrifood system will require.&nbsp;For the panelists taking part in the WEF’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2023/sessions/innovating-for-food-security">Revolutionizing Food Security</a> discussion, private sector involvement, enabling policies that take farmer profitability into account, and a long-term game plan centered on sustainability, decarbonization, and maintaining yields are the critical components of the resilient global food system that the world needs to build.&nbsp;While that is a tall order, Gro’s CEO Sara Menker said that there is a lot that agrifood systems can learn from the global energy market transition.&nbsp;“It has taken a lot of private capital to move to the conversations that we are having today about clean energy, and the catalyst for that has been data,” Menker said.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to get people to pay attention to food system risk, the agricultural commodity market needs to be able to articulate risks more clearly, she said. Lenders and investors need timely, granular data to measure, price, and transfer risks more effectively, she added.&nbsp;Because relatively few agricultural commodities trade on exchanges, market participants currently have very few options for managing their risks, especially medium to long-term exposures. “If you take the most liquid agricultural product in the world today, it's corn in the US. And [today] if you can sell that two years forward, it's still a miracle,” Menker said.&nbsp;Yet to make actionable and credible long-term plans that align with sustainability and decarbonization objectives and feeding the world’s 8 billion people, market participants across the spectrum need real-time data and reliable projections.&nbsp;“[They need to] know how much of that supply exists. What the supply risks are, and what the demand is going to be” Menker said. “[Without that information] how do you actually systematically price that risk, not just for tomorrow, or for the next year, but for the next 10 to 20 years?” she asked.&nbsp;Menker believes that robust data and analytics can be a cornerstone of a global agrifood system transition that decarbonizes as it improves food security. Data and analytics that are methodically rooted in science can become the infrastructure that facilitates risk management, risk sharing, and risk transfer, and in this way, data and analytics can enable different stakeholders - banks, companies, and governments - to play their role, she explained. Bringing these stakeholders and forces together can spur a transition, while helping to address global food insecurity, she said.&nbsp;Between 2019 and 2022, the number of people facing acute hunger soared 155% to 345 million worldwide. Currently, 49 million people in 49 different countries are on the edge of famine.&nbsp;Even though food price inflation is cooling globally, food security must remain top of mind for world leaders, as the fallout from the last three years’ high inflation lingers, Menker said as the panel discussion concluded.&nbsp;&nbsp;To learn more about the tools that Gro has developed to help users track the growing conditions of crops that are not traded on global exchanges or to schedule a demo of the Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, please reach out to our sales team at <a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a>.&nbsp;

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From Davos: Gro’s CEO Discusses Food Security and the Food System Transition 

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