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The atmospheric river storm descending on California will likely worsen existing produce supply gaps into this spring, pushing already elevated retail prices for produce aisle staples like <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBXPyq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lettuce, broccoli</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57XvER0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">strawberries</a> higher.&nbsp;California’s produce industry has been battered by erratic weather since early last fall, as we wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/extreme-weather-is-fueling-produce-prices-and-us-food-price-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/waterlogged-acres-and-planting-delays-california-faces-major-fruit-veg-losses" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, but this latest bout of extreme precipitation is particularly problematic because it is arriving just before winter growing seasons in Florida, Mexico, and Arizona wind down and as California’s produce growing season ramps up.&nbsp;By early April, California takes over as the US’ primary strawberry source, producing about 188 million pounds of strawberries in April before hitting a monthly production peak of around 267 million pounds in late May on average over the last five years. During the first week of March, the state shipped only 2.3 million pounds of strawberries, about 19% of its usual haul for that week based on the 10-year average.&nbsp;At a minimum, this storm could cause delays for California’s strawberry harvest in Oxnard, the state’s biggest strawberry producing area for this time of year, but it could also damage existing crops and flood fields in Santa Maria and Salinas, setting back new plantings.&nbsp;The procession of atmospheric rivers that pummeled the state in late December through mid-January swamped fields, leading to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Ddxowm692" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">record low shipped strawberry volumes</a> in January.&nbsp;By February, California’s shipped strawberry volumes rebounded to the 10-year average before dropping 65% last week after late February rains. In February, Florida’s strawberry crop was able to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBDxEqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">compensate for California’s production declines</a>, but Florida’s strawberry season wraps up this month. Mexico’s strawberry production, which is past its peak, drops off after April.&nbsp;&nbsp;Often during seasonal crop transitions, US produce markets face a higher risk of price increases and supply disruptions.&nbsp;Heading into this spring, lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower, and other leafy greens grown in Yuma, Arizona, are vulnerable to seasonal, transition-related supply gaps. In early April, as temperatures in Yuma rise, the area’s growing season for these crops draws to a close, and producers begin to move their crops and related machinery and equipment to Salinas, California, where temperatures tend to be favorable through the fall. A similar seasonal transition takes place in November, when producers move from Salinas to Yuma for warmer winter growing conditions.&nbsp;This winter, however, Yuma experienced <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYojl9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">consistently cool weather</a> that suppressed production volumes, particularly for lettuce. The Yuma season’s low lettuce production means that there is little supply to fall back on after this latest atmospheric river storm.&nbsp;The storm, which is forecast to dump two to three inches of rain in Monterey County, could complicate producers’ transition and Salinas Valley planting plans, further straining lettuce supplies at a time of year when demand for salad usually picks up. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAjg3QR4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lettuce shipping point prices</a> are not yet reflecting these looming supply constraints, in part because demand for lettuce is currently low.&nbsp;Typically, California’s Salinas Valley is responsible for about 80% of the US’ vegetable production from April to early July.&nbsp;

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Atmospheric River Storm to Aggravate US Produce Supply Woes

Months of severe drought conditions across Argentina’s soybean and corn growing areas forced the USDA to slash its production estimates for a third consecutive month and closely align with what Gro has been predicting since the start of the growing season in December.&nbsp;In its March WASDE report, the USDA cut its production estimates for Argentina soybeans by 20% from the agency’s February projections and its corn output figures by 15%. Since December, the USDA has slashed Argentina’s production outlook by 27% for corn and by 33% for soybeans.&nbsp;Gro’s Argentina Yield Forecast Models have for months signaled <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW787BdD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQm0g9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean</a> production would be sharply lower than USDA estimates. Argentina is the world's largest soybean meal exporter and second-largest corn exporting country.Gro’s vegetative health index for Argentina’s soybean crop is the lowest for this century, while the Gro Drought Index is close to a two-decade high, as shown in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1010,Argentina$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Soybeans%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a> from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. Growing conditions for Argentina’s corn crop are equally challenging, as shown in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1010,Argentina$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a>.&nbsp;Argentina’s weak soybean production helped pull down USDA estimates for 2022/23 global soybean ending stocks by 2% from its February projection. Helping to offset Argentina’s weak output is an expected bumper soybean crop in Brazil, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. The USDA left unchanged its estimates for Brazil’s soybean and corn production.&nbsp;Gro users can monitor Brazil’s growing conditions and changes to its estimated balance sheet through Gro’s<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQvQA9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Brazil Corn Monitor</a> and<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/bR7EZE4dN" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Brazil Soybean Monitor</a>.For the US, the USDA lowered its estimates for soybean ending stocks to a seven-year low as exports were revised slightly higher. US soybean exports have outpaced historical trends since last fall, as shown in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1ZyZ1RW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>. By contrast, US corn exports have been sluggish for months, and the USDA reduced its export estimates by 4%.&nbsp;Gro’s<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7E7ldo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> US Soybean Monitor </a>and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYoY79A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US Corn Monitor</a> contain supply and demand balance sheets for the two commodities. They also display crop yield forecasts and growing conditions once the season gets underway.

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USDA Again Cuts Argentina Soybean, Corn Outlook in Line With Gro Predictions

US acres earmarked to soybeans will shrink to a four-year low this spring as growers plant more acres to corn and wheat, according to Gro’s Planting Intentions Models’ estimates.&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-planting-intentions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models</a> for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, which generate acreage forecasts starting in February, provide users insight into expected planting mixes three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is released on March 31.Another big drop in soybean acreage occurred in 2019, following extensive flooding in the Midwest, which contributed to a 15% drop in US soybean production from the five-year average at that time.Heading into this year’s US planting season, growers are likely to forgo planting soybeans because commodity futures prices are signaling that planting corn and wheat will be more profitable.&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/XaLTMcLvMlVUUfAbGtW6H9qi_4RExOkl3KTVzKItDukwRknDvT1-CvkEm51s9Qb1hW1VoHEPjE5xBB9iUr4C4i9e7znYquB4rz2DdBo0FuUGxWt896NXdOVP9zRGU18Bec7orCt_H7FV66AzuIjNzno"><figcaption>The chart above shows how the price ratio between soybeans, priced on the November 2023 contract, and corn, on the December 2023 contract, has ebbed and flowed well below the 20-year average for February. The year’s trend makes corn a more appealing crop to plant compared to soybeans.</figcaption></figure>At its current level, our Planting Intentions Model for Soybeans’ projected contraction in planted acres would further squeeze the US’ soybeans stocks-to-use level, a measure of available supplies, which is already at its tightest level since 2015/16, as shown by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGQKzlRZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Soybean Monitor</a>.&nbsp;However, Brazil’s expected record soybean crop, which is currently being harvested, could reduce the need for US soybean exports in the upcoming marketing year, helping to offset the strain on US supplies. Brazil’s bumper crop is also expected to offset losses from Argentina’s drought-stricken soybean area, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Currently, Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model is forecasting a double-digit year-over-year increase in Brazilian <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRLeMvw9p" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean production</a>.Gro’s Planting Intentions Models also forecast a big jump in corn acreage, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/blog/gro-s-2023-us-planting-intentions-forecasts-are-coming-in-heavily-favoring-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Cotton planted area is <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-cotton-planted-acres-to-shrink-unseated-by-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forecast to shrink</a>. Meanwhile, Gro’s spring wheat planting model shows a nominal increase year-over-year, which, combined with an 11% leap in<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPP04Gd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> winter wheat area</a>, points to an overall jump in total wheat area.Wheat production, though, is expected to suffer due to prolonged drought conditions in key growing states, according to Gro’s <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Winter%20Wheat%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> weighted to US winter wheat area. Soil moisture readings for wheat area are near the lowest levels since 2010.&nbsp;

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US Soybean Acreage to Shrink to a Four-Year Low, Gro Predicts 

Gro Intelligence has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro's data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through artificial intelligence, generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;In this report, we focus on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Models for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton.&nbsp;You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September. Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September for the last four years.</li><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s suite of machine-learning models provide an unprecedented combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates to enable our customers to move ahead of the market.</li></ul>Download the 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models?utm_campaign=End%20of%20the%20Year%20Report%20-%20January%202023&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz--DAawbx4JnPmIhs6GrNfist1fGwSINeh_jnpFQ9_1aaJrTOxCIMEY1Xq-DyHJPXbhZ9TUpn5frwnku07Tb0UXCk7b3NiU9gn6sw5XtheL7Ena6_aw&amp;utm_content=2&amp;utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.

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2022 Performance Report: Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models

In this report, we will talk about how to use growing and climate conditions in a systematic way to better anticipate impact on final yield throughout the growing season—from planting to harvest.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/incorporating-climate-into-agricultural-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here.</a>

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Incorporating Climate Into Agricultural Forecasting

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Early forecasts generated by Gro’s US Corn and US Soybean Planting Intentions Models show corn acres will substantially outnumber US acres planted to soybeans this year. Amid a general acreage expansion for both crops, the models currently show the US’ soybean-to-corn ratio at a 10-year low for this time of year.&nbsp;From the beginning of February, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton generate daily national-level projections on planted acres, along with state and regional forecasts. The Models provide users with an early insight into the upcoming US crop supplies and farmers’ input needs. Our acreage models’ final acreage forecasts are available in early March, about three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report’s release.&nbsp;Unlike the USDA’s report, which relies on farmer surveys to arrive at estimates of what farmers are expected to plant for the upcoming season, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models consider inputs ranging from the total viable farmland available to plant corn, soybeans, wheat, or cotton to the factors that change the opportunity cost between them.&nbsp;As the US is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers globally, changes in US planting intentions impact crop supply and prices worldwide. Market participants can also use the models’ state-level planting intention forecasts to predict regional demand for seeds, fertilizer, crop protection supplies, and machinery.&nbsp;Typically, high fertilizer prices favor soybean plantings over corn because soybeans require much less fertilizer than corn. Currently, fertilizer prices are elevated relative to the 10-year historical average, but this does not appear to be deterring farmers from increasing corn acreage because fertilizer prices are down by more than 40% compared with this time last year.&nbsp;In early 2022, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn and soybeans did not account for the surge in fertilizer prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. After we substantially improved these Models to incorporate fertilizer prices, our 2022 estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions came within 98% of the USDA’s 2022 report, as our latest <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/hubfs/2022%20Gro%20End%20of%20Year%20Performance.pdf">Performance Report on Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models</a> shows.In 2022, Gro’s US Wheat and US Cotton Planting Intentions Models’ acreage estimates were also within 98% of the USDA’s Prospective Planting report.&nbsp;<a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> to learn more about Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models, available with a Premium subscription. &nbsp;

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Gro’s 2023 US Planting Intentions Forecasts Are Coming In, Heavily Favoring Corn

In a time of unprecedented supply and demand shocks, early and accurate yield forecasts and planted acreage estimates are indispensable.&nbsp;Gro’s highly accurate Global Yield Forecast and Acreage Models offer a holistic view of global food supply up to 10 months in advance of final government reporting. These models are a key indicator for supply, prices, and farmer profitability and can be used to make decisions around product pricing, sourcing, trading, or policymaking.Gro’s suite of machine-learning models currently cover 80% of global production for corn, soy, and wheat. They provide an unmatched combination of accuracy, global coverage, granularity down to the district level, and daily in-season updates.&nbsp;Gro’s 2022 Models Accurately Predicted Yields and Planted Acreage Up To 10 Months Before Final Government ReportingIn our latest performance report, we look back on the performance of our Global Yield Forecast Models across corn, soy, and wheat, as well as our US Planting Intentions Model and US Prevent Plant Model for corn, soy, wheat, and cotton, in 2022.&nbsp;This is the only report currently available in the market that compares model performance against ground truth data in a comprehensive, transparent way. Our analysis shows that Gro’s models accurately predicted yields and planted acreage, averaging within 95%-98% of final government reporting up to 10 months in advance.&nbsp;Key takeaways of our 2022 report include:<ul><li>Historically, for the past seven years, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 98.3% of the USDA final January report by September (i.e., four months in advance). Our US Soybean Yield Forecast Model has been on average within 99% of the USDA’s final number by September (i.e., four months in advance) for the last four years.</li><li>This remained true during the 2022 US growing season. By September, Gro’s forecasts for corn and soy were already within 98% of the USDA’s final January reporting. Gro’s models thus provided an earlier view of final numbers, allowing customers to move ahead of the market.&nbsp;</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:84.13%;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/f1CcWiAXnVscC279rcf0_HGjcDJg_5hyCPJriq9EtDibGmgt8I6dtvgi2_sGHFt29seHLLZLMDz414zJzjtkVQpohR4fpVw78InVqQJsV6DVFhOBr1lj3OxbSMQI6vjlr9otlzt7L3ATv8PzFid-1CKbC91zENNKO8eMhZal7VvnktJ0BuBqYHVbCFp6uQ"><figcaption>During the 2022 growing season, Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model was showing yields consistently below USDA estimates starting in June, providing early insight into lower-than-expected production and potentially lower exports. The model dropped mid-season due to extreme high temperatures, recovering a bit in August as conditions improved. The forecasts stabilized in September and were already within 98% of USDA final January reporting.</figcaption></figure>&nbsp;<ul><li>In critical global regions, where the current marketplace does not have many machine learning-based predictive models, such as Ukraine, Brazil, and China, Gro’s 2022 Global Yield Forecast Models were on average 95% accurate up to 10 months ahead of final government reporting.</li><li>Gro’s US Planting Intentions Model for corn and soybeans did not initially account for the surge in fertilizer prices in early 2022. As a result, our model’s estimates, published early February, were higher than the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, published March 31, 2022. However, after we enhanced our Planting Intentions Model by incorporating fertilizer prices, our estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions showed significant improvement and were within 98% of the USDA’s March 31, 2022 report.</li></ul>The Unique Power of the Gro PlatformGro Intelligence is an AI-driven data and analytics company helping businesses, financial institutions, and governments make better decisions on food security and climate risk.Gro has over 2 million unique, proprietary data series that address a range of questions across crop yield and production, supply and demand, growing conditions, and climate scenarios. Gro’s data series are built by our team of 50+ domain experts and scaled through AI , generating predictive models and real-time applications. Our products provide accurate forecasts and holistic views into the most pressing challenges across climate, agriculture, and the economy.&nbsp;Gro’s Global Yield Forecast Models leverage high-resolution satellite data that capture every field in every district or province, not just random fields as with traditional crop survey methods, making the data more precise. Our Yield Forecast and Acreage Models are significantly more accurate, and available earlier, because of the blending of multiple unique skill sets across research and data science, comprehensive global data sources and variables, geospatial expertise, and machine and human learning.<a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">Contact our team</a> for a demo or to learn more about our predictive models.Download the full 2022 performance report <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/2022-performance-report-on-yield-forecast-and-acreage-models">here</a>.

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Get Accurate Forecasts 10 Months Ahead of Final Government Reporting

At a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel session on January 18th, Gro Intelligence’s CEO Sara Menker joined United Nations World Food Program executive director David Beasley, Bayer AG’s CEO Werner Baumann, Hanneke Faber, president of Unilever’s nutrition group, and CNBC anchor Steve Sedgwick to discuss the challenges facing global food systems, global food security, and what a credible transition to a resilient agrifood system will require.&nbsp;For the panelists taking part in the WEF’s <a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2023/sessions/innovating-for-food-security">Revolutionizing Food Security</a> discussion, private sector involvement, enabling policies that take farmer profitability into account, and a long-term game plan centered on sustainability, decarbonization, and maintaining yields are the critical components of the resilient global food system that the world needs to build.&nbsp;While that is a tall order, Gro’s CEO Sara Menker said that there is a lot that agrifood systems can learn from the global energy market transition.&nbsp;“It has taken a lot of private capital to move to the conversations that we are having today about clean energy, and the catalyst for that has been data,” Menker said.&nbsp;&nbsp;In order to get people to pay attention to food system risk, the agricultural commodity market needs to be able to articulate risks more clearly, she said. Lenders and investors need timely, granular data to measure, price, and transfer risks more effectively, she added.&nbsp;Because relatively few agricultural commodities trade on exchanges, market participants currently have very few options for managing their risks, especially medium to long-term exposures. “If you take the most liquid agricultural product in the world today, it's corn in the US. And [today] if you can sell that two years forward, it's still a miracle,” Menker said.&nbsp;Yet to make actionable and credible long-term plans that align with sustainability and decarbonization objectives and feeding the world’s 8 billion people, market participants across the spectrum need real-time data and reliable projections.&nbsp;“[They need to] know how much of that supply exists. What the supply risks are, and what the demand is going to be” Menker said. “[Without that information] how do you actually systematically price that risk, not just for tomorrow, or for the next year, but for the next 10 to 20 years?” she asked.&nbsp;Menker believes that robust data and analytics can be a cornerstone of a global agrifood system transition that decarbonizes as it improves food security. Data and analytics that are methodically rooted in science can become the infrastructure that facilitates risk management, risk sharing, and risk transfer, and in this way, data and analytics can enable different stakeholders - banks, companies, and governments - to play their role, she explained. Bringing these stakeholders and forces together can spur a transition, while helping to address global food insecurity, she said.&nbsp;Between 2019 and 2022, the number of people facing acute hunger soared 155% to 345 million worldwide. Currently, 49 million people in 49 different countries are on the edge of famine.&nbsp;Even though food price inflation is cooling globally, food security must remain top of mind for world leaders, as the fallout from the last three years’ high inflation lingers, Menker said as the panel discussion concluded.&nbsp;&nbsp;To learn more about the tools that Gro has developed to help users track the growing conditions of crops that are not traded on global exchanges or to schedule a demo of the Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, please reach out to our sales team at <a href="mailto:sales@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a>.&nbsp;

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From Davos: Gro’s CEO Discusses Food Security and the Food System Transition 

Gro Intelligence has attained Service Organizational Control (SOC) 2 Type II compliance, in accordance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountant (AICPA) standards for software as service (SaaS) providers.&nbsp;A SOC 2 Type II designation means that Gro’s systems and processes adhere to the highest levels of data security for all users.&nbsp;Just as we hold our software vendors to the highest security standards, the <a href="https://www.aicpa.org/topic/audit-assurance/audit-and-assurance-greater-than-soc-2#:~:text=A%20SOC%202%20examination%20is,integrity%2C%20confidentiality%2C%20or%20privacy">SOC 2 Type II certification</a> demonstrates our steadfast commitment to protecting the confidentiality, integrity, availability, and privacy of our customer's data. Interest in achieving the AICPA’s SOC 2 Type II certification has been skyrocketing in recent years as incidences of third-party data breaches have soared.&nbsp;About Gro: Gro Intelligence is a data and analytics company that has built one of the world’s most comprehensive agriculture-related data platforms. We use our technology to harvest, translate, and transform approximately 40 million unique data sets and nearly 500 trillion data points across multiple types of data and crop types on a global basis. Gro has also built a suite of machine-learning-based predictive models allowing users to have access to an unprecedented number of data sets and forecasts for production, consumption, trade, and climate globally.&nbsp;For more information on Gro’s SOC 2 Type II designation, please reach out to us at&nbsp; intel<a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">@gro-intelligence.com</a>.&nbsp;

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Gro Reinforces Data Security With SOC 2 Type II Certification

Fertilizer shortages brought on by high prices and tight supplies are continuing to threaten global agricultural production.&nbsp;Gro Intelligence's Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor, launched earlier this year, is the first tool to help quantify the potential impact on global production of major crops from reduced applications of nitrogen fertilizer under different scenarios in a fully transparent way.&nbsp;Now Gro has incorporated the latest scenarios from November 2022 from our partners — the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), an association which represents providers of plant nutrition solutions, and CRU Group (CRU), a leading independent authority on fertilizer.The Monitor, which Gro built with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, is free for anyone to use and can be found <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Overall, the updates from IFA and CRU project that the global fertilizer crisis resulted in even lower rates of nitrogen fertilization applications worldwide in 2022 than was previously estimated.&nbsp;Latest Updates: What Does the Data Tell Us?The monitor originally launched in July 2022 with three scenarios from IFA — “optimistic,” “pessimistic,” and “middle ground.” But IFA in November consolidated its estimates into a single scenario, which projects larger cuts in 2022 global nitrogen fertilizer use than even its “pessimistic” scenario from July. CRU Group’s updated estimates also point to larger declines in nitrogen use than the group previously projected.Gro modeled the impact on crop yield based on the various fertilizer application scenarios to arrive at production estimates for a given country and crop. The production for four major crops — wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans — is then converted into calories and combined to highlight the impact on food supplies from reduced fertilizer usage. Gro’s production estimates are based solely on the usage scenarios for nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and don’t take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. See more on our methodology <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/methodology">here</a>.Overall, the updates on fertilizer usage from both IFA and CRU show increasingly large effects of a crisis still unfolding. Key takeaways include:&nbsp;<ul><li>Under the new IFA scenario, Gro calculates a total worldwide reduction of 216 trillion calories, while the CRU scenario points to a 143 trillion calorie reduction. The IFA scenario shows reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use will trim calorie production by at least 5% in&nbsp; 42 countries (mainly in Central and Southern America, Southeast Asia, and Africa) while CRU’s fertilizer use figures point to a greater-than-5% cut in calorie production in 10 countries (mainly in Africa).</li><li>The average of the IFA and CRU scenarios is now worse than the “pessimistic” scenario from IFA in July 2022.</li><li>The largest calorie losses under both organizations’ scenarios are in Ukraine.</li><li>CRU’s scenario points to a calorie increase in China, while IFA has cut calories in China. IFA also indicates much worse impact in Vietnam, Argentina, and India than does CRU.</li><li>Both the CRU and IFA estimates indicate that production of all four of the major crops (corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans) will be dragged down by cuts in nitrogen fertilizer use in 2022. In USDA PS&amp;D data back to 1965, there have been no years in which production of all four crops dropped in the same year, and only eight years in which three of the crops’ production fell. In addition, only three years going back to 1965 saw such significant declines in corn, rice, and wheat at the same time.</li><li>In both the CRU and IFA scenarios, wheat production will be impacted the most (down ~2.5% worldwide), followed by corn (~2.3% reduction). Rice production will be down ~1.5% and soybeans down ~0.2%. The projected production declines are based solely on anticipated reductions in nitrogen fertilizer use and don’t take into account other factors such as weather.</li></ul>The global distribution of the projected outcomes, compared with the IFA and CRU estimates from July 2022, varies by country and crop. For example:<ul><li>For the US — the global leader in corn production — Gro estimates nitrogen fertilizer use cuts based on CRU’s updated scenario will further reduce corn production compared with July estimates by an additional 3.5 percentage points. Using IFA’s updated scenario, Gro’s new corn production estimates have decreased only by 0.34 percentage points compared to their previous “middle ground” scenario.&nbsp;</li><li>In much of Europe, IFA’s updated figures point to a doubling of the decrease in calorie production when compared to the association’s previous “middle ground” estimates. In France, fertilizer use cuts now point to a 4.6% decline in calorie production compared to the 2.1% cut indicated earlier this year.</li><li>For Brazil, IFA's newest scenario points to a calorie reduction from key principal crops compared to July “middle ground” estimates, which projected a calorie gain. CRU's updated estimates now point to an even steeper caloric reduction for Brazil compared to their estimates in July.</li></ul>These fertilizer application scenarios from IFA and CRU are based on usage exclusively of nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and do not take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. However, Gro’s in-season Yield Forecast Models account for these variables. Go to the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/about-outputs">About Outputs</a> page within the Monitor to see the difference.&nbsp;We welcome feedback and additional data to continue to improve the Fertilizer Impact Monitor and build on the work that we have done. Visit the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Please reach out to <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> with any questions or to learn more about our platform.

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Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor: Updated Scenarios Project Larger Cuts in 2022 Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Use

Heading into 2023, the global food system is facing availability and affordability crises that have been spurred by supply chain challenges, climate disruptions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a related nitrogen fertilizer squeeze. Just the nitrogen fertilizer problem alone is going to lead to a reduction of 216 trillion calories around the world, according to a Gro Intelligence analysis.“The lack of fertilizer is the most terrifying challenge ahead of us for the next two years,” Sara Menker, CEO of Gro Intelligence said when she sat down with Guy Raz, the host of NPR’s “How I Built This” to discuss why she set up the agricultural and climate change data and analytics company, Gro Intelligence.&nbsp;Listen to a full recording of their conversation, which aired on December 8th, on <a href="https://one.npr.org/?sharedMediaId=1141497910:1141497912" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">NPR One</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hibt-lab-gro-intelligence-sara-menker/id1150510297?i=1000588226962" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a href="https://wondery.com/shows/how-i-built-this/episode/10386-hibt-lab-gro-intelligence-sara-menker/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wondery</a> or <a href="https://www.audible.com/pd/HIBT-Lab-Gro-Intelligence-Sara-Menker-Podcast/B0BPLRNJ8G?ref=a_pd_How-I-_c3_lAsin_0_1&amp;pf_rd_p=625c212d-b95a-47db-8d56-d35a359de6e9&amp;pf_rd_r=ER0G9PR7PSV9VK6NBW15" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Audible</a>.&nbsp;The Seed of an Idea: Gro’s CEO on “How I Built This” with Guy Raz&nbsp;Growing up in Ethiopia in the 1980s and 1990s taught Gro Intelligence’s CEO Sara Menker not to take anything for granted. “When you are growing up and it’s not a world of abundance - when it’s a world of limited resources… It grounds you. It reminds you of what basic necessities are and what basic needs are in this life,” Menker said, explaining how her personal history took her to Wall Street and fostered her interest in building the subscription-based agricultural and climate change data and analytics company, Gro Intelligence.&nbsp;“I was attracted to [commodities trading] because it was attached to things that are physical and necessary to life,” she said.&nbsp;Amid the economic turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis, while some on Wall Street were piling into gold, Menker began looking into investing in agricultural land. “It baffled me that every time I asked questions, I got more questions. Or if I needed data, I got data that was two years old,” she said. “I remember thinking, we are just not going to solve these big food security challenges… We were trying to fix a system that we didn’t even understand,” she said.&nbsp;By 2012, Menker left Wall Street, and after two years of research, she and Sewit Ahderom launched Gro Intelligence, a data and analytics firm that takes trillions of data points from a variety of sources and builds agricultural commodity forecasts that food suppliers, financial firms, and governments can use to navigate climate risk, understand supply models, predict demand for crops, and monitor growing conditions for crops around the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cultivating Gro&nbsp;According to Menker, the first challenge was assessing what data was available and developing a technology that can ingest that data - regardless of language or format - and standardize it. From there, the next challenge was how to use that data to develop models that can tell people something that they didn’t know. “We started with modeling in markets that everyone understood like corn in the US,” Menker explained, noting that Gro now has 28 model templates that can be scaled up through machine learning and AI in a consistent and defined way.&nbsp;“[Today, these models can forecast] everything from the demand of pork in China to the supply of sugar in Brazil… You name it,” she added. Depending on the user, the same Gro model is often used differently. While financial firms might use Gro models to trade, seed companies might use Gro’s models to understand how profitable farmers are, she explained. Governments, meanwhile, might use the models to assess the credit risk of farmers and others in the agricultural sector. In the US, Gro’s yield models are predictive and 98-99% accurate up to four to six months ahead of USDA government data. In places like India, Russia, China, and Africa, Gro’s yield models’ lead time is one to two years in advance of official government releases.It’s About Resilience&nbsp;Heading into 2023, the global food system is facing availability and affordability crises that have been spurred by supply chain challenges, climate disruptions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a related nitrogen fertilizer squeeze.&nbsp;“How do you plan for this so it’s not an absolute catastrophe when it happens,” Menker said, referring to the fertilizer crunch. The same is true for the climate crisis, however.To help farmers, businesses, and governments around the world deal with the climate challenges, Gro has built a suite of climate indices covering specific risks - from drought to floods to fires and heat stress - that help users understand how weather translates into climate impacts in real time and in the future.&nbsp;With this information, users can mitigate risks, Menker noted. Gro’s forward-looking climate models can help users understand the trajectory of the various climate perils that growing regions or corporate assets are up against around the world at the district (county) level.&nbsp;For major food or agricultural companies some of the biggest risks that they face are around procuring food and figuring out where to invest in a shifting climate.&nbsp;&nbsp;“Are the areas that grow food today going to be the most suitable for growing [the same food] tomorrow? And where will [growing areas] be in five, 10, 15, or 20 years from now? You would be surprised at how much [growing] areas are going to have to shift based on different climate [change] scenarios,” Menker said.&nbsp;Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak with a member of our team or to get a demonstration of our platform.&nbsp;

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Gro’s CEO on “How I Built This” with Guy Raz 

Gro Intellgence’s CEO Sara Menker joined Cargill’s CEO David MacLennan, Anastasia Volkova, CEO of Regrow Ag, and Bloomberg’s Shery Ahn in Singapore last month for a panel discussion on <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-11-16/action-planning-for-the-global-food-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Action-Planning for the Global Food Crisis</a>. As the world relies on an interconnected food system in order to have availability, accessibility, and price stability, optimizing the global food system for resilient production is key to addressing food insecurity today and averting food crises tomorrow, the panelists said.&nbsp;Globalization is changing in front of our eyes, and that includes changes to the global food system, Menker said at the event.&nbsp;“[Yet, the global] food system is one of the hardest things to deglobalize because, outside of the US, there are not that many countries that can produce 100% of their supply chain,” she added.&nbsp;This fact, and the ongoing climate crisis, suggest that the world needs a new action plan to address today’s global food crisis.&nbsp;“We are not on the verge of a food crisis. We are already in one,” Menker said, noting that structural demand changes that began two to three years ago set the stage for today’s global food crisis. Unprecedented supplyside disruptions, including the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, worsened an already deteriorating global food security outlook, she added.&nbsp;Action plans aimed at addressing current and future global food crises will need to acknowledge the food system’s reliance on trade as well as the agriculture industry’s need to reduce its carbon intensity, particularly around energy and fertilizer.&nbsp;As climate change is already impacting crops and as the industry needs to reduce its carbon emissions, regenerative agriculture - which is often defined as a way of producing food that may have lower environmental and/or social impacts - is often viewed as a way forward. Data will be critical for scaling regenerative agriculture, however.&nbsp;“[This means] defining the metrics that matter and standardizing those metrics at scale so that we are comparing apples to apples,” Menker said. Whereas metrics offer the ability to define issues and establish targets, data is critical for measuring the performance towards those targets, towards helping farmers and the global food system become more productive and more sustainable. “Data is going to be a critical component,” she added.&nbsp;

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