Gro’s US Soybean Prevent Plant Model, which launches annually at the end of April and runs until the end of June, estimates the number of acres prevented from being planted at the county and national levels in advance of the USDA FSA release. Significant prevent plant area can impact seed sales, input use, and ultimately production. It also drives insurance claims. Even when adverse environmental conditions merely delay planting, crop yields can decline and fewer inputs may be used during the growing season.
Gro's US Soybean Prevent Plant Model accurately forecasts the amount of acres prevented from being planted – coming within 99% of final government reporting – up to 6 months in advance.
Customers Use the Model to
Why It Matters
Prevent plant is an insurance contract that nearly all US farmers have. If they are unable due to weather to plant corn or soybeans by a certain date of the year, they can take an insurance pay out and not plant anything in their fields. Farmers therefore need to decide by a certain date, which varies by state, whether to plant or not plant. If there is extreme weather, a large number of farmers will take the payout and must report what they planted and what was prevented from being planted.
A decrease in supply for the US market has price moving implications globally. For example, in 2019, the first year the Gro Model launched and accurately forecasted prevent plant acres, the US Midwest experienced record flooding, which had a major impact on prices, planting decisions, and earnings, especially for seed and fertilizer companies.
US Corn Prevent Plant Forecast Model