Food Security Risk Management Toolkit: An Introduction

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The Russia-Ukraine war is unleashing unimaginable human suffering and holds huge implications for food security worldwide, including forcing governments and food manufacturing companies to seek out alternative sources of supplies. 

To help companies, investors, governments, and humanitarian organizations navigate the unprecedented impact on global agricultural markets that the Russia-Ukraine war has sparked, Gro has launched a public resources page with real-time assessments of major commodities including wheat, vegetable oils, and fertilizer, using our Food Security Risk Management Toolkit

Our toolkit consists of machine learning-based forecast models predicting yield and production in seven major wheat producing countries, accounting for more than half the world's wheat production. It also houses applications and insights across climate, agriculture, and economic datasets that help manage risks in real time by tracking production, consumption, and trade of various agricultural products in the Black Sea region, as well as other major importing and exporting regions.

Gro's toolkit includes:

  • Global Balance Sheet for Wheat - Provides supply and demand metrics across major exporting and importing regions, giving the proper context for understanding the global wheat market.
  • Wheat Yield Models for the world’s major producing regions - These models track all global wheat producers and exporters on a daily basis, including wheat-growing regions of Ukraine and Russia.
  • Custom Price Index Application  - Track inflation costs based on product inputs from sunflower oil to sugar and everything in between.
  • Price and trade data - Detailed local cash prices and export prices at major origins are key indicators of global trade dynamics and allow you to assess competitiveness among regions. Our extensive trade data tracks those flows.
  • US Crop Budget Application - Assess the impact of yield, crop price, operating costs, and input prices such as fertilizer on profitability of crops across the US.
  • Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture - Monitors daily growing conditions, weighted for specific crops and regions, to see around the corner for the impact of weather on wheat yields.
  • Crop Cover Models - Satellite image-based, pixel-level maps of where crops are grown. They are an essential component to Gro’s yield forecast models and can be used to understand the impact of weather events on crop conditions. India is an example.

Together, this toolkit allows visibility for the drivers and the conditions across production, trade, and regional availability.

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