Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model

Gro’s Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model helps users as they develop pre-season and in-season plans based on projected supply and demand balance sheets and anticipated exports of soybean products.

Argentina, the largest exporter of soybean products in the world, primarily uses its large soybean crop in the domestic crushing industry. Other soybean crush estimates, including the USDA’s, make assumptions about the balance sheet and adjust in-season, but these forecasts update with a considerable lag that can mislead supply and demand estimates. Gro’s Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model arrives at its production number quicker because it combines Gro’s yield model, which updates daily, with monthly crush data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture (MAGyP).

Customers use this model to

• Forecast soybeans crush total both ahead of the season and in-season 
• Get a breakdown of Argentina’s total soybean use 
• Arrive at more accurate futures prices by incorporating soybean crush forecasts into Gro’s Automated Balance Sheet app or into a proprietary supply and demand balance sheet

Why this Matters

The crush model forecast gives users the ground truth for forecasting crush availability,  which impacts soybean and soybean oil prices globally.

Methodology

This model produces an estimate for annual Argentina soybean crushing before the start of the marketing year and throughout the season incorporating monthly local crush data. The model has been back tested against USDA and MAGyP,  the ground truth soybean crush values.

Related Resources

Balance sheet Project - Argentina Soybeans

Forecast for Continued Dryness Puts Argentina Soy Production at Risk

Global Soybean Demand Display