What We're Watching This Week - June 12, 2017

CLIMATE-TRADE

Canadian Prairies Dry Up:

The Dakotas aren’t the only trouble spot for spring wheat in North America. Dry soil conditions in the Canadian Prairies are threatening recently planted spring wheat and canola across the region. Precipitation across southern Saskatchewan, the top producing province for spring wheat, was 40% below normal during the past month. On the other hand, excess rainfall has led to planting delays in other parts of the Canadian prairies. This may compound matters for Canadian spring wheat, as growers in these areas decide to plant shorter-season crops such as barley and oats. We recommend that wheat traders monitor daily precipitation in Gro.

CLIMATE-COMMODITIES

Wheat in W. Australia Could Get Scorched:

May evapotranspiration anomalies and limited precipitation since late April is worrying growers in Australia’s wheat belt. Given that emergence is right around the corner, the dry spell couldn’t have come at a worse time. What’s more, the country’s production forecast of 25 million metric tons was unchanged during the June WASDE. If climate conditions worsen during June, we suspect that Australian wheat prices will soar on lowered expectations. As such, we suggest that agribusiness and food companies in the Asian-Pacific region keep a close watch on weekly export prices from the port of Fremantle.

FOOD-BEVERAGE

Colombia’s Mitaca Harvest Enters Final Stretch:

Colombia’s main crop production has pushed the country’s coffee exports higher year-over-year by 10.3% in the first six months of the 2016/17 coffee year. As a result, arabica coffee prices have headed lower in 2017. Yet, Colombia’s mitaca (smaller crop) coffee crop has been delayed, due to a recent strike at the port of Buenaventura and heavy rainfall in the mountainous growing regions. Importers of mild arabica blends saw the price gap between Colombian and Other milds narrow. As Colombia enters the end of the mitaca harvest, we encourage coffee importers to track the price spread of milds in Gro.