What We're Watching This Week - June 05, 2017

CLIMATE-WEATHER

Indian Monsoon Season Arrives Early:

The Southwest Monsoon arrived ahead of schedule in the state of Kerala and is moving northward. More importantly, rainfall should intensify during June and July. This is good news for kharif growers across parts of Central India where rainfall deficits have surfaced in recent months. Given that India is a top global producer of cotton and sugar and futures have dropped sharply, these crops are top of mind. We recommend that traders use Gro to watch daily rainfall across the state of Maharashtra, one of India’s top cotton and sugarcane producers, as the monsoon should arrive in the state soon.

COMMODITIES

Sunflower Planting Jumps Ahead in Ukraine:

Ukraine’s sunflower growers have already blown by the government’s projection of area planted this season. Yet, Ukraine, the world’s largest producer of sunflower seeds, is expected to see a slight production drop from last season. Improved agronomic practices have already doubled the country’s sunflower seed yields, which means climate will likely play a larger role in this season’s potential. Given that two major agribusineses are expanding softseed (rapeseed/sunflower seed) processing capacity in the country, we encourage investors to closely monitor trouble spots in the Sumy, Poltava, and Kharkiv oblasts.

CROP INPUT

More US Rainfall Could Bring Higher Fungicide Sales:

The outlook is drier for the Corn Belt this week, but that could change soon. NOAA increased the probability of above normal precipitation across parts of the region during June. This is cause for concern among farmers because of the higher risk of fungal diseases after prolonged rainfall. In fact, we found that growers in Illinois applied roughly double the amount of fungicides to corn acres than Indiana farmers in 2014. We suspect that it was no coincidence that cumulative rainfall in Illinois during June 2014 was nearly 60% higher than accumulated rainfall in Indiana. We suggest Ag retailers keep a close eye on cumulative precip and soil temps across the US Corn Belt.