What We're Watching This Week - March 27, 2017

FARMING

Farmer Surveys Call For More Beans Than USDA:

Given that corn and soybean futures have moved by double digits (cents per bushel) on eight out of the last ten USDA Prospective Plantings surveys, we will be watching the release of the 2017 installment on Friday. Doane/Profarmer and Allendale issued their producer-level surveys this past week. Both reports suggest that soybean plantings by US farmers will exceed the USDA’s initial forecast of 88 mln acres. Growers in the Doane/Profarmer survey were more optimistic with 89.3 mln acres being allocated to beans while the Allendale survey offered a more conservative forecast of 88.8 mln acres. On a regional basis, prevent planting intentions in the Great Plains, corn acreage in Texas, and rotation plans in the Corn Belt will likely play a role in deciding the acreage split between corn and soybeans in 2017.

FOOD-TRADE POLICY

Russian Trade Spat Adds to Turkey’s Food Inflation:

Russia shows no intention of patching up its current agriculture trade rift with Turkey, despite its oilseed and grain exporters suffering in the process, according to Bloomberg. In fact, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Russia estimates the country’s sunflower processing industry may face greater losses than wheat exporters. Since Turkey has been a key destination for Russian exports, rival producers, such as Ukraine and the EU-28, will likely benefit from the trade dispute. More importantly, Turkey’s consumers are left facing the harsh reality of higher food inflation.

COMMODITIES

Honduras Coffee Exports Continue to Rebound:

Despite general Central American difficulty recovering from the recent coffee rust (roya) outbreak, Honduras continues to get its arabica back on. Coffee exports spiked 36% year-over-year in February, according to Honduras’ national coffee institute. In fact, the country is projected to increase export shipments by 41% to 7.2 million bags in the 2016-17 harvest season. We will be keeping an eye on the March export report, especially with production in Brazil expected to be lower this season.