What We're Watching This Week - Feb. 27, 2017

COMMODITIES-TRADE

Will Indian Wheat Production Fall Short?

With India’s wheat harvest right around the corner, we will be monitoring vegetative conditions in the country’s main wheat production region with Gro. Although the government projects a record wheat harvest of 96.6 million tons, industry analysts surveyed by Bloomberg peg production at only 91 million tons. This lends to market speculation that India will have to import over 2 million tons of wheat in the 2017-18 marketing season–the second highest level in a decade. Given that 2017 Indian demand has been a bright spot so far, exporters are also closely watching to see whether India will reinstate an import duty on wheat in the coming months.

FARMING

Global Demand Supports Higher US Cotton Acreage:

USDA expects US cotton plantings to rise to a four-year high this spring. Given that Chinese imports of cotton are anticipated to jump by roughly 10% from the prior season, US growers have good reason to allocate more acreage to cotton. What’s more, global ending stocks of cotton are projected to decline by 6 million bales in the 2017-18 marketing season. We will be watching with interest on Wednesday to see if January US cottonseed crushing data reinforces the recent uptrend in US monthly output.

CLIMATE-WEATHER

Fruit Growers in Colorado Are Looking Past Warm Spell:

After an unseasonably warm February, the National Weather Service is alerting fruit growers in Colorado’s Grand Valley to the potential for an imminent cold snap. Local farm reports indicate the budding of cherries and apricots has occurred with peaches not far behind. Therein lies the risk. The early seasonal start could expose these crops to frost risk in the coming weeks. While Colorado isn’t a top producer of these fruit crops in the US, we remain cognizant that agriculture is ultimately a local story. As such, we will be keeping an eye on daily temperature readings in Gro this week.