What We're Watching This Week - Feb. 13, 2017

CLIMATE-WEATHER

Southern Tanzania Sees “Some Relief” from Recent Rains:

Tanzania experiences two rainfall systems: a bi-modal (October–December and March–May) pattern stretching east from Lake Victoria to the coast and a uni-modal (October–April) one everywhere else. The market knows that Tanzania has been facing a severe drought like other East African countries. In fact, the latest ETa (Evapotranspiration Anomalies) reading in Gro for the country shows that conditions remain challenging. In the past few weeks, the southern region has seen some relief as rainfall has picked up. We’ll be watching the data to see whether this translates into meaningful relief for crops.

FOOD-TRADE

Global Buyers Are Ready to Shell More Chilean Walnuts:

USDA is scheduled to refresh its global outlook for tree nuts on Friday. The new Top-5 feature in Gro shows that recent global trends remain intact. At the same time, production is diverging between two of the world’s top producers of walnuts this season. Production in Ukraine is lower, while Chile’s annual production is forecast to soar by over 20%. In fact, the Chilean Walnut Commission reported this week that climate conditions have been very supportive for the country’s March to May walnut harvest. China faces a growing walnut deficit and the EU-28 expects lower supply from Eastern Europe. It makes sense to keep an eye on the USDA’s outlook for Chile's production this week.

FARMING

USDA Poised to Shed Light on Acreage Projections:

On Thursday, USDA is scheduled to release its 10-year agricultural projections, including planted acreage and acreage maintained under the conservation reserve program (CRP). The prospective plantings survey released at the end of March holds more weight for setting a baseline expectation for spring planting activity. But the long term agricultural projections report is still a valuable insight, even for the 2017 planting season. It’s difficult to narrow down the list of the many variables that will ultimately go into deciding spring planting, but focusing on the current set of economic incentives is a good start.