What We're Watching This Week - Jan. 23, 2017

TRADE POLICY

Can US Corn Exports Defy "Trumped-Up" Economics? 

With the Trump Cabinet signaling early action on trade, we will be closely watching to see how the new administration’s campaign rhetoric translates into systematic trade and economic policy for the agriculture sector. Barring an outright trade war, Mexico will remain a contender as America’s top export market for corn. In fact, the head of one of Mexico’s largest corn farmer associations (CNPAMM) has predicted that the country’s imports of US corn during the 2017-2018 marketing year could increase by roughly 20% YOY. Even with an overhaul of NAFTA, a relatively greater cost of production for Mexican corn farmers is likely to keep domestic prices in the country too high to compete with the price of imported US corn. We turned to Gro to assess how US corn exports to Mexico have boomed since NAFTA was signed into law on Dec. 8, 1993.

COMMODITIES

Maize Plantings In South Africa Poised To Rise Again:

Following last year’s drought, growers in South Africa are looking to recover lost ground. On Thursday, South Africa will publish its initial estimate of planted corn area for the season. According to a Reuters survey, growers are expected to have lifted planted acreage by 34% to 6.4 million acres. In addition the planting estimate, we will also be closely monitoring daily precipitation in the country’s top producing provinces and local spot prices of corn in the coming weeks.

FOOD-BEVERAGE

USDA’s Global Citrus Outlook Will Refine Trade Flows:

On Wednesday, the USDA is poised to release its first outlook in 2017 for the global citrus trade. Since many global production problems (e.g. orange production in Brazil) have been telegraphed, we will be more focused on the magnitude of the department’s adjustments to Chinese production, which is expected to be higher in most categories. Given the meaningful shifts in global production in the past year, we will also be monitoring our global trade flow matrix in Gro for any major shifts in export and import share by country.