What We're Watching This Week - Jan. 09, 2017

COMMODITIES 

USDA Grain Stocks Report Likely to Point to Growing Off-Farm Stocks: 

The USDA is scheduled to release its December 1 Grain Stocks report on Thursday, Jan. 12. Reuters’ trader survey calls for US corn, wheat, and soybean stocks of 12.32 billion, 2.95 billion, and 2.06 billion bushels, respectively. If correct, this would imply a roughly 10% increase in stock levels from last December, mainly driven by a larger corn and wheat carry-in in 2016. Since a ballooning of US grain stocks has been well telegraphed in recent months, we will be focusing more closely on the ratio of on-farm to off-farm stock levels and its implication for commercial storage rates.

CLIMATE-WEATHER

A Cold Blast Could Put Winter Wheat at Risk in Ukraine:

UkAgroConsult, a leading Black Sea-focused crop consultancy, has identified the possibility that single digit temperatures (Fahrenheit) could hit the country’s winter wheat crop in the coming week. They note that “the current level of snow cover is insufficient for reliable protection of winter crops against frosts harsher than 5°F during five days.” A serious risk is apparent although assessing the full extent of damage to winter wheat is always difficult. We will be using Gro to monitor daily land surface temperatures across Ukraine during the next week.

Note: No data may be a result of persistent cloud coverage. While Poltava is the not top winter wheat producing area in the country, it was selected as a timely example of recent temperature drops.

TRADE

All Calm Again on the Ivory Coast:

Over the weekend, BBC News reported that the Ivorian government has reached a deal with mutinous soldiers, who were demanding bonuses and better working conditions. After some initial market clamor reminiscent of the country’s political upheaval in 2011, cocoa futures settled down as the capital of Abidjan and the port of San Pedro remained free of any major unrest. We will be watching for confirmation this week that the government has successfully pacified the Ivorian military.