USDA Report and Yield Model Summary:
USDA issued its September WASDE report last Tuesday, and the market’s immediate reaction was to sell off steeply. Estimated yield for corn rose from 169.5 bushels/acre to 169.9 bushels/acre. The trade consensus as reported by Reuters was for a decline to 168.2, so the report wrong-footed the crowd. In soybean markets, a similar process played out, with traders expecting a decline from 49.2 bu/ac to 48.8, but getting smacked instead with an increase to 49.9. The corn and bean pits fed off each others’ bearishness, leading to some fairly steep declines on the day. It’s worth noting that the Gro US Corn Yield Model has remained bearish for several weeks relative to the USDA and may have helped some to avoid or profit from Tuesday’s washout. We advise traders to keep at least one eye on Gro’s yield model.
Wheat Crop Size Rising in Australia:
Timely rain and good soil moisture have prompted the Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics, and Rural Sciences (ABARES) to raise their 2017/18 wheat crop estimate by 1% to 24.19 million tonnes. The high protein varieties concentrated on the country’s East Coast have benefited from the favorable weather more than the lower-quality grain in the west. As we progress into harvest season, those interested in wheat should watch Gro’s satellite-derived crop data to anticipate Australian export availability.
Hurricane Irma's damage to Florida Crops:
Hurricane Irma had less impact than many apocalyptic forecasts expected, but the storm still dealt out some significant damage to citrus crops in Florida. The state produces most of the US’s citrus crop. As the damage assessment continues, with anecdotes of fruit on the ground and destroyed trees, frozen concentrated orange juice prices have risen cautiously from multiyear lows. Watch Gro’s coverage of the orange crop as the level of damage becomes clearer.