The USDA Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) updated US corn planted acres estimate, released Wednesday, is now in line with Gro’s mid-March projection, highlighting our machine-learning models’ ability to predict government indicators.
Almost six months ago Gro’s machine learning-based Planting Intentions Model forecasted corn plantings at 93.1 million acres, and the USDA FSA’s new number now suggests USDA NASS corn plantings at 94.2 million acres (range of 93.4-95.5 million).
This new USDA FSA estimate also reinforces a bearish pattern for US corn; recent late season rains in the Western Corn Belt, Northern Plains, and central Midwest have likely boosted row crop yields. Gro’s US Corn and Soybean Yield Forecast Models have both increased 1% since mid-August.
The USDA FSA starts publicly releasing its monthly planted acreage reports, which are based on summaries of farmers’ reports, in August. The data in USDA FSA’s final planted acres report, published in January, represents a complete census of acreage enrolled in FSA-administered farm programs and prevented plant acreage.
Even though USDA FSA acreage data represents the final word on US planted acreage, its data does not function as the “official” USDA planted acreage estimate because some US farms are not enrolled in FSA-administered farm programs. The official US planted acreage estimate is reported in the Crop Production Report put out by NASS, a different USDA agency.
US corn planted and failed acres, as reported by FSA, represent 96.8% (10-year average) of the USDA’s NASS final planted acreage; for US soybeans planted and failed acres, FSA data represents 94.8% of NASS’s final US soybean acreage.
The FSA’s soybean planting estimate of 86.2 million acres suggests an unchanged USDA NASS final planting estimate of 87.6 million acres (range 87.2 - 88.2 million), using the historical relationship between the two reports.
In mid-March, Gro’s Planting Intentions Model forecasted that soybean acreage at 88.6 million acres.
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