The USDA in its January WASDE report cut its forecast for 2022/23 US corn production by 200 million bushels, or 1.4%, as reduced acreage more than offset increased yields. Soybean production also was cut, by 1.6%, on lower yields.
The report pushed March corn futures to close up 2.3% on the CME, while March soybeans rose 1.7%.
The USDA finalized US corn yield estimates for the 2022/23 marketing year at 173.3 bushels per acre, marking a 4% decrease from early-season trend yield estimates and in line with the rate of deterioration captured by Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model.
Gro’s machine-learning corn yield model, which updated daily during the growing season, wrapped up in September with a final figure that was within 2% of the USDA’s own final number, reported in the January WASDE. Our model’s estimates captured problems hurting yields at the season’s outset, including delayed planting stemming from a wet start to the spring.
The USDA also finalized US soybean yield at 49.5 bushels per acre for 2022/23, a near 4% slump from the agency’s initial projections. Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model, which continued to show yields below USDA estimates throughout the season, arrived at a final estimate in September that was within 1.3% of the USDA’s final soybean yield figure reported in January.
Gro subscribers can access national- and district-level corn and soybean yield forecasts in our combined US Corn & Soybean Yield Model display, which updates daily throughout the growing season. Users can track yield changes in major growing states down to county-level figures.
The USDA’s January WASDE report is one of the agency’s most consequential reports, as it contains final US numbers for the past season and projections for the current Southern Hemisphere season.
The USDA slightly lowered projections for ending corn stocks from last month’s estimates as changes in supply and demand figures nearly offset each other. The agency forecast reduced consumption due lower exports, as well as cuts to feed demand and industrial consumption. Soybean exports also were lowered on reduced demand from China.
In South America, the USDA trimmed Argentine soybean yield estimates for 2022/23, which refers to the local 2023/24 marketing year in Argentina, reducing production forecasts by 8% to 45.5 million tonnes. Argentina production is primed for further cuts as farmers contend with the worst drought conditions in 20 years, which Gro analyzed here.
The USDA also cut 5.4% from last month’s estimate for Argentina’s corn production, but Gro’s yield forecast indicates the agency will need to reduce this further.
In Brazil, the USDA reduced its corn production estimate and increased its soybean production estimate by small amounts. Higher soybean output in Brazil would help offset losses in Argentina’s crop.
Gro users can track and monitor corn and soybean growing conditions, supply balances and production forecasts at our Argentina corn and soybean monitors, and at our Brazil corn and soybean monitors. Gro’s machine-learning Soybean Yield Forecast Models for both Brazil and Argentina recently began generating near-real-time predictions for the 2023/24 marketing year.