US Corn Harvest Headed for Multi-Year Low, Gro Predicts

The US corn crop is in its critical pollination stage, and hot and dry conditions are weighing on yields. Gro’s model is currently signaling the US will have one of the weakest corn harvests in years. 

Current predictions by Gro’s machine-learning US Corn Yield Forecast Model are lower than the USDA’s latest national yield projections. While the Gro model predicts comparatively stronger yields in some Eastern Corn Belt states, such as Wisconsin and Illinois, this is not enough to offset steeper yield declines in parts of the Western Corn Belt, including Nebraska and Kansas. 

Overall, Gro’s forecast indicates that corn stocks in the US, the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn, will remain at some of their tightest levels in nearly a decade. With hot and dry conditions also depressing corn production in EU countries, and continued uncertainty around Ukraine grain exports, global corn supplies will decline in 2022/23 and contribute to food insecurity in many parts of the world already reeling from drought-induced crop shortfalls. 

View Gro’s US Corn Monitor here, which displays the Gro US Corn Yield Forecast Model, Gro’s corn supply and demand balance sheet, stocks-to-use ratios, and other data. 

Soil moisture levels, weighted to US corn growing areas using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, show readings at their lowest in more than a decade, particularly in the West. Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures have reduced the corn crop’s moisture profile, putting stress on yields. The success of the 2022 corn crop will depend on how widely yields diverge between areas of the Western Corn Belt and the rest of the Corn Belt. 

The GFS weather forecast for the next week, seen in the Gro Portal, turns exceptionally hot once again with above normal temperatures in portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, parts of Iowa, Kansas, and as far south as Nebraska. The Eastern Corn Belt will see more moderate temperatures, albeit still warm, along with chances of rainfall.

Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator allows you to monitor growing conditions — including temperature, precipitation, and Gro indices for drought and vegetative health — highlighted for a specific crop’s planted area at the county, state, and national levels. View a Navigator display weighted for US corn here, or schedule a demo with our sales team here to learn how Climate Risk Navigator can be tailored to your organization’s needs.

While still early in the season for soybeans, Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model also currently indicates yields will be below the latest USDA projections. August and September weather have the greatest bearing on US soybean yields. However, extended weather forecasts as the calendar flips to August is not favorable for soybean pod set and pod fill.