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Russia-Ukraine Crisis to Boost India Wheat Exports

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India is set to benefit from shifting trade in the global wheat market as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leaves a crucial source of the world’s exportable supply in a precarious position.

India’s robust wheat crop last year, the fifth consecutive bumper crop, has left Indian farmers with an ample wheat surplus, and wheat exports for 2021/22 are forecast to more than double from last year. Harvest of the current crop will begin next month, and Gro’s India Wheat Yield Forecast Model points to another record production. 

This map shows the Gro India Wheat Yield Forecast Model at the district level. Expected high yields this year, coupled with increased acreage, should result in record production.

India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, although exports can vary sharply year to year depending on production volumes. With global wheat export prices currently high, India is in a good competitive position to export to nearby markets, bridging the gap left by the Black Sea. India is forecast to export 7 million tonnes of wheat this year. By comparison, Ukraine exported about 17 million tonnes and Russia 39 million tonnes of wheat last year.  

India typically exports wheat to regional neighbors, including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates. But with Black Sea shipments facing disruptions, India this year could find additional buying interest in the big wheat-importing regions of the Middle East and North Africa, where severe drought conditions are cutting into domestic wheat production. 

India has shipped 5 million tonnes of wheat since the beginning of the current marketing year in April through December. That’s a nearly fourfold increase from the same period a year earlier. Wheat is the second-largest food grain sown in India after rice and is planted starting in late fall and harvested beginning in April, as shown by Gro’s Crop Calendar

Join Gro’s research analysts on March 24th as we dig deeper into the worldwide wheat situation, amid supply constraints out of the Black Sea and resulting shifts in trade patterns. Click here to register for Gro’s webinar “Global Wheat Outlook Amid the Russia-Ukraine Conflict.” 

-Related Insights

Impact of the Russia/Ukraine Conflict on Global Agriculture by the Numbers

Russia-Ukraine Tensions Could Spell Trouble for Mideast Wheat Imports

North Africa Wheat Imports Could Jump as Region Battles Drought


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