Prevent Plant Risk Rises for Corn, Falls for Soybeans, Gro Models Show

A big jump in prevent plant risk in the northern Plains and upper Midwest is holding back corn planting progress in the US, Gro’s model shows. 

The opposite is the case for soybeans. Gro’s Prevent Plant Model shows a sharply diminished risk since last week that soybean acres will go unplanted. US soybean planting nationwide is running at the second-quickest pace in the past five years. 

Prevent plant risk is concentrated in the northern states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and parts of western Minnesota, where sodden fields from heavy winter snowpack have hindered planting. As final corn planting dates for insurance purposes approach, Gro’s model shows that more than 1 million acres of corn could go unplanted, a hefty jump from last week’s forecast. In North Dakota, the final corn planting date for insurance purposes is May 25.

Nationwide, 81% of the corn crop has been planted. While that is faster than the five-year average of 75%, it still ranks behind planting progress seen in both 2020 and 2021. Standout states include Iowa and Missouri, where corn planting is greater than 90% complete, while North Dakota corn planting is well below average at 32%.

For soybeans, final planting dates come later, extending into June. Weather forecasts showing a reduced chance of precipitation over the next couple of weeks are expected to help farmers get more seeds in the ground. Gro’s Prevent Plant Model is currently showing forecasted soybean prevent plant acres down nearly 50% from last week’s projection, as seen in this Gro display.   

Nationwide, 66% of the soybean crop has been planted, well above the five-year average of 52%. 

Gro’s Prevent Plant Models are available as part of Gro’s US Farmer Profitability & Crop Budgets Application, a tool that provides detailed, holistic views into US farmer profit and loss prospects. The machine-learning Prevent Plant Models update daily and forecast which areas are likely to have planting problems because of overly wet soil. 

Last year, Gro’s Prevent Plant Models, which are also available in the Gro Portal with a Premium subscription, performed as of June 2022 within 99% of the USDA’s final number reported the following January, as highlighted in Gro’s 2022 Performance Report.  

The last year of significant prevent plant soybean acreage was 2019, when a record 4.4 million acres of soybeans couldn’t be planted. Gro’s Prevent Plant Models forecast a massive jump in prevent plant acres for the year, but historic flooding in many areas of the Midwest ultimately drove prevent plant acres even above Gro’s forecasts.