Monitoring Gro’s Canada Spring Wheat Model

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Monitoring Canada wheat production is paramount amid ongoing bilateral tensions between China and Australia, one of China’s top wheat suppliers. China’s wheat imports are forecast to climb 12% to 6 million tons in the 2020-21 season. Last season, France, Canada and Australia were the biggest suppliers to the country.  

Nationally, Canada's farmers report a 1.5% increase in wheat plantings this year compared to 2019. That's driven by a 16% increase in durum wheat plantings and a near 50% increase in Canada's smaller winter wheat crop to 566,000 hectares, a function of less winter-kill versus last year. The country's main spring wheat crop saw a 5% decrease in plantings this year.  

Gro's Canada Spring Wheat Model currently forecasts a yield of 3.49 tonnes/hectare this season. Assuming a harvested area of 7.09 million hectares, total production of Canadian spring wheat would be 24.74 million tonnes, slightly lower than the estimate of 25.94 million tonnes reported by Canada’s national statistics office (StatCan) on August 31.  

Gro’s model has proved to be more accurate than in-season yield estimates provided by StatCan, Canada’s national statistics office. Forecasts of final yield made on Sept. 1 for the final yield in December have a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.1%.  By contrast, StatCan’s survey-based yield estimates in September have had an 8.6% error rate over a similar time period.   

As with all of Gro’s yield models, our new Canada Spring Wheat model updates daily at the district level and offers in-season, near-real-time yield analysis. 

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.

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