Recent weakness in the soybean market has been placed on hold as weather conditions in the US warrant close monitoring.
CBOT July soybeans rose Tuesday, finding support from a generally dry forecast for the northern Plains and concerns about the impact of cold temperatures over the weekend. In addition, Gro’s Drought Index continues to show worsening conditions for North Dakota, one of the nation’s top soybean producing states.
Gro has been suggesting since mid-March that perfect growing conditions will be needed this season to assure adequate supplies of both corn and soybeans in the US.
Demand for soybeans also is high. Brazilian FOB soybean values remain elevated versus the 5-year average, suggesting world demand should keep a floor under soybean prices worldwide. Brazil, the largest global supplier from March through September, has shipped 33.1 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021, an increase of 4% from this time last year.
Soybean stocks in the US will end the current marketing year at the tightest level on record, while 2021/22 supplies, with a projected stocks-to-use ratio of 3.2%, are expected to be the third-smallest ending stocks in history.
Gro expects that a sizable and sustained decline in soybean futures won’t come without the reassurance of adequate 2021/22 soybean supplies, driven by above-trend yields. Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model, which updates daily with readings at the county, state, and national levels, can be a useful tool for forecasting US supply.
This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.