The August WASDE report, to be released on Aug. 12, takes on heightened importance as crop supplies around the world tighten and global demand continues to rise.
US old crop corn stocks-to-use remain at the tightest level in the past 25 years as the 2020/21 marketing year wraps up at the end of this month, a result of aggressive 2020/21 exports and two years of crop shortfalls. Strong US corn yields are needed to rebuild 2021/22 inventories in the world’s No. 1 corn supplier.
Gro’s current US corn yield forecast points to a final yield of 177.38 bushels/acre. Record yields in the Eastern Corn Belt states of Indiana and Ohio are seen offsetting drought-stricken yields in the northern areas of the Western Corn Belt. Still, Gro’s current corn yield projection would mean US corn stocks remain historically tight.
The Gro US Corn Yield Forecast Model updates daily and leverages machine learning AI to forecast yield at the district level using satellite- and ground-based variables. Those predictions are then aggregated to the state and national levels.
The success of the 2021 corn crop will depend on how widely yields diverge between the northern areas of the WCB and the rest of the Corn Belt.
Meanwhile, the numerous late season weather challenges to the 2021 wheat crop will also bring a lot of attention to the August WASDE report. Any tightening of supply prospects is likely to drive wheat prices higher, whereas unchanged production estimates could pause the recent price rally.
As wheat prices rally amid falling estimates for wheat production in the US, Canada, the EU, and now Russia, reduced wheat availability will likely lead to lower wheat use in feed and an increase in corn consumption. As of last month, the USDA estimated 9.7% of annual wheat production will go to feed this year. In the past 10 years, US wheat has accounted for 7.2% of domestic feed use. In years of high prices and low supply, wheat’s share has dropped to below 3%, supplanted by corn, as seen in 2017/18 and 2007/08.
Gro’s in-season yield forecast models for Canada's spring wheat crop and the Black Sea region’s winter wheat crop offer an early glimpse into production estimates.
This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.