Watching This Week: Corn in China, Cocoa Futures, and Maine Blueberries

CLIMATE-WEATHER

Heatwave Sweeps Northeast China:

Corn conditions across Heilongjiang, China look to be in decent shape. Gro’s latest normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) reading shows that average green-up in the province is inline or above the 10-year mean. However, near-term conditions may be deceptive. The northeast region of China, including Heilongjiang, has experienced a scorching heat wave during June. If the Chinese Corn Belt continues to face heat stress, conditions could look much different come July. We recommend that traders keep a close eye on climate indicators within Gro in the coming week.

COMMODITIES

Mid-Crop Cocoa Harvest Looks Less Than Promising:

The Ivory Coast has simultaneously experienced too much and not enough rainfall during the start of the mid-crop cocoa harvest—May through August. As a result, the country is expected to see a lower-quality crop this season. Potential issues with the mid-crop are unlikely to turn the market entirely bullish on cocoa futures, owing to remaining surplus from the main crop. Yet, there is a technical argument for cocoa futures, which are near a 5-year low. As such, we suggest that procurement managers monitor harvest reports in the coming weeks.

FOOD

Maine’s ‘Berries Are in Great Shape:

Maine’s wild blueberries benefited from abundant rainfall across the US Northeast in June. As a result, the amount of the state’s wild blueberries rated good-to-excellent is 100%—the strongest start since 2014. The state is also seeing a healthy strawberry harvest in June, with growers reporting great yields and excellent quality. Given the weather setbacks in Georgia this year, this is good news for retailers. We encourage retailers and distributors to closely monitor weekly climate and crop progress reports in Gro.