Gro Intelligence released its February supply and demand report 24 hours before the USDA was scheduled to issue the delayed World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Gro’s report showed significant changes from the previous month in production forecasts and trade estimates for several crops grown around the world.
Gro has built one of the world’s largest agriculture-related data platforms and is offering free access for the many users who signed up already along with any interested newcomers. This open-access policy will continue until the USDA's long-term funding issues are settled. Anyone interested can go to www.gro-intelligence.com/USGovShutdown to access our forecasts as well as download all of the data they need.
Here are some highlights from Gro’s February report, and changes from our January report:
Global soybean production is estimated at 367.0 million tonnes in 2018/19, up 2.6 percent from January estimates. Changes were mostly driven by bumper crop forecasts in parts of South America. Gro’s Argentina soybean yield model forecast Argentine soybean production at 60.6 million tonnes, an increase of 14 percent from last month. This is a 5 million tonne increase from the December 2018 WASDE forecast.
Worldwide wheat exports are forecast to drop to 172.0 million tonnes, down 1.4 million tonnes from last month. Gro’s India wheat yield model projects higher production of 1.2 million tonnes to 95.4 million tonnes. However Ukraine wheat production will drop 3.2 million tonnes to 24.6 million tonnes.
US corn used for ethanol is lowered by 50 million bushels to 5525 million bushels for 2018/19 and US corn ending stocks are increased by 50 million bushels to 1745 million bushels.
Gro released its estimates yesterday to help the market better prepare for the February WASDE report, given the volatility in commodity prices that has followed previous releases delayed by government shutdowns. Gro also issued estimates for major global crops on Jan. 11, to fill the void left by last month’s absent WASDE.
Gro’s estimates differ significantly in some cases from the last WASDE report, which came out on Dec. 11. Among the differences:
Gro’s 2018/19 projection for US soybeans includes a 50.6 bushels/acre yield estimate based on Gro’s US soybean yield model, compared with the USDA’s December WASDE estimate of 52.1 bushels/acre.
Gro’s 2018/19 projection for Brazil soybean production is 118.65 million tonnes, down 3.35 million tonnes from the last WASDE estimate.
Gro’s 2018/19 projection for US corn includes a 177.4 bushels/acre yield estimate based on Gro’s US corn yield model, compared with the USDA’s December WASDE estimate of 178.9 bushels/acre.
To get instant access to our data platform and analytical models, which include our supply and demand estimates, you can sign up for free by visiting www.gro-intelligence.com/USGovShutdown.
Once you create your Gro account, you will be able to view our library of pre-made Supply and Demand curated displays. On the left-hand side of your dashboard you will see a navigation bar. Hovering over each icon in the navigation bar will present the icon's name. Click on the Gro Curated Displays icon, the second icon from the top, and type "Gro Supply & Demand" in the search bar at the top to see all relevant displays.