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Canadian Oats’ Robust Outlook Holds Promise for US Cereal, Oat Milk Makers

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Canada’s increased area planted to oats should replenish global supplies of the grain a year after a crippling drought sent the country’s oat stocks to their lowest level in more than half a century. Canada’s oat production, the world’s largest, drives global oats trade, and most of the oats that US food manufacturers use for cereals and alternative dairy products are imported from Canada. 

Canadian farmers planted 16% more acres to oats this year than a year earlier. That, coupled with improved growing conditions, should result in a much bigger harvest. The USDA has forecast Canadian oat production will increase year over year by 76% to 4.6 million tonnes. 

Canada’s Prairie provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta grow the bulk of the country’s oat crop. View a display from the Gro Portal of Canada’s oat production, planted area, and stocks here

Canada’s oat crop got off to a slow start due to cold, wet weather, but growing conditions have improved. Gro’s vegetative health index, weighted for Canadian acres planted to oats, has moved higher in recent weeks. And soil moisture levels, near a decade high, are favorable for the water-tolerant oat plants. 

Gro’s vegetative health index, along with other measures of growing conditions, can be weighted for specific crops worldwide, including oats, using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. View a Navigator display for Canadian oats here or schedule a demo with our sales team here to learn how Climate Risk Navigator can be tailored to your organization’s needs.

 Improved soil moisture levels for Canada’s oat crop (blue line) bode well for a big jump in production this year, as seen in this display from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture.

For US food producers with oat-based products, a robust Canadian crop would be a boon, as imported Canadian oats typically represent about half of total US supply. Prospects for the US crop are less promising. US oat-planted area is down by 6% year over year to the lowest level in a decade. And severe drought in Texas is weighing on the harvest in the biggest oat-producing state. Other oat-growing states, mainly in the northern Plains, are faring better, with crop conditions at or above historical averages. 

Gro’s vegetative health index, weighted for US acres planted to oats, is at the lowest level in nearly a decade, as can be seen in this Gro Climate Risk Navigator display. And view a display from the Gro Portal of US oat production, yield, planted area, and stocks here

Oat futures prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks amid a widespread selloff of agricultural commodities, and as prospects brighten for the Canadian oat crop.

What to Follow Next: 

Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture displays real-time updates of growing conditions that can be weighted for specific crops worldwide, including Canadian oats and US oats

Related Insights: 

Ag Futures Sink on Recession Fears, Despite Fundamentals

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Soggy Spring Could Put Already-Reduced Canola Acres At Greater Risk


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