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Canada Spring Wheat Harvest Will Surpass StatCan Estimate, Gro Predicts

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Favorable growing conditions will push Canadian spring wheat production past StatCan’s 25.6 million tonnes 2022 production estimate, according to Gro’s Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model. Spring wheat, which is harvested from mid-August to October, makes up the bulk of Canada’s total wheat production. 

During a year in which Canadian farmers expanded spring wheat acreage 12.5%, Canada’s bumper spring wheat crop stands out as a bright spot for global supplies. As we wrote about last week, 2022/23 global wheat inventories outside of China are forecast to drop to the lowest level in 14 years. 

Canada’s 2021 spring wheat production plunged 38% as the crop endured the worst drought in two decades. Growing conditions are vastly improved this year, and Gro’s Yield Forecast Model — which relies on daily inputs of readings for temperature, rainfall, satellite-derived vegetative health and other factors — is pointing to a sharp jump in yield. 

Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture allows users to view a wide range of growing conditions, weighted for a specific crop and region, and compare conditions with previous years. See a Navigator display for Canadian wheat here

Other Canadian crops also grown in Canada’s wheat belt provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba are benefiting from this year’s favorable conditions, as well, including barley, canola, lentils, and oats. 

For example, Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator, weighted to Canada's oat-growing areas, shows the sharp differences in vegetative health, Gro Drought Index readings and soil moisture levels between this year and last. 

StatCan has projected Canada’s total 2022 wheat production of 34.6 million tonnes, 57% higher than last year. Durum wheat, which is used in pastas and desserts, is forecast to come in at 6.5 million tonnes. Canada normally exports about 20 million tonnes of wheat per year, with most exports destined for Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, Colombia, and China. 


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