Brazil’s bumper soybean crop will offset sharp soybean crop declines in Argentina, lifting the countries’ combined production just above last year’s level, according to Gro’s in-season soybean yield forecast models for both countries. This suggests that South America’s biggest soybean crops will have a negligible impact on the global soybean stocks-to-use ratio, a measure of available supply.
In 2022, Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model’s production estimate was 98% accurate six months before Brazil’s government released its final figure, and our Argentina soybean model’s forecast was within 97% of Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture’s final number more than five months before publication.
This year soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina face diverging prospects. While Brazil’s adequate moisture and improved growing conditions as the season progressed have its soybean production tracking record yields for 2022/23, which refers to the local 2023/24 marketing year, Argentina’s soybean crop has been beset by challenges ranging from a crippling, multi-year drought to mid-February’s unseasonably cool temperatures.
View displays of Gro’s Brazil Soybean Monitor and Argentina Soybean Monitor, which show crop yield forecasts, growing conditions, and supply and demand balance sheets.
Currently, Gro’s Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, which measures plant health, is trending at historical lows when weighted to Argentina soybeans using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, despite hopes that January’s above-average rainfall could alleviate drought conditions in soybean-growing areas.
Against this backdrop, our Argentina soybean yield forecast model is predicting the lowest production level for the country in the last 14 years. This increases the likelihood that Argentina, which leads the world in soybean meal and soybean oil production and exports, will trim soybean exports and prioritize production rates of soybean meal and oil. During the 2022/23 marketing year, Argentina exported more than 5 million metric tons of soybean oil, more than double Brazil’s, the world’s No. 2 soybean oil supplier, as shown in this Gro display.
Brazil, the world’s top soybean exporter, has already harvested more than 20% of this season’s soybean crop. Argentina starts its soybean harvest in April.