Drought conditions related to a La Nina event are delaying soybean planting in Brazil and could reduce production this season in the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseeds.
Gro’s Drought Index shows severe dryness in the top soybean producing regions of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a La Nina Advisory, indicating a high chance the disruptive climate conditions could persist in coming months.
Not only is the current dryness giving Brazil’s soybean growing season a late start, but adequate precipitation is needed for germination of the seed. Reduced rainfall throughout the growing season can negatively affect yields. Brazil is already experiencing a very tight domestic bean situation, importing from Paraguay and Uruguay, and delayed planting could push harvest back as well. Delays to soybean plantings can also impact the safrinha, or second, corn crop.
The GFS model has little to no rainfall in its forecast for Mato Grosso and the surrounding areas through Oct. 12, at least a two-week delay to the start of the season. Longer-range models start to promote showers after that date.
Brazil can ill afford a less than perfect soybean crop. With increasing demand from China, and tight domestic supply, every bit of tonnage counts. Gro offers an in-season Brazilian soybean yield model to stay on top of market moving dynamics. As with all of Gro’s yield models, our Brazil soybean yield model updates daily at the district level and offers in-season, near-real-time yield analysis.
This is Gro’s first in a series of La Nina impacts on crop production; stay tuned for future reports.
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