China’s Wheat Crop Threatened by Toxin Risk After Flooding

Henan province grows about 25% of China’s wheat and 8% of China’s corn. It is also home to 110 million people. Following a recent dry spell, torrential rainfall on July 19th of 146.09mm, the highest single-day rainfall on record, caused flooding in Zhengzhou, the capital city. 

The forecast for the rest of July and early August calls for more rain and temperatures over 90 degrees fahrenheit. The heat and humidity significantly increase the risk of mycotoxin contamination in Henan’s freshly harvested wheat crop, threatening the quality of a significant portion of China’s domestic wheat supply for the 2021/22 marketing year. 

Gro’s Aflatoxin Risk Index is a model framework that can be used to predict the risk of contamination by aflatoxin, the most dangerous form of mycotoxin globally.The machine-learning model can help identify the areas of greatest risk and thus indicate where to concentrate testing and control measures. Click here for more information about our Aflatoxin Risk Index. 

Record demand for animal feed has caused corn prices in China to skyrocket in the last year, which has caused producers to substitute wheat for corn in feed. A record 40 million tonnes of wheat will be used in feed this year, and usage next year is expected to be high as well. 

China’s imports of wheat and feed grains hit record highs in 2020/2021. A significant reduction in the domestic supply of wheat for feed would mean China will need to increase its import of wheat and feed grains still further. Prices of wheat, corn, and flour in Henan have been stable in the last couple of days.

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.