Argentina announced plans to cap corn and wheat exports in the next marketing year as part of efforts to quell domestic inflation. The move follows Argentina’s recent decision to relax a beef export cap enacted earlier in 2021 to fight inflation, which hovers at an annual rate of about 50%.
Argentina will limit exports of corn to 41.6 million tonnes and of wheat to 12.5 million tonnes. Both levels are quite high — the quotas exceed a previous export record for corn and are close to a record for wheat, both set in 2019/20. Still, with record production expected for both the corn and wheat crops, Argentina’s exports could test the new export limits.
Argentina has rivaled Brazil as the world’s third largest corn exporter, with shipments going mainly to Asian destinations, while most of Argentina’s wheat exports are sold to neighboring Brazil. Any disruptions in Argentine exports could disrupt trade flows and force importers to seek out alternative sources.
Other major grain exporters, including Russia and Ukraine, have enacted similar export restrictions to counter domestic inflation, signaling that this year’s trade protectionist trends are continuing into 2022.
Gro’s Argentina Corn Yield Forecast Model is currently projecting a big increase in the corn crop, which is in its early stages, following last year’s drought-hit harvest. Gro’s yield model, available to Premium subscribers, updates daily through the growing season and should be monitored regularly, especially since the recent return of La Niña could bring more dry weather later this season. Contact email@example.com for more information about Gro’s forecast models.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina’s corn production to climb by 9% to 57 million tonnes in 2022 from a year earlier, and wheat production to rise by 24% to 21 million tonnes, which would be record crops for both grains.
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