The 2017 spring wheat tour kicks off this week. USDA pegs spring wheat yield at 40.3 bushels per acre—the lowest since 2011. A map of vegetative health in spring wheat areas confirms the pessimism. Conditions remain uneven across North Dakota, the largest producer of hard red spring wheat. Wheat conditions in the Red River Valley area look promising while western North Dakota is deep in drought. Final production will likely be determined by acres abandoned for insurance reasons. In fact, the Farm Service Agency’s acreage report may be just as important as yields to traders this season.