Gro Intelligence works with food and beverage companies to mitigate climate-related supply chain risk and help procurement teams buy at better prices.

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Incorporate growing conditions for any region, weighted by a specific crop, into your sourcing decisions.

Forecast crop availability such as corn, soy, or wheat for regions around the world by monitoring Gro's daily updating yield estimates.

Monitor drought in key regions for early warning signs of how drought may impact crop production, supplies, and prices.

Identify the portions of the globe that are the best suited to growing a given crop. 

Efficiently monitor potential risks to the supply of your key ingredients

Monitor soy, corn, or wheat ending stocks to predict price moves.

Understand food inflation in the US six weeks ahead of official government reports.

Gauge tightness of available crop supplies and how that might impact price.

Monitor current and forward cash price of wheat, corn, and soybeans for a specific US facility.

Forecast price drivers to improve your purchasing decisions

Features built for easy integration into your workflow.

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As Halloween approaches, El Niño is disrupting more than weather patterns and crop cycles — it’s hitting the candy aisles in US supermarkets. Americans purchase around 600 million pounds of candy for the holiday every year. But with chief ingredients like sugar and cocoa facing reduced global supplies, satisfying trick-or-treaters’ sweet tooths will cost more in 2023.While overall US food price inflation is little changed from this time last year — according to the consumption-weighted&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6Rw1vjAdW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro US Food Price Index</a> — candy-making costs are another matter. Ingredients that go into making a milk chocolate bar are up a combined 10% year over year, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/custom-price-index-application" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Custom Price Index application</a>. For some brands, the ingredient costs of&nbsp; their chocolate bars are up as much as 13%.The Gro Custom Price Index allows food manufacturers to track inflationary pressures by creating customized price indices of product ingredients.&nbsp;Much of the higher candy ingredient costs is being passed on to consumers. For example, list prices for one major US candy manufacturer have risen in every quarter since late 2021, even as gross profit margins bounced back in the 2023 first half from last year’s lows.&nbsp;El Niño, together with other extreme weather events, is a big factor driving up prices for a host of candy bar ingredients:&nbsp;Sugar<ul><li>Sugar costs for manufacturers have jumped 25% year over year, according to the&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/custom-price-indices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Custom Price Index</a> application.&nbsp;</li><li>Global sugar supplies are tight —&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dX00jgd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">world sugar stocks</a> have fallen for the past two years and are currently at the lowest level since 2011.</li><li>Dry conditions in the western Pacific, brought on by El Niño, have reduced sugarcane harvests in major producers India and Thailand, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-s-troubled-sugar-crop-could-further-boost-global-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;</li></ul>Cocoa&nbsp;<ul><li>Cocoa costs candy manufacturers 56% more than it did a year ago, the Gro Custom Price Index shows.&nbsp;</li><li>A driving factor behind the higher prices: El Niño threatens to reduce the main Ivory Coast cocoa crop that will be harvested through the 2024 first quarter. The West African country produces more than&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR87onbqe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">50% of the world’s cocoa</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>While Ivory Coast has seen abundant rainfall so far in 2023, previous El Niño years have produced drier conditions in the region, curtailing yields, as Gro highlighted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/ivory-coast-cocoa-bounty-could-dry-up-as-el-nino-strengthens" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;</li></ul>Other ingredients often added to chocolate bars<ul><li>Peanut costs are up 7.5% from last year, according to Gro’s Custom Price Index. Extreme heat in the US South could signal trouble for the 2023 harvest and further support prices.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAjv5zR4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Crop ratings</a> in Georgia and Texas are currently at record lows.</li><li>Rice costs are up 5% from this time last year, according to the Gro index. Tightening supplies and trade restrictions in many big producers, including&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-considers-broadening-rice-export-curbs-as-domestic-food-inflation-mounts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India</a>, have pushed up&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR877Jbqe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rice export prices</a> globally and could sustain upward price pressures for food manufacturers. Global rice ending stocks are forecast to decline for a fourth year in a row, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd33OA0do" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.</li><li>Almond costs are down more than 2% year over year, providing some relief to food manufacturers after steep increases that drove prices up 17.4% since 2021, Gro’s index shows. California&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7KJKdo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">almond production</a> declined two years in a row and is forecast to be up only slightly this year.</li></ul>

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El Niño Lifts Candy Prices for Halloween

A slow start to India’s monsoon season could reduce 2023/24 sugarcane production in some of the country’s key producing regions, potentially limiting India’s sugar exports and giving a further boost to global prices.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dX00jgd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World sugar stocks</a> have fallen for the past two years and are currently at the lowest level since 2011. That has helped push&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd3rVx59o" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sugar futures prices</a> up by 20% so far this year to multi-year highs. India, the world’s No. 2 sugar producer and the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/ZRlBBpAdB" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">largest sugar consumer</a> by far, can have a substantial impact on global sugar supplies as it periodically shifts from being a&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR87x3wqe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">net exporter to a net importer</a>.&nbsp;In Maharashtra and Karnataka states, which together account for about one-third of India’s total sugar production, the sugarcane crop thrives on the abundant monsoon rainfall from June to September. However, this year’s poor precipitation during the crop’s early vegetative growth period could result in lower yields and reduced output.In Karnataka, June accumulated precipitation was 60% below the 10-year average, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. While precipitation rebounded in July — rainfall was 72% above average for the month — the deficit in the plants’ early stages could already have damaged the crop.&nbsp;Maharashtra’s sugarcane-growing areas also saw a drier-than-average June followed by heavy rains in July. Accumulated precipitation for the state’s sugarcane areas from June to mid-August is now tracking at 16% above the average, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/11193,Maharashtra$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Sugarcane%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India:11193,Maharashtra" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display</a>.&nbsp;2021 also saw below-average rainfall in June, which caused&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg77w7do" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">India’s total sugarcane</a> production that season to fall 13% year over year. Exports dropped by nearly half that year.&nbsp;Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest sugarcane growing state, but its production quantities are not as closely correlated to the amount and timing of monsoon rains as is production in Maharashtra and Karnataka, a previous&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/indias-monsoon-a-better-way-to-assess-its-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro analysis&nbsp;</a>found. As a result,&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq6YAbmdW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Uttar Pradesh</a> has seen relatively steady sugarcane production for the past 20 years.&nbsp;India has previously restricted sugar exports to help control domestic food price inflation. The government typically decides sugar export quantities before the start of the new marketing year on October 1. For the 2022/23 season, sugar shipments are capped at 6.1 million tonnes, down from 11 million tonnes the year before. India has also imposed export restrictions on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-seen-cutting-wheat-import-tax-to-curb-food-price-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat&nbsp;</a>and wheat flour and much of its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/wheat-futures-spike-on-russian-escalation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rice</a>.&nbsp;Any shortfall in India’s sugar production would make the sugarcane crop in Brazil, the No. 1 producer,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-s-sugar-harvest-is-critical-as-prices-hit-multi-year-highs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">even more critical</a>. Brazil has seen the highest level of cumulative precipitation in 20 years, as shown in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10404,Minas%20Gerais:10406,Paran%C3%A1:10408,S%C3%A3o%20Paulo:10413,Distrito%20Federal:10415,Goi%C3%A1s:10417,Mato%20Grosso%20do%20Sul$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Land%20Area%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a> from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, weighted for sugarcane area in Brazil’s main growing states. As a result, sugarcane production in Brazil’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEeo0Rw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Center South region&nbsp;</a>is currently running 20% above year-earlier levels.&nbsp;

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India’s Troubled Sugar Crop Could Further Boost Global Prices

Indonesia’s robusta coffee production could be headed for another lackluster year as hot and dry conditions resulting from El Niño threaten to weaken the 2024 crop and drive up prices.&nbsp;Robusta coffee futures prices are currently at the highest levels seen in nearly a decade, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBvlxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display shows</a>. By contrast, prices for Arabica coffee, mostly grown in Brazil, are down sharply from last year’s peaks. Indonesia is the third-largest producer of robusta beans, after Vietnam and Brazil.&nbsp;Coffee crops are highly susceptible to weather volatility. Indonesia’s 2023 robusta crop, which was just harvested, was damaged when&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BlreYqM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">excessive rains</a> in April and May disrupted the cherry development. This caused the country’s recent harvest to decline by 20% to its lowest in more than a decade, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2dawkB3Rn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Currently, precipitation in Indonesia’s coffee-growing areas is well below average, and soil moisture readings are at their lowest in 20 years, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. As El Niño ramps up, hotter and drier conditions are expected to settle into the region late this year and linger into early 2024, overlapping with the robusta crop’s crucial flowering period.&nbsp;The strong El Niño event that hit in 2015-16 brought the second-highest drought levels in Indonesia’s coffee-growing regions for the last 20 years, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1095,Indonesia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22RobustaCoffee%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:12,Asia:1095,Indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Drought Index</a>. The 2016 robusta production in the country&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2dawkB3Rn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fell by 12%</a> as a result.El Niño also is predicted to reduce 2024&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/as-la-nina-exits-palm-oil-production-could-rise-in-2023-but-drop-in-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palm oil yields</a> in Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia, the world’s No. 1 and 2 producers of the popular edible oil.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/australia-wheat-crop-headed-for-double-digit-decline-gro-model-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Australia’s wheat</a> harvest also is projected to be down by double digits as a result of El Niño.&nbsp;Robusta beans account for 40% of global coffee production. Arabica beans, which make up the remaining 60%, are usually deemed to be of higher quality and command higher prices than robusta coffee.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxonLB92" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vietnam</a>, the world’s No. 1 robusta producer, could also see 2024 production impacted, as the country tends to see higher temperatures and reduced rainfall during El Niño events.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDZ4WYdV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Brazil’s 2023 robusta crop</a>, currently being harvested, also is projected to be down year over year as below-average rain early in the season stunted coffee cherry development.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;More than half of Indonesia’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QWax8qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">total coffee area</a> is located in Sumatra. Arabica crops dominate in northern Sumatra and some mountainous areas in Java, while robusta is grown mostly in southern Sumatra and lower lands in Java.

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Robusta Coffee Prices Could Get Further Boost From El Niño 

<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9N7aDmdb" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Plentiful rain</a> is favoring the current mid-crop cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer. But the country’s main cocoa harvest, which starts later this year, could suffer as El Niño climate conditions are expected to gain strength.&nbsp;Accumulated precipitation in Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing areas so far in 2023 is 49% above the five-year average — the region’s highest total precipitation for this time of year since at least 2000 — as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, which can be weighted to highlight conditions for specific crops and regions. (See chart below.) For the 2022/23 marketing year, which ends in September, the country is forecast to produce 2.20 million tonnes of cocoa, up 4% from the previous year due to the heavy rains.&nbsp;Ivory Coast&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR87onbqe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">harvests cocoa</a> throughout the year, producing two crops. The smaller mid-crop is harvested from April to September, and the larger main crop is harvested from October to March. With El Niño climate conditions forecast to strengthen into the 2023/24 Northern Hemisphere winter, that could spell trouble for Ivory Coast’s main crop cocoa yields.Previous El Niño years have led to drier conditions in West Africa, curtailing cocoa yields in the region.&nbsp;In the El Niño years of 2009 and 2015, for example, accumulated rainfall declined sharply from the five-year average by 53% and 30%, respectively, in the period from July to September — the months during which weather conditions have the greatest impact on Ivory Coast’s main cocoa crop, according to a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/as-cocoa-harvest-begins-risks-emerge-from-major-producing-countries" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro analysis</a>. As a result, Ivory Coast cocoa yields dropped 6.5% in 2009 from a year earlier and were down 2.2% in 2015.&nbsp;After three successive years of La Niña climate conditions, which tend to bring additional precipitation to West Africa’s cocoa plantations, there is much uncertainty about what the return of El Niño holds in store for the region’s production. Nearly half of the world's cocoa bean production comes from Ivory Coast. Together with neighboring Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, the four countries account for three-quarters of all cocoa beans.&nbsp;Such concentration of supply in a single agricultural area underlines the outsize impact of the region’s weather patterns on world cocoa prices and supplies. It also underlines the importance of monitoring growing conditions in the region, including precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature, as shown in these displays, weighted for Ivory Coast cocoa, in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1052,C%C3%B4te%20d%27Ivoire$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cocoa%22%5D%7D_1?0,World:11,Africa:1052,C%C3%B4te%20d%27Ivoire" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> and in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/climate-anomalies/?country=1052&amp;province=1052&amp;climate_series=Temperature&amp;num_days=2023-05-12&amp;date_picker=2023-06-11&amp;map_crop_choice=Cocoa&amp;crop_picker=Cocoa&amp;col_choice=Current+Temperature+%28%C2%B0C%29" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Anomalies application</a>.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1686771694/new-website/Accumulated_Rainfall_in_Ivory_Coast_s_Cocoa_Growing_Regions_ffde86b965.png"></figure>Accumulated precipitation so far in 2023 (red line) in cocoa growing areas of Ivory Coast is 49% above the five-year average. But the expected strengthening of El Niño later this year could bring drier conditions, which can be monitored using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture application.&nbsp;

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Ivory Coast Cocoa Bounty Could Dry Up as El Niño Strengthens

The US Supreme Court’s backing late last week for California’s Proposition 12 animal welfare rule looks set to restrict pork and pork product supplies in the state beginning in 2024, while potentially bloating supplies and depressing prices in the rest of the country.The California law, which mandates increased space requirements for sows giving birth, is set to take effect July 1, unless the state changes the timeline. That effectively will require pork sold in California be compliant with the new regulation as of January 1, 2024, given the time it takes for the piglets to grow to market weight.&nbsp;California accounts for about 15% of the country’s pork consumption, while less than 5% of the US pork supply is currently compliant with the state’s new regulation. The 10% difference, representing excess pork supplies that would be barred from California, could need to be added to market supplies outside of the state, further squeezing the industry’s already tight profit margins.The US hog industry already has scaled back operations — and further cuts to herd sizes are planned — in anticipation of the new California restrictions and in response to soft consumer demand. Pork processors for the most part have indicated they aren’t willing to pay to retool their barns to comply with the California law without evidence that consumers will accept paying higher meat costs.&nbsp;View&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQlZA9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a> showing US hog inventories and locations, as well as farrowing and slaughter rates.&nbsp;Smithfield Foods, the largest US player, phased out its only California pork processing plant over the past two years, citing the high costs of operating in the state. Last week, Smithfield announced it was closing more than 30 sow operations around the country, again citing competitive costs.&nbsp;Other hog producers also are cutting back. The USDA’s latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released in March, showed the US breeding herd is at the lowest level since 2017. Farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2023 — or producers’ plans to raise new piglets — showed a 3% decline, which would drop farrowing rates to the lowest level since 2015.Even those cutbacks may not be enough to offset excess supplies currently sold in California, and further industry reductions could be forthcoming. Not all pork products will be affected by the California law — hot dogs and sausage, for example, are exempt. But bacon shortages are widely expected in the state beginning in 2024.&nbsp;Adding to the uncertain industry outlook — many questions remain outstanding about the new California law, which first passed in 2018 and has long been delayed. For one thing, it’s unclear if California will bar noncompliant product from entering the state or impose a fine. How the state will enforce the law also hasn’t been made clear, leading to speculation that clandestine sales of noncompliant meat could proliferate.&nbsp;

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California Law Has US Pork Industry Bracing for Excess Supplies

Price spreads between palm oil and soybean oil are particularly wide on a historical basis, despite a sharp narrowing since the start of the year. But spreads between the two biggest vegetable oils’ prices, which many food companies consider when making buying decisions, could return to still wider levels as 2023 advances.&nbsp;The relative prices of palm and soybean oils, the two most widely consumed edible oils, are important to food manufacturers because they are often able to use the oils interchangeably as recipe ingredients. The price relationship also is watched by financial firms, which might use the spread as a trading signal.&nbsp;Currently, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is about US$431 per tonne, meaning that a tonne of soybean oil costs $431 more than the same amount of palm oil. While that’s down sharply from more than $700/tonne in late 2022, the current spread is still well above the average for the past two years of US$343/tonne. Historically, soybean oil has typically traded at a premium of $100-$150/tonne to palm oil. (See graph below.)&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1677865180/new-website/Palm_Oil_vs_Soybean_Oil_Prices_661b13307e.png"><figcaption>Price spreads between palm and soybean oil, shown by the red bars, have narrowed from a peak reached in late 2022, but spreads remain wide on a historical basis. Palm oil prices are shown with the blue line and soybean oil prices are in green.</figcaption></figure>Driving the price-spread volatility has been the diverging supply/demand picture for the two edible oils. Palm oil prices have slumped in the past year, and they are likely to remain under pressure in the coming months as <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMw6j9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palm oil production</a> in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to accelerate in the wake of La Niña’s departure, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/as-la-nina-exits-palm-oil-production-could-rise-in-2023-but-drop-in-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;In contrast, soybean oil prices have remained stubbornly high. Supplies are likely to <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/brazil-soybeans-to-offset-argentina-s-frazzled-crop-gro-models-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">stay under pressure</a> due to severe drought in Argentina, the No. 1 exporter of soybean oil. And soybean oil’s growing use as a feedstock in manufacturing renewable diesel is expected to underpin demand — a trend that has caused soybean oil to increasingly trade roughly in parallel with crude oil prices.Price spreads also can influence trade flows. China, for example, ramped up palm oil imports in late 2022 at a time when palm oil prices were trading at a deep discount to soybean oil, as shown in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/B7qb1vYdX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>. While Chinese palm imports so far in 2023 have been muted, the current sharp price spread between the two edible oils — in addition to tight supplies of sunflower and rapeseed oils due to the Russia-Ukraine war — could encourage China to accelerate palm oil imports.&nbsp;Another possible outcome is that China could step up purchases of soybeans from Brazil to refine into soybean oil inside China, especially with domestic soyoil prices sharply above those of palm, as seen in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57ZLLR0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>. Brazil, which is headed for a bumper soybean crop, as shown by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRLeMvw9p" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Monitor</a>, is the No. 1 exporter of soybeans to China and to the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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Palm vs Soy Oil Price Disparity Likely to Increase in 2023

India’s sugar crop is poised for another <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg77w7do">bumper year</a>, thanks to above average monsoon rains in Maharashtra, the country's second largest sugar producing state. This is good news as India’s strong crop could help address shortfalls in Brazil and Europe, sugar-producing regions that experienced challenging growing seasons this year.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, higher sugar production out of India, the world’s second largest producer,&nbsp; will impact both local and global prices, ahead of the country’s 2022/23 sugar export policy statement, which is expected this week.&nbsp;Currently, <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/11193,Maharashtra$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Sugarcane%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India:11193,Maharashtra">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, aggregated to Maharashtra’s sugarcane-growing areas, shows that accumulated rainfall, between June 1 and September 19, was 33% above the 10-year average. When comparable amounts of rainfall fell in the state in 2013/14, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq6YAbmdW">Maharashtra’s production</a> rose 11.4% versus the year prior and India’s total sugarcane production increased 7.3%. In 2010/11, comparable monsoon rains led to a 33.6% jump in production in Maharashtra. Overall Indian sugar production rose 16.9% that year.&nbsp;&nbsp;A previous Gro <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/indias-monsoon-a-better-way-to-assess-its-impact">analysis</a> shows that sugarcane production in Maharashtra is very closely linked to India’s monsoon rains. India’s top sugar producing state Uttar Pradesh, where the crop’s success is not linked to monsoon rains, has seen relatively steady sugarcane production for the past 20 years.India’s expected uptick in production comes as a second year of record drought threatens to cause another short crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter. Brazil’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEeo0Rw">center south region sugarcane production</a> is currently down 11% versus 2021/22. Top sugar producing state of São Paulo state, which produces more than half of Brazil’s total sugarcane, has experienced severe levels of drought since early 2020, according to <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10408,S%C3%A3o%20Paulo$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Sugarcane%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil:10408,S%C3%A3o%20Paulo">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>.&nbsp;Additionally, this summer's hot and dry weather in Europe, the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qb7VJkRX">world's third-largest sugar producer</a>, caused smaller sugar beet yields and lower sugar production, meaning that Europe will require more sugar imports than usual.&nbsp;In May, as India was grappling with high <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kqzOOPNRW">domestic sugar prices</a>, the Indian government capped sugar exports to <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-caps-sugar-exports-to-control-rising-domestic-prices">10 million tonnes</a>, but later allowed another 1.2 million tonnes to help the country’s sugar mills from defaulting on export contracts. This took the total export quota for the 2021/22 marketing year to 11.2 million tonnes. India's sugar exports stood at 7.0 million tonnes in 2020/21, 5.9 in 2019/20 and 3.8 in 2018/19.Throughout this year India has instituted numerous protectionist measures to curb inflation from multi-year highs. Most recently, it banned broken rice exports, while also placing a duty on other rice varieties as Gro highlighted <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-levies-an-export-duty-on-rice">here</a>. <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-wheat-export-ban-risks-inflaming-food-insecurity-worldwide">Wheat exports</a> were curbed back in May followed by <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-bans-exports-of-wheat-flour-in-latest-move-to-stem-rising-food-prices">wheat flour</a> in late August. The country has also allowed duty-free imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil.&nbsp;

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