Geospatial data is any object or information that has a location on the Earth’s surface. Most data that is related to climate, agriculture, and food security has some element of geospatial information, whether that is information spread across space and time, or at specific locations (points) for a specific window of time.

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Leverage Gro's geospatial data to

A global, up-to-date layer of all cities, districts, provinces, countries, and continents with administrative boundaries

Very powerful for searching and defining regional calculations quickly

Observed or modeled weather variables including precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration

Also variables like Soil moisture, vegetative health , NDVI Water bodies

Three major features set Gro's geospatial data apart

The Gro platform leverages our geospatial data to enable better and faster decision making.&nbsp;For example, Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture (CRN) gives users a detailed look at cultivated agricultural areas, providing information on where specific crops are grown. Users can change crop weights within the application and it allows you to look at climate variables and indices weighted by the land area designated for specific crops.

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As extreme weather continues worldwide, monitoring and accurately quantifying hot and dry conditions can help quantitative and financial teams stay ahead of major commodity market movements. To address these needs, Gro Intelligence, an AI-driven data and analytics company helping businesses, financial institutions, and governments make better decisions on food security and climate risk, has built the Gro Drought Index (GDI). The GDI is a proprietary index of global drought and a high-signal indicator of major agricultural trends such as abandoned acres, yields, and prices.In this report, we explore two case studies where the GDI led futures prices and presented signals for profitable trades: US hard red winter wheat and US cotton.You will learn how:&nbsp;<ul><li>Quantitative and fundamental analysts can use the Gro Drought Index to focus on drought impact in crop-growing areas and anticipate potential threats to production and prices</li><li>Early on in a crop's growing season, the Gro Drought Index can provide an assessment of the potential for abandoned acres (a key indicator of price) in a growing region, down to the county level</li><li>There is a significant linear relationship between average monthly Gro Drought Index readings and the average monthly price of major agricultural commodities</li></ul><a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/using-the-gro-drought-index-as-a-high-signal-trading-indicator" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here</a>.

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Using the Gro Drought Index as a High-Signal Trading Indicator for Agricultural Commodities

Hurricane Idalia, bearing down on Florida’s Big Bend region, is forecasted to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to a wide swath of the southeastern US.&nbsp;The track of the storm, due to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, isn’t expected to hit the central citrus growing region in Florida. However, the storm poses a serious threat to Georgia’s cotton crop.&nbsp;Last year, Hurricane Ian dealt a major blow to Florida's struggling citrus industry.Excessive heat already decimated cotton production in Texas, the No. 1 cotton-producing state in the US, for a second consecutive year, as Gro highlighted&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/texas-cotton-prospects-wither-as-extreme-heat-continues" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Further losses out of Georgia could push&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEeKpRw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US cotton ending stocks</a> to their lowest levels in nearly a decade.&nbsp;The US is the world’s third-largest cotton producer and its top exporter. This&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/1Rj6A5JRk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro display</a> shows where the crop is grown in the southeastern part of the country. Much of the region along the East Coast is directly in Hurricane Idalia’s predicted path.Georgia, the second-largest cotton-producing state, accounts for roughly 15% of US cotton production. While its planted cotton area pales in comparison to Texas’ cotton acreage, Georgia has historically produced a much higher-yielding crop, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57a2AR0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.This season, however, Georgia is likely to see a reduction in yield and crop quality. As of Sunday, the boll-opening process in the state was 21% complete, placing about a quarter of Georgia’s crop at risk for significant wind and rain damage.&nbsp;The&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxoEWl92" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GFS forecast</a> through August 31 shows Idalia pummeling Georgia’s cotton-growing areas, with upwards of seven inches of rain in some locations. Heavy precipitation on opened cotton bolls damages plant fibers and contributes to lint loss.Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30. El Niño years typically bring fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic during the peak of the season. However, this year, NOAA forecasters with the US Climate Prediction Center predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season due to factors including abnormally high ocean temperatures.

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Hurricane Idalia Could Pummel Georgia’s Cotton Crop

Intensifying drought in Spain, the No. 1 producer of olive oil, has sent global buyers scrambling for alternative sources of the popular vegetable oil. For Turkey, that has caused olive oil exports to surge, prompting the government to impose a temporary ban on further exports to help control domestic prices.&nbsp;Spain’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBm1Yq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">olive oil production</a> in 2022 dropped by more than 50% from a year earlier — and was down by a similar amount from the five-year average — as drought and overly hot conditions pushed olive yields down. The Gro Drought Index, weighted for Spain’s cropland area using&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, shows drought conditions are currently at “extreme” levels, surpassing even last year’s intensely dry weather. Accumulated rainfall for this year is more than 30% below the 10-year average, and represents the lowest precipitation amounts since 2012.&nbsp;By contrast, Turkey's olive oil production increased by 72% in 2022 from a year earlier and was up by a similar amount from the five-year average. Still, a surge in olive oil exports —&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/jdOEyZeRw" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">up more than four-fold</a> so far this year from a year earlier — could push domestic prices higher and exacerbate the country’s already elevated food price inflation.&nbsp;Since January 2020, when global food price inflation began to accelerate, Turkish food prices have risen by 479%, one of the highest food inflation rates in the world, as shown by&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/ag-price-impact-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Agricultural Price Inflation Application</a>.&nbsp;Turkey’s inflation has been made worse by the steep drop in the country’s currency, the lira, which has declined in value against the US dollar by 77% over the same three-year time period. Most food imports are priced in US dollars, making them more expensive when purchased with currencies that have weakened against the US dollar.&nbsp;Turkey imposed a three-month export ban on bulk and barrel olive oil shipments, beginning August 1. The trade halt is intended to stay in place until the country completes its upcoming harvest. Turkey also announced new restrictions on&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeAzmZqL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lentil and chickpea</a> exports.Turkey previously imposed bans on exports of bulk olive oil and other food supplies in 2021 and 2022 to address rising domestic prices.&nbsp;The EU is the world’s largest olive oil producer accounting for over 60% of global production. Top olive oil producers in the EU include Spain, which produces nearly 70% of the bloc’s olive oil output, followed by Italy, Greece, and Portugal.&nbsp;

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Global Olive Oil Buyers Stymied by Spain’s Drought, Turkey’s Export Ban

Indonesia’s robusta coffee production could be headed for another lackluster year as hot and dry conditions resulting from El Niño threaten to weaken the 2024 crop and drive up prices.&nbsp;Robusta coffee futures prices are currently at the highest levels seen in nearly a decade, as&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBvlxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display shows</a>. By contrast, prices for Arabica coffee, mostly grown in Brazil, are down sharply from last year’s peaks. Indonesia is the third-largest producer of robusta beans, after Vietnam and Brazil.&nbsp;Coffee crops are highly susceptible to weather volatility. Indonesia’s 2023 robusta crop, which was just harvested, was damaged when&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BlreYqM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">excessive rains</a> in April and May disrupted the cherry development. This caused the country’s recent harvest to decline by 20% to its lowest in more than a decade, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2dawkB3Rn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>.&nbsp;Currently, precipitation in Indonesia’s coffee-growing areas is well below average, and soil moisture readings are at their lowest in 20 years, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. As El Niño ramps up, hotter and drier conditions are expected to settle into the region late this year and linger into early 2024, overlapping with the robusta crop’s crucial flowering period.&nbsp;The strong El Niño event that hit in 2015-16 brought the second-highest drought levels in Indonesia’s coffee-growing regions for the last 20 years, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1095,Indonesia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22RobustaCoffee%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:12,Asia:1095,Indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Drought Index</a>. The 2016 robusta production in the country&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2dawkB3Rn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fell by 12%</a> as a result.El Niño also is predicted to reduce 2024&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/as-la-nina-exits-palm-oil-production-could-rise-in-2023-but-drop-in-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palm oil yields</a> in Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia, the world’s No. 1 and 2 producers of the popular edible oil.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/australia-wheat-crop-headed-for-double-digit-decline-gro-model-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Australia’s wheat</a> harvest also is projected to be down by double digits as a result of El Niño.&nbsp;Robusta beans account for 40% of global coffee production. Arabica beans, which make up the remaining 60%, are usually deemed to be of higher quality and command higher prices than robusta coffee.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxonLB92" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vietnam</a>, the world’s No. 1 robusta producer, could also see 2024 production impacted, as the country tends to see higher temperatures and reduced rainfall during El Niño events.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDZ4WYdV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Brazil’s 2023 robusta crop</a>, currently being harvested, also is projected to be down year over year as below-average rain early in the season stunted coffee cherry development.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;More than half of Indonesia’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QWax8qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">total coffee area</a> is located in Sumatra. Arabica crops dominate in northern Sumatra and some mountainous areas in Java, while robusta is grown mostly in southern Sumatra and lower lands in Java.

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Robusta Coffee Prices Could Get Further Boost From El Niño 

A perfect storm of low humidity, drought, and high winds led to the wildfires that tore across Maui, Hawaii, last week, leaving nearly 100 confirmed dead so far, displacing thousands of residents, and decimating the historic town of Lahaina. While the ignition source has not yet been identified, the event highlights the crucial role that technology can play in predicting and managing such disasters to, at the very least, avoid the death of residents, and to minimize potential damage.Gro’s fire risk and management model, Gro Climate Indicator (GCI): Fire Weather Index, is designed to assess and analyze on a daily basis factors that contribute to the likelihood and behavior of wildfires at a global scale. The index uses critical weather variables — including temperature, humidity, wind, and fuel moisture content — to provide insights into the possible ignition, spread, and intensity of fires, with the aim of enhancing fire-management strategies at the district, province, and national levels globally.Gro’s model indicates that Maui had been experiencing conditions conducive to wildfires for months before the ignition. The chart below shows how 2023 FWI values (red line) for Maui have been well above historical averages since June.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1692282261/new-website/Gro_Fire_Weather_Index_Maui_1_e281ff3e9e.png"></figure>The FWI detects decreases in rainfall and relative humidity paired with increasing surface winds. This combination of variables can provide an early warning for regions in danger to take preventative action to guard against wildfires.Wildfire intensity is determined by the conditions leading up to the ignition, not just on the day of the event. In Maui, months of hot and dry weather have desiccated live vegetation and dead plant matter, creating prime fuel sources for wildfire. Hawaii has also been battered by strong, dry winds from the eastern Pacific Ocean, which intensified as Hurricane Dora passed hundreds of miles south of the islands.Areas in red in the time-lapse image below show areas where fire weather conditions have been especially high in the period from May 1 to August 5, 2023. Note that much of California and other parts of the West Coast are also at heightened risk.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1692031755/new-website/Hawaii_Fire_Date_min_eac1ca9925.gif"></figure>&nbsp;Gro Intelligence's GCI: Fire Weather Index aims to provide stakeholders with valuable insights to effectively allocate resources and mitigate the devastating impact of wildfires. These proactive measures are essential for safeguarding lives and property.&nbsp;

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Wildfire Warning Signs Flashed on Maui Months Ago, Gro’s Fire Weather Index Shows

Canada’s canola crop is straining under hot and dry weather conditions that threaten to reduce harvests in the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9Q3NE7qm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">biggest producer</a> of the popular vegetable oil.&nbsp;Canada’s canola production potential will be critical this year as global stocks of&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeAZeZqL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rapeseed</a> and other major oilseeds, such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-acreage-cut-looks-to-shrink-soybean-stocks-further" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US soybeans</a>, are minimal and Russia blockades Ukrainian sunflower oil exports, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/wheat-futures-spike-on-russian-escalation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. In addition, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture announced it was extending an existing ban on rapeseed exports for another six months, through February 2024.&nbsp;Gro’s vegetative health index, weighted for Canada’s canola growing regions, has slumped over the past three weeks, as seen in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1037,Canada$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Canola%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1037,Canada" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this display</a> from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. That comes amid a steady decline in soil moisture levels — currently the lowest since at least 2010 —&nbsp; and a rise in the Gro Drought Index, which currently indicates “moderate” drought conditions across canola planted areas.&nbsp;Alberta, the second-biggest canola producing province after Saskatchewan, is the driest, with Gro Drought Index readings bordering on “severe” drought conditions, as shown in&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10556,Alberta$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Canola%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1037,Canada:10556,Alberta" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro Navigator display</a>. GFS forecasts in Gro call for limited rain this week across Canada’s canola belt.&nbsp;Canola is the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMjzZ9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second-largest produced crop</a> in Canada, behind wheat. This season, Canadian canola farmers increased acreage for spring planting: StatCan projects canola planted area will increase 3.2% year over year to 8.9 million hectares (22 million acres). Canada has nearly doubled its&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwxJ9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">canola acreage</a> since the early 2000s.&nbsp;Canola, the genetically modified version of rapeseed, is used for cooking and baking at home, restaurants, and in food processing plants. Canola oil also has non-food uses in biodiesel and bio-plastics. Canola meal, the part left over after the seeds are crushed and the oil extracted, is used for animal feed, pet food, and fertilizer.Global edible oil supplies also are forecast to be negatively impacted in the coming months as the El Niño weather pattern strengthens, likely bringing smaller yields from palm oil plantations in key producers Indonesia and Malaysia, as Gro wrote about&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/an-impending-el-nino-foreshadows-a-new-shake-up-for-global-food-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. And in Australia, canola production could drop following three straight years of bumper harvests. ABARES projects a 41% year-over-year decline in canola production to 4.9 million tonnes in 2023/24, a four-year low.&nbsp;This season’s dry conditions also are weighing on Canada’s spring wheat crop. Accumulated precipitation is 30% below the 10-year average, the lowest amount since 2009,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> shows. And yield projections by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/models/canada-wheat-yield-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro's Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> have dropped significantly since the model went live for the season. The machine-learning model provides daily updated predictions of final yields down to the provincial level.&nbsp;

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Canada Canola Outlook Weakens, Gro Models Show

Prospects for Texas’ cotton crop, which accounts for one third of US cotton production, are wilting amid the ongoing heatwave. Record temperatures are also threatening the crop in China, the world’s No. 1 cotton producer and importer, and the&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd33yjxdo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global cotton industry</a> may look to India to help boost supplies.&nbsp;Triple-digit heat has been scorching the southern US for nearly 40 consecutive days. While cotton is more heat-tolerant than many other plants, excessive temperatures during its reproductive phase can increase boll shedding, lowering yields.&nbsp;Current soil moisture levels in Texas’ cotton-growing areas are among the lowest in over 20 years, as shown in&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/us-crop-insights/us-insights?crop=Cotton&amp;state=Texas&amp;tab=Climate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Farmer Profitability App</a>. Only&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kR0g0X0qz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">26% of the crop is currently rated “good-to-excellent,”</a> according to the USDA, after declining seven points in the week ended July 16.&nbsp;Land surface temperatures in Texas’ cotton-growing regions have exceeded 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) consistently since mid-June.&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/analogous-periods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Analogous Periods model</a> — which identifies past years with similar growing conditions including temperature, drought, rainfall, and vegetative health — shows that the year with the most similar readings was 2019, which saw yields decline by 25%.While drought levels have improved from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gro-intelligence.com/insights/texas-heat-wave-could-slash-cotton-production-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">last year</a>, crop conditions in Texas will likely deteriorate further as excessive heat is forecast to continue in the coming weeks.&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/13094,Texas$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cotton%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_2?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States:13094,Texas" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a> weighted for cotton planted areas in Texas shows heat indices well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) lingering into August, with little rain in sight.&nbsp;The outlook for China’s cotton crop offers no relief. Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator shows t<a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWYmx_e1yajHf7u7RDiBPAlKnDFQONxyW5iXotQLmTY/edit#:~:text=https%3A//hub.gro%2Dintelligence.com/plot%2Dregion/agriculture/1231%2CChina%2C%2520mainland%24%257B%2522checked%2522%253A%255B%2522Cotton%2522%255D%252C%2522method%2522%253A%2522sum%2522%257D_0%3F0%2CWorld%3A12%2CAsia%3A1231%2CChina%2C%2520mainland" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">he third-highest drought reading</a> in the country for this time since at least 2003. Drought conditions are expected to worsen with high temperatures and limited rainfall in the forecast.&nbsp;Temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) have also been recorded In the autonomous province of Xinjiang, where 90% of China’s cotton is produced. Additionally, cotton acreage in the country is down by around 10% this season, as the government aims to boost its grain capacity in a new effort to bolster food security. Any further reductions in China’s cotton production could drive it to purchase more from the international market.However, India, the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daEO17dn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second-largest cotton producer</a>, and the third-largest exporter, could provide some much needed relief to global supplies. The current monsoon season is faring well, with&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1094,India$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cotton%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a> showing above-average precipitation in the country’s cotton-growing regions. An uptick in India’s cotton production could offset the shortfall out of the US and China.

Geospatial data at Gro

What is geospatial data?

Leverage Gro's geospatial data to

1.

Monitor crop conditions in real time/near real time

2.

Model yield predictions

3.

See how climate change will affect certain crops in the future

4.

Assess the severity of a flood or drought

Three major features set Gro's geospatial data apart

Earth observation data

Fast zonal aggregations

Multiple variables

Directly in the Gro platform

Read more about Gro's geospatial data