In the agricultural commodities space, pre-season and in-season supply estimates drive daily ending stocks, which in turn drive trade and guide business decisions. But until now, market participants have had to independently discover trustworthy sources, map out their pre-season and in-season crop supplies, and make educated guesses about how crops would be used.
To address this information gap, Gro has been developing forecast models that produce daily-updating ending stocks estimates for a number of commodities.
Our latest forecast models provide Gro users with real-time forecasts for US soybean crush. As the US ranks as the second largest US soybean processor, after China, the daily insights of the US Soybean Crush Forecast Model provides decision-useful information to all soybean industry market participants globally.
Our US Soybean Crush Forecast Model display offers monthly and annual crushing data, as well as a product break out by use.
With Gro’s US Soybean Crush Forecast Model, users can develop soybean crush forecasts before the start of the growing season and in-season. Essentially, this model provides users with the daily ground truth for crush availability - a forecast that impacts soybean and soybean oil prices globally.
Our forecast model is able to do this because it updates daily, while also capturing monthly crush data from USDA NASS crops, WASDE, and USDA PS&D. Other soybean crush estimates, including the USDA’s, make assumptions about the balance sheet and adjust in-season, rather than daily. This means that their forecasts include a time lag that can mislead supply and demand estimates.
The Global Balance Sheet for Soybeans
Our US Soybean Crush Forecast Model is an input for our Global Balance Sheet application for soybeans, which gives users a complete picture of the dynamics driving global soybean prices.
The Global Balance Sheet application for soybeans uses Gro’s Brazil Soybean Crush Forecast Model, Brazil Soybean Export Forecast Model, China Soy Import Forecast Model, Argentina Soybean Export Forecast Model, and our Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model to arrive at daily pre-season and in-season ending stocks estimates.
To learn more about Gro’s Balance Sheets, join us this Thursday, November 18th at 10 am EST. To reserve a spot, sign up here.