Early forecasts generated by Gro’s US Corn and US Soybean Planting Intentions Models show corn acres will substantially outnumber US acres planted to soybeans this year. Amid a general acreage expansion for both crops, the models currently show the US’ soybean-to-corn ratio at a 10-year low for this time of year.
From the beginning of February, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton generate daily national-level projections on planted acres, along with state and regional forecasts. The Models provide users with an early insight into the upcoming US crop supplies and farmers’ input needs. Our acreage models’ final acreage forecasts are available in early March, about three to four weeks before the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report’s release.
Unlike the USDA’s report, which relies on farmer surveys to arrive at estimates of what farmers are expected to plant for the upcoming season, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models consider inputs ranging from the total viable farmland available to plant corn, soybeans, wheat, or cotton to the factors that change the opportunity cost between them.
As the US is one of the world’s largest agricultural producers globally, changes in US planting intentions impact crop supply and prices worldwide. Market participants can also use the models’ state-level planting intention forecasts to predict regional demand for seeds, fertilizer, crop protection supplies, and machinery.
Typically, high fertilizer prices favor soybean plantings over corn because soybeans require much less fertilizer than corn. Currently, fertilizer prices are elevated relative to the 10-year historical average, but this does not appear to be deterring farmers from increasing corn acreage because fertilizer prices are down by more than 40% compared with this time last year.
In early 2022, Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models for corn and soybeans did not account for the surge in fertilizer prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. After we substantially improved these Models to incorporate fertilizer prices, our 2022 estimates for corn and soybeans planting intentions came within 98% of the USDA’s 2022 report, as our latest Performance Report on Gro Yield Forecast Models and Acreage Models shows.
In 2022, Gro’s US Wheat and US Cotton Planting Intentions Models’ acreage estimates were also within 98% of the USDA’s Prospective Planting report.
Contact our team to learn more about Gro’s US Planting Intentions Models, available with a Premium subscription.