Gro Releases Crop Supply/Demand Forecasts Showing Tighter Soy, Corn Markets

Gro Intelligence released its global crop supply and demand forecasts for marketing year 2018/19 today, filling a data gap left by the delay of the USDA’s WASDE report.

Relying on its proprietary supply and demand models, Gro has generated production, usage, and inventory estimates for all major global crops. In all, over 1,000 forecast models covering 35 crops grown around the world are now available to the public on Gro’s website. Gro has been offering free subscriptions to its web app since shortly after the US government shutdown began on Dec. 22. Interested users can go to https://www.gro-intelligence.com/USGovShutdown to access all of Gro’s data.

The Gro report follows a similar format to the analysis and statistical tables in the monthly WASDE, or World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which had been scheduled for release today. Similar to what the USDA does each month, Gro’s forecasts are compared against estimates made in the previous WASDE, which came out Dec. 11. Gro users can also view interactive maps displaying yield estimates for individual districts in major growing regions. Instructions for accessing Gro’s supply and demand forecasts can be found here.

Although the USDA report is considered the gold standard for data among agricultural market participants, the Gro estimates provide markets with the closest alternative to the delayed WASDE. The estimates will leverage Gro’s existing, market-tested, predictive-modeling framework along with the hundreds of trillions of data points available in the platform.

Gro estimates US soybean production in 2018/19 of 4.467 billion bushels, down 133 million bushels from the December WASDE report because of lower anticipated yields. US soybean ending stocks are similarly lower at 817 million bushels, down 138 million bushels. Globally, soybean production estimates are reduced by 11.6 million metric tons to 357.6 million tonnes, hurt in part by recent dry weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.

Gro’s forecast for US corn yields, of 177.4 bushels/acre, also are lower than the December WASDE estimate of 178.9 bushels/acre, curtailing production estimates.

World wheat production is projected lower by 1.1 million tonnes to 732.4 million tonnes, as rising output from Ukraine and Russia is offset by weakness in India.

Gro, which is entirely open about its methodology, has built one of the world’s most comprehensive agricultural data platforms, encompassing more than 40 million unique agriculture-related data series and nearly 500 trillion data points.

In the absence of data updates from the US government, Gro is able to rely for forecasts on its machine-learning-based yield and production forecast models, which update daily on a district level for in-season crops. It also has access to an array of satellite-generated knowledge to assess the current weather’s impact on crops, and country-specific data sources, such as Russia’s ROSSTAT and Brazil’s CONAB, that are available in Gro and that the USDA typically uses to generate WASDE estimates.

Gro will continue to publish its global crop supply and demand estimates free of charge until the US government reopens. We will also be publishing a summary of our methodology on our website in the next couple of weeks. Code to replicate our forecast models will be published in our API library and Gro is offering free 90-day API trials for those interested. Email us at support@gro-intelligence.com to get set up on our API.

The next WASDE report is scheduled for release on Feb. 8, 2019. However, the USDA will need several days to prepare the report. Following the previous longest government shutdown, which ended Jan. 5, 1996, the USDA released its delayed WASDE six business days later. During another government shutdown, the WASDE report for October 2013 was canceled altogether.

About Gro Intelligence:

Gro Intelligence is a data and analytics company that has built one of the world’s most comprehensive agriculture-related data platforms. Gro uses its technology to harvest, translate, and transform approximately 40 million unique data sets and nearly 500 trillion data points across multiple types of data and crop types on a global basis. Gro has also built a suite of machine-learning-based predictive models allowing users to have access to an unprecedented number of data sets and forecasts for production, consumption, trade, and climate globally. Gro has simplified and streamlined the discovery process of data and added a layer of intelligence on top of it.

Customers primarily access the data and Gro’s various analytical models by signing up for free through the Gro website and directly through Gro's API, which is also available free-of-charge to interested parties for a 90-day trial period. Please go to http://www.gro-intelligence.com for more information or contact us at support@gro-intelligence.com.