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Gro and DTN’s 2022 Digital Crop Yield Tour Recap: Lower Estimates Across Corn and Soy

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For the fifth year in a row, Gro Intelligence partnered with DTN for this year’s 2022 Digital Crop Yield Tour

In August and September, Gro Intelligence and DTN looked at growing conditions and yield forecasts for corn and soybeans in the US, leveraging Gro’s Yield Forecast Models.

2022 Digital Crop Yield Tour: Gro Expects USDA to Lower Final Yield Estimates

During the tour, the week of August 8-12, Gro’s Yield Forecast Models pointed to lower yields across corn and soybeans compared to the USDA’s official August estimates, which came in at 175.4 bpa for corn and 51.9 bpa for soybeans. Gro found that growing conditions were poor in key growing regions, with heat and drought conditions weighing on crops, and would likely lead to lower yields.

In a recent article by DTN, Gro’s yield estimates for corn had climbed up by nearly 3 bushels, whereas Gro’s soybean yield estimates had declined by nearly half a bushel. In its September WASDE report, the USDA cut its corn yield estimates to 172.5 bushels per acre and its soybean yield to 50.5 bu/acre, bringing both crops’ yield forecasts closer to Gro’s Corn and Soybean Yield Forecast Models. In the October WASDE, the USDA further cut estimates for both corn and soy.

Gro’s models update daily and incorporate satellite-based data and near real-time environmental and growing conditions, including vegetative health, soil moisture levels, and GFS 16-day forecasts. This unique methodology enables Gro to forecast USDA estimates months in advance. Gro’s models continue to point to lower yields, signaling further USDA yield estimate reductions ahead. Gro expects the USDA’s final January estimates to be closer to our Yield Forecast Models.

"The USDA is high, I would say, relative to what we've been talking about and what we've been seeing," Gro Intelligence Senior Analyst Jon Haines said. "I'm expecting them to come down and come closer to where we are, but they're probably going to do it more slowly.”

For the past six years, Gro’s US national corn yield estimate has been within 1.7% of the USDA final January report by September, and our soybean yield estimate has been within 0.8% of the USDA’s final number by September for the past three years.

Looking Ahead to 2023

The 2022 Digital Crop Yield Tour illustrates the powerful combination of on-the-ground DTN reporting and data, and the Gro platform. Connecting DTN agricultural data and real-time, AI-driven yield forecasts allows for highly accurate, timely crop production estimates. This work can be leveraged by governments, financial institutions, and corporations for better, faster decision-making.

To continue to build on these valuable insights, the DTN and Gro Intelligence partnership will expand in 2023.

If food security and climate risk are important to you and your organization, contact us here to talk to a member of our team.

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